Cabo Ligado Update: 16-29 October 2023

November 2, 2023 Cabo Ligado

Total number of political violence events: 1,704
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,786
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,047

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

The last two weeks have been marked by a determined migration of insurgents southward from Macomia district into Quissanga district, prompting security forces to reinforce the northern approach to Pemba. Meanwhile, insurgent violence also continued in the north of Cabo Delgado province. Around twenty insurgents attacked the village of Chinda in Mocímboa da Praia on 18 October, burning about a dozen houses. More than 2,500 people fled from Chinda and neighboring Awasse on the N380 road, according to Brito Simango, a reporter for state broadcaster TVM. Rwanda Security Forces based nearby quickly intervened and no one was reported killed. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack.

Insurgents also kidnapped several people in Macomia and Mocímboa da Praia districts. IS claimed the kidnapping of a man on 15 October around Chicuemba, approximately six kilometers from Chinda. IS reported that the man was Christian, although it always claims to exclusively target Christians. The next day, three men were kidnapped by insurgents just north of Awasse in Mocímboa da Praia, a local source claimed. Two more were kidnapped outside the village of Litandacua in Macomia as they were returning from fishing at Lake Nguri on 20 October. One source reported that several fishermen returning to Pangane in Macomia have also disappeared in recent weeks and are believed to have been kidnapped or recruited into the insurgency. Pangane was abandoned on 20 September after insurgents abducted around 30 people from the area.

The movement of insurgents south seemingly began on 19 October, when a group of fighters was seen passing through the villages of Nambo, Messano, and Lumuamua in the Mucojo administrative post of Macomia, telling locals to rebuild their lives and that the violence of the past was over. The next day, around 40 insurgents were seen again in the Mucojo area and announced their plan to go to Metuge district. Two days after that, another large group marched through the Olumbwa area of Mucojo and told locals they were headed to Mieze in Metuge, just outside Pemba, where many captured insurgents are imprisoned. The insurgents spoke the local languages of Kimuani, Emakwa, and Kiswahili, according to Carta de Moçambique.

On 20 October, local sources reported the first sighting of insurgents in Quissanga district since 25 September last year in the woods outside Cagembe village, causing some to flee to Pemba. Five days later, insurgents were seen spread out across the north of Quissanga in the villages of Bilibiza, Nivico, Manica, and Linde. A group of around 20 insurgents were observed outside Cagembe again on 28 and 29 October, suggesting an encampment had been set up near the village. One source claimed they carried some bladed weapons and showed signs of hunger, while another told Cabo Ligado the insurgents tried to assure locals that they should not be afraid and should continue working in the fields.

Security forces increased their alert level and sent more troops to Quissanga and Metuge in response to these movements. Unconfirmed reports claim a boat of approximately 40 insurgents attempted a landing somewhere north of Pemba on 25 October but turned back due to the increased presence of security forces in the area.

Focus: Post-Election Political Violence

The results of the 11 October municipal elections remain contested even after the National Election Commission (CNE) confirmed on 26 October that Frelimo had taken control of 64 of 65 municipalities. ACLED records 14 incidents of rioting or protest between 16 and 27 October, days for which opposition party Renamo called for protests. The greatest concentration of incidents was in Nampula province, where the election results saw Renamo lose control of the municipalities of Nampula, Nacala-Porto, Angoche, and Ilha de Moçambique. In central Mozambique, incidents were recorded in Zambezia and Tete provinces. Maputo also saw violence after the CNE confirmed the election results.

In Nampula province, elections were contested in five municipalities - Angoche, Ilha de Moçambique, Malema, Nacala-Porto, and Nampula. Disorder was recorded in the cities of Nampula and Nacala-Porto, where the results returned control of both municipalities to Frelimo from Renamo. Initial responses were relatively muted, with peaceful protests undertaken by Renamo supporters on 17 October in Nampula city, protesting the preliminary results that gave victory there to Frelimo.

More serious trouble occurred in those two cities on 26 and 27 October, when police used live gunfire against Renamo demonstrators who had blocked roads with burning tires, and also attacked property. One man was killed in street violence on 26 October in Nacala-Porto, while one child was shot dead in the trouble in Nampula city the following day. According to Nampula Central Hospital, at least nine people were wounded by bullets. Over 100 arrests were recorded across the province, according to police. According to the Centre for Public Integrity (CIP), the demonstrators in Nampula city attempted to block access to the city by closing off roads and the railway. CIP claims that there were six deaths in total in Nampula city and Nacala-Porto.

Police claimed that the trouble on 26 and 27 October was orchestrated by Renamo and that the party had prepared primitive explosive devices. According to police spokesperson Zacarias Nacute, a file has been prepared for consideration by the public prosecutor on Renamo’s mayoral candidates for Nampula and Nacala-Porto, Paulo Vahanle and Raul Novinte, as well as against the party’s delegate for Nampula, Abiba Aba.

Central Mozambique was more quiet. In Quelimane, capital of Zambézia province, demonstrations were also held after the initial release of preliminary results on 16 October, and again on 27 October, where two arrests were made. In Milange, in the north of the province on the border with Malawi, the body of a polling station official was found dead on the side of a busy road. CIP suspects that his death may be linked to ballot box stuffing allegations. In Tete province, Renamo supporters demonstrated and blocked streets in Moatize on 17 October. Four people were arrested, and police fired shots in the air to clear demonstrators.

In Maputo, demonstrations held on 17, 19, and 20 October were relatively peaceful. Things deteriorated on 27 October, when demonstrations were broken up by police, who were joined by plainclothes security officers armed with AK47s, which they shot in the air to clear crowds.

Tuesday 31 October was the deadline for electoral appeals to be brought to the Constitutional Council, the body charged with electoral litigation. On 1 November, it ordered that partial recounts be undertaken in Quelimane and Alto Molócuè municipalities in Zambézia province, Nacala-Porto in Nampula, and Moatize in Tete. Even if this is to Renamo’s satisfaction, the widespread violence following the municipal elections suggests that the electoral process for next year’s general election will not be smooth.

Round-Up

Observers claim Renamo won local election in Chiure

Mozambique’s National Election Commission voted to confirm the results of this month’s local elections, giving victory to Frelimo in all of the Cabo Delgado municipalities where elections were held: Pemba, Montepuez, Balama, Ibo, Mueda, Mocímboa da Praia, and Chiure. However, a parallel count of result notices posted outside polling stations in Chiure, overseen by More Integrity, a consortium of election observers, found that Renamo had won by 800 votes in the district. So far, the embassies of the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, and Canada in Maputo have issued statements expressing concerns over allegations of election irregularities.

Indian oil minister discusses LNG restart in Mozambique

India’s Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep S. Puri concluded a three-day trip to Mozambique on 31 October to discuss the resumption of the $20 billion TotalEnergies-led LNG project in Cabo Delgado in which Indian-government owned enterprises hold a 30% stake. Puri’s visit included an inspection of the LNG site in Cabo Delgado.

UK and France warn of imminent attacks in southern Tanzania, Mocímboa da Praia, and Palma

The United Kingdom has issued a travel advisory warning against all but essential travel to Tanzania’s southern border with Cabo Delgado due to an elevated risk of ‘terrorist’ attacks. The French government also warned of jihadist attacks on Mtwara in southern Tanzania, and Palma and Mocímboa da Praia via its Fil d’Ariane travel advice service on 27 October. Sources in Mtwara town say that there has been a heightened security presence there since last week, suggesting there was intelligence pointing to a threat in the town.