By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-July 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 21 July 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events. ACLED is a living dataset and figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Total number of political violence events: 1,666
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,726
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,020

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Violence has continued to escalate along the Macomia coast over the last fortnight, as well as further inland along the N380 highway. Islamic State (IS) claimed to have killed three soldiers with machine guns in an ambush at Quiterajo on 10 July. A photo report issued by IS on 12 July showed the outpost afire, some seized identity cards, and a haul of weaponry taken from the site of the clash. This has been a particularly intense area of activity after the Mozambican Defense Armed Forces (FADM) and the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) launched a counter-insurgency operation on 27 June. One source told Cabo Ligado that seven South African troops have been wounded in this operation so far, but this has not been confirmed.

Approximately 20 kilometers north, at Limala, in Mocímboa da Praia district, insurgents engaged security forces on 10 July, likely a Rwanda Security Forces (RSF) mobile unit, but FADM forces are also based in the area. Several casualties were reported, but this has not yet been verified. One local source claimed the insurgents were forced to retreat and their supplies were seized by security forces, providing a photograph of bedding, backpacks, and sacks likely containing food.

On 18 July, insurgents attacked again near the village of Cobre/Ilala, where around 10 soldiers had been ambushed and killed two weeks earlier. First, a FADM armored personnel carrier was hit by an IED. A picture of the damaged vehicle, seen by Cabo Ligado, shows its back left wheel was completely destroyed. A command wire was recovered, indicating the device was triggered by remote control, according to a local source. An intense clash between insurgents and security forces was also reported in the area at the same time, for which the IED may have been the set-up. Sources disagree over whether one or six FADM soldiers were killed in the incident. In the 20 July edition of their al-Naba newsletter, IS claimed to have killed one and that the rest fled. The report also contained a picture of weapons seized, which were again displayed in an Amaq News Agency branded video report issued on 25 July through IS social media channels.

As security forces step up their operations, civilians are increasingly at risk of being caught in the crossfire. On 15 July, a man was reportedly shot in the leg by troops from the South African contingent of SAMIM near Ingoane and was rushed to Macomia town for medical treatment. The circumstances of the shooting are not yet known. South African forces deny they were in the area, according to a source.

While most insurgent activity has been concentrated along the coast for several weeks, bands of fighters still remain in northwestern Macomia. IS newspaper al-Naba reported that insurgents captured two fishermen on 9 July near Litamanda, beheaded one as he was believed to be a Christian and released the other, as he was allegedly a Muslim. On 17 July, two decapitated bodies were reportedly found outside Litamanda, a local source claimed. The identity of the second body has not been determined, and it is not clear if either of them is related to the 9 July incident.

Just 5 km south of Litamanda, insurgents were observed moving around Chai in the early hours of 15 July. Military escorts were suspended that day, causing severe traffic disruption on the N380.

Focus: IED in Macomia

The successful deployment of an IED in Cobre/Ilala on 18 June is thought to be the first successful use of a remote detonator by the insurgents. The better-targeted use of IEDs through remote control, allows for tighter control of roads, and the set-up of ambushes. This is likely to restrict the movement of FADM and SAMIM patrols. It may also create fear amongst those forces, with unpredictable results.

The insurgents have been using IEDs since at least September 2021, when one was used against an RSF patrol near Mbau in Mocímboa da Praia district. Since then, ACLED has recorded five such incidents by insurgents in Cabo Delgado prior to the 18 June blast. Though damaging, devices had been mostly rudimentary until last week, according to sources. Pressure plate switches relied to an extent on chance and unreliable detonators. Remote control devices give much greater control over targeting and impact.

Remote detonators have been in development for some time. According to the United Nations December 2022 report of its IS sanctions monitoring team, evidence of their production has been found in insurgent bases by “member states,” most likely referring to Rwanda, or personnel contributing countries of SAMIM. A previous UN report from February 2021 noted that IS affiliates in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique had been receiving technical and financial support since September 2020 at least.

Remote detonation allows for more tactical sophistication, with significant implications. IED incidents in March in Muidumbe district, hitting vehicles of the Botswana contingent of SAMIM, are thought to have aimed to hinder access to areas where the insurgents have a base. Last week’s remote detonation was offensive, likely setting up the clash with FADM. Fear of such attacks will restrict the movement of both FADM and SAMIM forces along the road, known as Estrada Antigua, that runs along the coast. Without the deployment of coastal marine patrols, this will strengthen insurgent control of the coastal strip, while allowing movement between the coast and bases further inland in the district. The incident may also create fear amongst troops deployed to the area, as well as distrust by them of local communities, conditions that may hamper intelligence gathering.

The incident also has cost implications. The damaged vehicle was a Marauder armored personnel carrier, supplied by South African firm Paramount. Removal of the vehicle, damage assessment, and repair will be expensive, while the vehicle’s absence will restrict mobility.

Finally, there may be implications for international intervention. In recent weeks, FADM has been supported in patrolling this part of Macomia by the South African contingent of SAMIM. The Mozambique government is understood to be keen that SAMIM withdraw by July 2024, and start reducing numbers by December 2023. In order to allow this to happen, it is understood to have requested strengthened SAMIM engagement in the coming months prior to drawdown. With just five months remaining, clearing insurgents from coastal Macomia has become more challenging.

Round-Up

Civil servants return to Cabo Delgado

More than 70% of civil servants in Cabo Delgado who fled the conflict have now returned to the province, the deputy minister of state administration and public services, Inocêncio Impissa, revealed. He also announced that 70% of the population is back in Quissanga district and the figure is approaching 75-80% in other areas.

New RSF troop rotation prepares to deploy to Cabo Delgado

Rwanda's Chief of Defence Staff Lt. Gen. Mubarakh Muganga, met security forces preparing to deploy to Mozambique's Cabo Delgado Province, and replace the current deployment. Maj. Gen. Alexis Kagame (no relation to President Paul Kagame) will lead this new RSF contingent. The ministry statement did not give dates for the rotation.

List of designated terrorists released by Mozambican government

The Mozambican government has released a list of 43 individuals labeled as terrorists under counter-terrorism laws, including Bonomade Machude Omar and Abu Yasir Hassan, alleged leaders of the Cabo Delgado insurgency. Both Omar and Hassan have also been designated as terrorists by the US and the EU. Most on the list are Mozambicans, some Tanzanians, and one was a former member of Mozambique's armed forces.

Decree announcing the integration of Local Forces into FADM published

The decree approving the integration of Local Forces into FADM, which came into law on 14 April, has been published. Under the decree, Local Forces are defined as a temporary organization drawn from communities which can be activated when there are threats to national security. It will be under the oversight of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the FADM. Its responsibilities include surveillance, coordinating operations with security forces, and respecting human rights.

Cabo Ligado Update: 10-23 July 2023