Cabo Ligado Update: 2-15 October 2023

October 19, 2023 Cabo Ligado

Total number of political violence events: 1,695
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,780
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,044

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Following an escalation of violence in the latter half of September, insurgents have largely remained hidden in the bush for the past two weeks. The only confirmed sighting of insurgents was near Chai in Macomia district, where several fighters beheaded two men who were out hunting on 13 October. The insurgents, reportedly dressed in military uniform, were moving east toward Nova Zambézia when they encountered the hunters, a local source told Cabo Ligado.

Fears of an attack on Mocímboa da Praia town to disrupt the municipal election on 11 October did not materialize. However, the Police of the Republic of Mozambique (PRM) shot and killed at least one man in Chiúre district during a protest against alleged election fraud by the ruling party Frelimo. The victim was a member of the opposition Renamo party, according to Carta de Moçambique. PRM spokesperson Mário Adolfo confirmed the killing but identified the victim as a sixteen-year-old boy who was not a member of any political party. At least two others were injured and received treatment at Chiúre district hospital.

Although the municipal election passed off peacefully, the approach of three boats on 13 October put security forces in the town on high alert. RSF cleared the seafront that morning, fearing insurgent infiltration according to local sources. The approaching boats turned out to be benign, with one source saying they had come from Zanzibar.

Insurgents continued to lay IEDs. On 4 October, Rwandan Security Forces (RSF) safely disposed of three IEDs along the Mbau-Limala road, according to a local source. Islamic State (IS) claimed to have killed and injured several members of the Mozambican and Southern African Development Community forces in three explosions on 3 October, which may refer to the same incident. Insurgents have planted IEDs on this road before, most recently on 23 September.

Meanwhile, in the Chai area in northern Macomia district, long been troubled by insurgent activity, communication between locals and state security forces remains poor. Unidentified individuals, likely insurgents, are often spotted in the woods by local civilians but are rarely reported to Mozambican forces for fear of reprisals from insurgent fighters, according to a local source.

Focus: Municipal Elections in Cabo Delgado

The 11 October municipal election passed off mostly peacefully in Cabo Delgado. Provisional results indicate that Frelimo won elections in the province’s seven municipalities, and in 64 of 65 municipalities nationwide, though some of these are now being challenged in the courts. In Cabo Delgado province, Frelimo retained power in six municipalities and regained control of Chiure, the only municipality in the province where political violence was reported. Yet in Cabo Delgado, as nationwide, there are doubts over the process and the results.

Mozambique employs a list system for municipal elections. Parties present the electorate with a list of candidates, and seats are distributed on the basis of each party’s share of the vote. The candidate heading the winning party’s list in any municipality becomes that municipality’s Council President, often referred to as mayor.

The poll in Mocímboa da Praia passed uneventfully, with Frelimo retaining control of the elected council. Heading Frelimo’s list in Mocímboa da Praia was Helena Bandeira. With provisional results showing Frelimo to have received over 60% of the vote, Bandeira will in the coming weeks take office as Council President. A native of Mocímboa da Praia, Bandeira has been based in Nampula, from where she has in recent years led the Association for the Promotion of Modern Cooperativism.

The electoral campaign, voting, and vote counting in the town proceeded without incident. According to local sources, police were present at polling stations, with RSF nearby at all times. According to one source, when “there was disagreement between party members, [RSF] appeared to calm both parties and advise that violence was never the solution to problems.” According to another, there was “a police presence, and the Rwandan force was always nearby and attentive, to stop the confusion and turmoil that Renamo was already starting.” A third also noted that “thanks to the Rwandans, there were no shots fired.”

Frelimo’s significant majority in Mocímboa da Praia does not necessarily indicate a popular mandate. While the number of registered voters, 30,438, was only slightly lower than 2018, turnout was significantly lower, at just 51% compared to 70% in 2018. Frelimo’s increased share of the vote, despite the turbulence of the past five years, was surprising.

The sources in the town who pointed to the well-ordered conduct of the polls also say the result was greeted skeptically, with many people believing Renamo was the rightful winner. According to one, “the desire for a different government is manifested in everyday conversations, but as most of them are illiterate they have no basis for expressing it legally, they end up in conversations on street corners.” By 17 October, those street corner conversations had evolved into street protests in Mocímboa da Praia, as part of nationwide demonstrations organized by Renamo to protest against election manipulation.

In Chiure in the south of Cabo Delgado province, where Renamo supporters were similarly skeptical of the result, Civil Society Observers say they have evidence of manipulation, and that the actual tally recorded by count officials gave Renamo victory by 800 votes. The results announced by officials gave the municipality to Frelimo by 737 votes. Rather than have “conversations on street corners” skeptical, and unarmed, Renamo supporters took to the streets, where at least one was shot dead by the police.

Round-Up

Palma attack victims file criminal complaint against TotalEnergies

Survivors and families of victims from the insurgent attack on Palma in Cabo Delgado have filed a criminal complaint in a Paris court against TotalEnergies, accusing the company of involuntary manslaughter and failing to rescue those in danger during the attack. The plaintiffs claim that TotalEnergies violated its duty of safety to employees and subcontractors and breached French law by withholding aviation fuel from a private military contractor for evacuation missions.

TotalEnergies denies the charges, insisting they provided help to the victims. The public prosecutor will decide whether to initiate a preliminary investigation. Mozambican victims may join if an investigation is opened. The plaintiffs are supported by Justiça Ambiental, a member of the Friends of the Earth federation, and Friends of the Earth France.

Japan contributes $1.5 million to World Food Programme in Mozambique

Japan has contributed 1.5 million US dollars to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) to aid 50,000 people affected by the conflict in Cabo Delgado. This contribution will provide rice and canned fish to those facing acute food insecurity, of which over 3.3 million people in Mozambique are currently at risk. Japan has contributed a total of $24.7 million to WFP activities in the last four years.

President Nyusi visits Cabo Delgado

President Filipe Nyusi made a one-day visit to the province of Cabo Delgado on 9 October, traveling to the towns of Pemba and Mocímboa da Praia. In Mocímboa da Praia he officially opened an aerodrome and the refurbished port, which were destroyed during the insurgent occupation from 2020-2021.

A Mocímboa da Praia father tells of his fighter son

The 13 October edition of Maputo weekly newspaper Savana contains an interview with a man who claims that prior to the insurgency, his son was an instructor for ‘al-Shabaab’ as the insurgents would become known. He gives an account of the radicalization of his son, and subsequent recruitment that echoes the earliest research conducted on the conflict.

From the mainly Muslim Nanduadua neighborhood that was a stronghold for the group, he tells how his son was given martial training by a Tanzanian entrepreneur in the transport sector, before joining the insurgency after the first attack. The father, a veteran of the liberation war, claims his son burned his house down in the 2020 attack on the town, perhaps symbolizing the generational divide that characterizes the conflict. He told Savana how, like others, he raised his concerns about his son’s activities with the authorities, but was ignored. As the town and province inch towards reconstruction, authorities will need to be much more sensitive to developments in communities than they were before 2017.