Situation Summary

Islamic State-backed insurgents have concentrated attacks in the last two weeks along the Messalo river, from the coast of Mocímboa da Praia district to Muidumbe district, where they exclusively targeted civilians.

In Mocímboa da Praia district, at least one person was killed when he drove a Toyota Landcruiser over an IED on the road between Chinda and Mbau on 29 October. Islamic State (IS) later claimed responsibility via a social media post with attached photos of the destroyed vehicle. One of the pictures appeared to be a still from a video clip as the IED exploded, suggesting Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) fighters were close by, and had likely deliberately targeted the civilian vehicle through the use of a command wire. This is the twelfth successful deployment of an IED by ISM since April 2024, six of which have targeted civilians. 

Elsewhere in Mocímboa da Praia, insurgents killed two people in the coastal village of Marere on the coast on 29 October. Insurgents also claimed to have attacked Mbau on 5 November and burned eight homes. ISM have attacked either civilians or civilian infrastructure in Mbau town at least nine times in 2024, despite the presence of a Rwanda Defense Forces (RDF) outpost there. 

In Muidumbe, insurgents killed two people in an attack on the village of Mandela on 4 November in an attack claimed by IS and independently confirmed by the Lusa news agency. On 7 November, insurgents attacked the nearby village of Mapate. IS said it killed one person, while Lusa reported that two were beheaded. On 4 November, insurgents tried to invade the village of Miangalewa but there were no reported casualties. Namacande town, five kilometers to the west, came to a standstill  the attack as a security precaution following the attack, according to a local source.

Insurgents remain active on the Macomia coast more than three months after the start of the combined Mozambican and Rwandan offensive in the area. IS claimed to have ambushed and killed at least two soldiers between the villages of Cobre and Natogo on 6 November. It said the soldiers were Rwandans, but in pictures subsequently shared by IS, the victims were wearing the uniform of Mozambique’s European Union-trained Quick Reaction Force. The IS photo set also includes pictures of captured modified AK-47 assault rifles.

Insurgents may also have appeared in Meluco district. IS claimed to have clashed with Local Forces in the village of Minhanha, which it identified as being in Muidumbe district, and burned four homes. Lusa reported that the next day insurgents attacked a group of loggers at Minhanha in Meluco district, stole a tractor, and kidnapped several people but later released them. It is unclear if IS made a mistake in the transliteration of a Muidumbe placename into Arabic, or got the district wrong in its statement. 

Finally, panic spread through Nangade district on 5 November when insurgents were sighted around the villages of Quinto Congresso, Machava, Mtipuedi, Eduardo Mondlane, and Litingina. Traffic was also suspended on the road between Nangade and Mueda. A local source reported that they believed insurgents were in the district looking for food and supplies. 

Focus: Cabo Delgado insurgency and the election

A month after Mozambique’s general elections, supposed linkages between election-related security arrangements and the Cabo Delgado insurgency have become a prominent talking point in post-election political analysis and rhetoric. This first emerged when rumors started to circulate online that RDF troops had been deployed to Maputo and elsewhere to police demonstrations. More recent analysis has identified election as a driver of ISM activity in Cabo Delgado. ACLED data do not support that.

One of the first reports to claim that RDF had been deployed in Maputo came from the Verdade newspaper on 2 November, citing a source in the police’s Rapid Intervention Unit. Verdade also posted clips that it said supported this claim, though none showed any sign of RDF being in Maputo. The following day, Venancio Mondlane claimed in a Facebook livestream that RDF troops were on the streets in Mozambican military (FADM) uniforms and criticized the European Union (EU), claiming it was funding a potential genocide.   

The EU, which has partly funded Rwanda’s intervention in Cabo Delgado, issued a statement on 4 November, denying claims that their funding was supporting the crackdown on demonstrators. The same day, RDF spokesperson Brigadier General Ronald Rwivanga dismissed the rumors of their deployment outside Cabo Delgado. On 5 November, outgoing President Filipe Nyusi also denied the allegations. Nevertheless, Mozambicans targeted Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s Facebook page with comments demanding the withdrawal of Rwandan forces from both Maputo specifically, and Mozambique entirely. The claims of the RDF’s involvement in policing demonstrations have now dissipated but illustrate the volatile nature of Mozambique’s politics, the prevalence of disinformation, and how it can affect external actors. 

The general elections' impact on the insurgency in Cabo Delgado is examined in a briefing published by the Centre for Public Integrity on 11 November. The report claims that there has been a significant increase in ISM attacks since the election. CIP writes that this was a response by ISM to the redeployment of Mozambican forces out of the province to deal with election-related unrest elsewhere. ACLED data on ISM violence does not support this claim. Violent events involving ISM remained relatively steady in August, September, and October, with ACLED recording 15, 13, and 19 events for each of those months. ISM actions had peaked in July with 31 events, driven by the start of joint FADM/RDF operations against ISM that commenced that month, and continue.  

Round Up

Demonstrators gather at TotalEnergies LNG project site

On 8 November, around 50 demonstrators gathered outside the Afungi LNG site, forcing its temporary closure, Zitamar reports. The demonstrators, carrying banners saying ‘the land belongs to Mozambique,’ raised concerns about issues of outstanding compensation for people from Quituanda, Senga, and Macala villages close to the LNG site. The demonstrations continued on 12 November. 

FADM acquires Airbus transport aircraft

According to a report in Military Africa, FADM has acquired an Airbus C-295 military transport at an estimated cost of approximately 50 million euros. The aircraft is intended to support FADM operations in northern Mozambique. It can carry up to 70 people and be adapted for the transport of heavy cargo. 

Opposition to continue protests against election results

Presidential candidate Mondlane and Podemos leader Albino Forquilha plan to continue protesting against the election results announced by the  National Electoral Commission (CNE). Both Mondlane and Forquilha have denounced the violence and looting during the protests, particularly in Maputo, and blamed police for fuelling the unrest. On the legal front, Podemos has asked the Constitutional Council to order the CNE to repeat the general count as part of efforts to restore 'electoral truth.'

No date for the announcement of the election results by the Constitutional Council

A month has passed since the elections in Mozambique, in which Frelimo and its candidate Daniel Chapo were declared the winners by the CNE. However, the final outcome of the electoral process is not yet known, as the Constitutional Council has not set a date to review and validate the results. The Constitutional Council asked the CNE for the minutes and notices of the partial tabulation of seven provinces and for explanations of the discrepancies between the number of voters in the three elections. However, the CNE missed the eight-day deadline to provide the requested documents.