Cabo Ligado Update: 22 January-4 February 2024

Feb 8

Situation Summary

Groups of insurgents have made a dramatic move south from Mucojo in Macomia district, crossing the Quissanga district and fanning out across the districts of Metuge, Ancuabe, Mecufi, and Chiure, with some going as far as the Lúrio river bordering Nampula province, ambushing civilians and security forces along the way.

Insurgents began their southern thrust into Quissanga on 19 January, reaching Mussomero, just 4 kilometers from the district headquarters, four days later. Insurgents reached Metuge district on 25 January and split into two groups, with one moving southwest toward Ancuabe district while the other continued south to Mecufi district. President Filipe Nyusi acknowledged these movements in his Heroes’ Day speech on 3 February and claimed insurgents were attempting to divert the advances of security forces away from insurgent bases.

The first attack of this period took place on 28 January, when insurgents beheaded a man in the fields in the Pulo forest in Metuge, near Ancuabe. The killing was confirmed by the Metuge district administrator and the Islamic State (IS), which claimed credit for capturing and killing a man in the area. Local sources told Cabo Ligado that a second civilian was beheaded and three men were kidnapped. Zumbo FM reported that two men were also tortured for professing their Christianity. The next day, some insurgents crossed the N1 highway near Silva Macua and marched south toward Chiure.

In Mecufi, insurgents ambushed two vehicles carrying troops from the Local Force and the Mozambican Armed Defense Forces troops near the village of Nahavara on 30 January, killing eight. Nahavra is located just 10 km from the two highways connecting Pemba to the western mining areas and Nampula to the south. IS published photos of the aftermath of the attack, showing seven of the dead bodies and two burned-out vehicles, as well as captured assault rifles, light machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, and ammunition. Insurgents also attacked the nearby village of Makwaya, kidnapping several people and burning houses, according to a security report seen by Cabo Ligado. The International Organization of Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix reported that 1,460 people in Mecufi were displaced between 22 January and 2 February.

The insurgents continued south, appearing in the village of Napuilimite on 3 February on the way to the Lúrio river, which they were unable to ford due to the flow of the river. It is possible insurgents are attempting to cross into Nampula to pick up recruits, as they have done before, notably in June 2022. Insurgents last attacked Nampula in September 2022.

Meanwhile, insurgents remained active in Macomia district in central Cabo Delgado. Lusa reported that two people were killed and another was kidnapped on 1 February near the village of Chai. A local source claimed one of the victims was beheaded. IS claimed responsibility for killing one. On the coast, security forces retook Mucojo on the Macomia coast without a fight on 31 January, after insurgents occupied the village on 21 January.

Focus: Clearing Macomia’s Coast and Islands

As Macomia’s coast, between Quiterajo to the north and Pangane to the south, has become the stronghold of Islamic State – Mozambique Province (ISM), clearing it has become the state’s priority. An emerging policy of terra queimada, or scorched earth, appears to be the state response to ISM’s efforts over the past year to establish supportive relations with coastal communities. The government’s heavy-handed approach will affect community relations, and, if not properly managed, may fail to defeat ISM.

Since February 2023 at least, ISM has put considerable effort into building supportive relationships with communities in the area. This has allowed the establishment of supply chains for basic goods, often by sea, and likely gives access to intelligence on movements by Mozambique’s Defense and Security Forces (FDS), and troops from the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM). Since the 26 December attack on FADM outposts in Mucojo and Pangane villages, the FDS have been under pressure to gain control of coastal Macomia.

The first step in this has been to clear the area of residents. Speaking in Maputo on Heroes’ Day, President Filipe Nyusi referred to “immediate operation measures” to “occupy and consolidate strategic positions in Mucojo, Pangane, and Quiterajo.” According to sources, all residents between Quiterajo and Mucojo have been told to leave, with many making their way to Macomia, Ibo, and Mieze. This is the opposite of the ‘hearts and minds’ approach that has been adopted by ISM and indicates the level of mistrust between FDS and communities in the area. Relations have not been helped by the FADM’s killing of civilians around Mucojo in January.

Restricting ISM movement at sea is also a priority. At the Heroes’ Day event, President Nyusi stated that FDS wants to “deny the terrorists penetration and mobility by sea, including their resupply from the adjacent islands.” This likely involves patrols to intercept vessels, as well as operations on small islands. Since these operations started, there have been persistent allegations circulating that marine patrols have targeted civilians at sea. One of the first was in the IS weekly newsletter, al-Naba, on 25 January, which alleged killings on Kero Niuni and other islands, as well as drownings at Pangane. Within the Macomia coast community, residents have complained of arrests and killings in recent weeks. Marine traffic along the Macomia coast, including transport of goods and people as well as fishing, has all but stopped, according to local sources. Whatever their outcome, these operations are unlikely to eradicate the threat posed by ISM, instead pushing them further south. In the long term, protracted operations on Macomia’s coast and islands also risk upsetting social and economic life to an extent that will make the reconstruction of state and civil institutions challenging.

Round Up

UN report on IS and al-Qaeda findings for Mozambique

The latest report from the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team makes interesting observations on ISM, which it refers to as Ahlu Sunna wal-Jama’a. The report notes that regional member states estimate the group’s strength at “160 to 200 battle-hardened fighters.” More surprisingly, the team reports that regional member states see no evidence of “command and control” over the group by IS. This contradicts last year’s findings of the UN’s Group of Experts on DRC, which presented evidence of IS funding for ISM. The steady stream of reports and images from Mozambique issued by the IS Central Media Bureau also suggest an ongoing and close relationship.

WFP limits aid in Mocímboa da Praia to orphans

The World Food Programme (WFP) informed the people of Mocímboa da Praia on 21 January that it would limit aid to orphans, sparking a dispute with local community members. The WFP clarified at a public meeting that any orphans, not just those who lost their parents in the conflict, would be eligible, but the community would have to invest in local agriculture to provide for everyone else. People argued that orphans are not the only ones affected by the conflict and that food should be distributed more generally. The WFP is distributing aid based on “vulnerability-based targeting” in seven districts in Cabo Delgado, prioritizing those deemed to be in the most need, as aid agencies in Mozambique grapple with diminishing resources.

Russian ambassador offers to help fight against ISM

The Russian ambassador to Mozambique Alexander Surikov has said Moscow is ready to offer support to fight insurgents in Cabo Delgado if needed. Surikov said the situation did not appear to require urgent intervention, but "if they need any specific help, we are always by their side.”

Rwanda proxy in DRC threatens TPDF

The M23 Movement threatened the Tanzania contingent of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo in a 3 February statement. Stating that it “does not have any particular problem with [Southern African Development Community], especially the Tanzania People's Defence Force (TPDF)”, and that it will seek to “neutralize” TPDF-operated artillery shelling its positions at Masisi, North Kivu province. M23 is widely considered to be backed by Rwanda. In Mozambique, TPDF is deployed under a bilateral agreement, as well as being part of SAMIM. According to Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan, this is to counter the presence of Rwandan troops there. Thus far, TPDF has maintained good relations with the Rwandan Security Forces (RSF) in Mozambique. TPDF’s bilateral force is based at Mandimba in Nangade district, less than 30 km from an RSF base at Pundanhar in neighboring Palma district.

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