Cabo Ligado Update: 24 July-6 August 2023

August 9, 2023 Cabo Ligado

Total number of political violence events: 1,672
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,737
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,028

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

After more than a month of intensifying violence in Cabo Delgado, the last fortnight has been relatively quiet, though insurgents continue to circulate along the Macomia coastline. At least two cases of security forces targeting civilians were also reported. The most significant incident took place around Lake Nguri in Muidumbe district on 30 July, where at least seven civilians were killed. Sources claim that most, or all of the victims were women. It is unclear whether insurgents or the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM) were responsible. The lake lies approximately six kilometers north of Choi, where insurgents are understood to have a base.

In Nangade district headquarters, a Local Force fighter was detained by the police after being accused of raping a 17-year-old on 24 July. A week later, on 1 August, a man was allegedly beaten unconscious in Mocímboa da Praia by the police Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) and was rescued by the Rwanda Security Forces, one source told Cabo Ligado.

Meanwhile, insurgents appeared twice in Pangane in Macomia. First, on 29 July, a large group arrived and bought a variety of goods. About an hour later, a South African military convoy passed the village on patrol, a source claimed. On 3 August, an insurgent group entered Pangane again, led by Muamudo Saha, according to one source. Saha’s background has been profiled by the Mozambican Institute of Social and Economic Studies. On the same day, about 25 insurgents bought fish in Marere village in Mocímboa da Praia, just north of the Macomia border, another source reported, adding that this group was led by Mussa Daniel, another renowned figure in the insurgency, originally from Cobre village, less than 30 km south of Marere.

Online news website Integrity Magazine reported that the insurgent attack in Quiterajo on 10 July, in which Islamic State (IS) claimed to have killed three FADM soldiers, in fact resulted in 25 fatalities after a soldier stepped on a bomb. While it seems unlikely that IS would not have claimed responsibility for these deaths, one source says that up to 28 soldiers were reported missing in action following the incident.

Focus: Pressures Mount on IS

IS announced its latest caliph, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, on 3 August in an audio message from its spokesman distributed through its social media channels, and in print in their weekly al-Naba newsletter. The announcement confirmed the killing in April of his predecessor, Abu Hussein al-Husseini al-Quraishi. His killing had been claimed by Turkey, but IS now asserts that he was killed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group opposed to IS that is based in northwest Syria. Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi is the third caliph to have been killed in less than two years. Like his predecessors, his actual identity has not been revealed. As is their practice, IS has been releasing photosets of its affiliates pledging allegiance to the new leader. By the time of writing, IS had published photosets illustrating the taking of a pledge of allegiance to the new caliph from eight affiliates. Mozambique, and others, is not yet amongst them.

IS is not under pressure at the top only. Support networks in Somalia and South Africa have also been squeezed. On 27 July, the United States Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) placed Abdiweli Mohamed Yusuf on its sanctions list, alleging he heads IS Somalia’s finance operations. These operations are known to channel funding, much of it generated in Somalia, to IS affiliates in East Africa, including in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, and Uganda. This follows the killing by the US military of Bilal al-Sudani, another IS Somalia finance official, in January 2023.

In South Africa, Abdella Hussein Abadigga remains missing following his disappearance from a shopping mall between Johannesburg and Pretoria on 29 December 2022. He, too, had been sanctioned by OFAC, which claimed he was a trusted collaborator of Bilal al-Sudani. Abadigga’s disappearance has been either ignored or misunderstood. Of two recent reports into IS financing in the region, one from Bridgeway Foundation profiled him without mentioning his disappearance, while the United Nations Group of Experts claims that he had been “arrested in South Africa, in late 2022, on the basis of his alleged involvement in a terror threat.” Abadigga was never arrested as such. The South African National Defence Force claims it happened to be in the mall conducting a training exercise at the same time that Abadigga disappeared, but had nothing to do with it. His death is still under investigation by South Africa’s police. On the night of Sunday 6 August, investigating officer Lieutenant-Colonel Frans Mathipa was shot dead while working the case.

For IS’s Mozambique affiliate, the consequences of these developments are hard to measure. The squeezing of IS networks in Somalia and South Africa has likely restricted funding from those sources, a situation likely to continue. In the short term, its members may question the utility of producing yet another set of carefully choreographed pledges of allegiance to yet another unidentified caliph.

Round-Up

Police and army salaries unpaid for two months

Salaries of the Police of the Republic of Mozambique (PRM) and FADM have been unpaid for the past two months. PRM Commander General Bernardino Rafael acknowledged the problem while speaking to officers in Nangade district on 4 August. He claimed that all ranks, including himself, have been affected, and that the problem is due to the migration of payment systems as a result of the introduction of the Single Salary Table.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance confirmed the nature of the problem on 7 August. However, according to the National Director of Accounting Manuel Matavel, 90% of the staff under the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior have been paid following the successful migration of their details.

The problem comes at a particularly difficult time. FADM is in the front line in Macomia district, and has suffered at least 18 fatalities since 30 June. As the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) may reduce troop numbers in December, towards withdrawal next year, its role is crucial in the coming months. PRM, particularly its UIR, also has a critical role in security in the province.

When speaking in Nangade last week, Rafael offered sympathy, and an explanation, but no commitment to when the problem would be fixed. Speaking in Maputo on 7 August, Matavel promised it would be fixed immediately, but committed to giving monthly updates. Further delays will make it more difficult to adequately tackle indiscipline across the security forces, and secure territory beyond Palma and Mocímboa da Praia districts as a possible SAMIM withdrawal looms.

Nyusi visits Cabo Delgado

President Filipe Nyusi began a visit to Cabo Delgado province on 3 August. His trip included the opening of a Millennium BIM bank branch in Palma, marking the return of financial services to the district, and the inauguration of a road connecting the Roma-Negomano road in Mueda district to Tanzania. Nyusi also walked around the market in Mueda district headquarters – his hometown – and greeted local residents. His walkabout was noticeably quick, with not all welcoming his trip to the market. Mueda hospital has been without water since 21 July, and the district, along with Mocímboa da Praia, is currently experiencing a cholera outbreak.

Frelimo to postpone district elections indefinitely

Mozambique's district elections face indefinite postponement following the approval of a constitutional amendment in the National Assembly on 3 August. Originally constitutionally mandated for 2024, the amendment now means that district elections will be held “as soon as conditions are realized.” The ruling Frelimo party contends the delay is necessary due to financial constraints and governance concerns. Opposition party Renamo argues this move undermines democracy. However, the proposed constitutional amendment includes no provision to allow Nyusi to run for a third presidential term, as was rumored.

Mozambique discusses security with Russian and American senior officials

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Mozambican Interior Minister Arsenia Massingue discussed security issues in Maputo on 26 July. The discussions covered counterterrorism, extremism, and organized crime cooperation, with an emphasis on “mutual respect and non-interference in internal matters,” according to the Russian Security Council statement. The following week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to President Nyusi on the phone to discuss security in Cabo Delgado, UN Security Council issues, and regional matters, according to the Department of Defense statement. They also discussed the US 10-year Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability, for which Mozambique is a pilot country.