• Total number of political violence events: 1,708

• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,797

• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,053

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

The last fortnight saw three confirmed attacks, concentrated in the districts of Muidumbe and Mocímboa da Praia. On 12 November, at least two fishermen from Chai were killed near Lake Nguri in Muidumbe, though some local sources claim it could have been as many as four and a woman was also raped. The insurgents appeared in Nguri wearing military uniforms, according to Carta de Moçambique. Nguri is less than 15 kilometers from the village of Novo Cabo Delgado, which insurgents attacked two days before.

Insurgents struck again on 16 November in Mapate village in Muidumbe, approximately 30 km west of Nguri, and less than seven km north of the Messalo river. Two people were beheaded and several girls were kidnapped, a local source reported. Islamic State (IS) claimed via social media to have clashed with Local Forces and burned more than 30 homes, but did not mention having killed anyone. The next morning, Local Forces launched a dawn raid on insurgent positions in the forests by the Messalo River south of Mapate village, but they were not able to recover the kidnapped girls, according to a local source. In neighboring Mueda district, Local Forces in the area introduced a curfew on 19 November, limiting movements after 8 pm.

On 22 November, insurgents attacked Nantadora village (also known as Antadora) in western Mocímboa da Praia district, just a few kilometers north of Lake Nguri, burning several homes and looting goods, including food and bicycles, but there were no reported fatalities. IS claimed responsibility for the attack on social media. Rwandan Security Forces (RSF) responded to the incident but it is not clear if insurgents were still there when they arrived.

Insurgents also appeared in Calugo in Mocímboa da Praia district on 15 November and threatened to kill people if they did not provide rice seeds. Once they procured the seeds, they left without harming anyone. RSF attempted to pursue them the next day but were unsuccessful, a local source reported.

Focus: Insurgents Return to Messalo River 

Incidents in the past fortnight indicate that some insurgents have managed to return to the Messalo river area. The Messalo river has provided refuge for the insurgents from the beginning. Removing the Mbau, Siri 1 and Siri 2 bases were amongst the first objectives of the international intervention forces in 2021. With their numbers now greatly reduced, their presence is probably better described as camps than bases. Nevertheless, when combined with those remaining in Catupa forest, they will present a security risk across Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia, Meluco, Muidumbe, Mueda and Nangade districts. Those facing that risk are village dwellers, many of them returnees, and Local Forces. 

Earlier in the month, the movement of fighters southward, in the direction of Quissanga, was likely an effort to avoid RSF and Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) operations in Catupa forest as part of the ongoing Operation Golpe Duro. The southerly push allowed them to cross the N380 south of Macomia town, before turning north to the Messalo. This likely accounts for movement of fighters in the week of 13 November near the villages of Onumoz and Chicomo. Both villages are west of the N380 in Macomia district. 

According to one source, the group has laid Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in this area, likely as a defensive move to prevent approaches by international forces towards the new Messalo river bases. As well as being a defensive measure for the Messalo river camps, IEDs also help maintain insurgents' right of way between Messalo and Catupa. 

As the Mapate incident in Muidumbe district illustrates, Local Forces are the first line of defense that communities have against insurgents. According to one source, they are the only Mozambican force positioned in the southern lowlands of Muidumbe district. Efforts are being made to regularize these militias. In Mueda district to the west, Local Force members in Mueda have been processing birth certificates and other forms of identification in order to receive allowances, according to another source. In the months to come, Mueda and Muidumbe districts will be particularly at risk, with SAMIM to start reducing troop numbers from December. 

In northern Macomia district, as in Muidumbe, the Local Forces have been critical recently. They were the first responders to the 10 November attack on Novo Cabo Delgado village. Insurgents were seen in the area in the past fortnight, taking food from villagers’ stores in Litandacua village according to one source. The village was empty, having been abandoned earlier in the month. RSF provided safety to those who fled to Chai village in the wake of the Novo Cabo Delgado attack. The greater threat perhaps lies in areas where the insurgents have maintained some presence, but where Local Forces are absent. These include southern Mocímboa da Praia district, and coastal Macomia. The latter in particular will be vulnerable if SAMIM troops pull out, perhaps necessitating an expansion of the RSF’s area of responsibility. 

Round Up

Constitutional Council gives victory to Renamo in four municipalities 

The Constitutional Council has ruled that opposition party Renamo won October local elections in the municipalities of Chiure in Cabo Delgado, Quelimane and Alto Molócue in Zambézia province, and Vilankulo in Inhambane province, overturning results which initially declared Frelimo the winner. Frelimo's wins in the cities of Maputo, Matola, and Nampula were upheld. The Constitutional Council also ruled that elections be re-run in Marromeu in Sofala province, Gurué and Milange in Zambézia province, and Nacala-Porto in Nampula province. 

Consequently, the National Electoral Council has proposed that re-run elections be held on 10 December.  ACLED data suggests that there is a risk of unrest. ACLED recorded election-related violence in both Gurué and Nacala-Porto in October, including one fatality in Nacala-Porto. It also records one fatality in Angoche, Nampula province on 16 November, when police opened fire on a Renamo demonstration organized to protest the results. This came the day after Renamo declared victory in 21 municipalities, including Angoche. 

CISLAMO’s Sheikh Aminuddin speaks of dialogue 

President of the Islamic Council of Mozambique (CISLAMO) Sheikh Aminuddin Muhammad last week raised the prospect of dialogue in Cabo Delgado. Speaking in Luanda, Angola, Lusa news agency reported him as saying that an initiative he is involved in will next year explore “channels for dialogue with the insurgents.” The initiative referred to is presumably the Peacemaking Advisory Group (PAG). The PAG, a regional, civil-society led initiative, with members from Mozambique, including Sheikh Aminuddin, has been exploring options for community dialogue with a view to “conflict transformation.” Cabo Ligado understands that PAG has no intention of initiating talks with the insurgents, but aims to support dialogue at different levels in Cabo Delgado over the coming year. 

UN human rights expert visits Cabo Delgado

United Nations Special Rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons, Gaviria Betancur, completed a 13-day trip to Mozambique on 21 November. Her end of mission statement drew attention to a wide range of issues. While recognizing that much return was voluntary, she noted some level of coercion, and questioned the role of the military, both Mozambican and intervention forces, in facilitating return. She also noted protection issues facing both displaced people and returnees, including access to justice, and the risk of sexual exploitation and abuse faced by women and girls. 

Her remit was not limited to the effects of the conflict. She also questioned the impact of displacement and resettlement arising from extractive industry projects. Betancur did not discuss allegations of human rights abuses committed by security forces. Her full report will be presented to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva in June 2024.

Mandatory military service to be extended to five years

Mozambique's parliament has given initial approval to a law extending compulsory military service from two to five years for general service and up to six for special forces, aiming to bolster the army's professionalism and retain experience. The details of the law have not yet been published. Currently, everyone turning 18 years old must register with the Ministry of Defence but only a minority are enlisted. The success of this reform will likely depend on the willingness to address corruption in recruitment, an issue which affects both the military and the police. 

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