Situation Summary

Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) militants and security forces were involved in limited violent activity across Cabo Delgado during the first half of October, except for some insurgent movements around the Messalo river and the Catupa forest. Notably, around 100 people believed to have been held in insurgent camps in the Catupa forest surrendered in Macomia town on 11 October. Most were women and children, but local sources claimed that some insurgent fighters also surrendered with the group. The permanent secretary of Macomia district, Cristóvão Alberto, told ZumboFM that he was not aware that any insurgents had turned themselves in.

It is possible that the insurgents are facing a shortage of supplies, forcing them to reduce the number of mouths they have to feed. On 29 September, insurgents looted food from the village of Miangalewa in Muidumbe district, near the Messalo, a local source reported. This follows several food raids in recent weeks. In previous years, insurgents have surrendered fighters and prisoners to cope with food shortages and to allow for greater mobility ahead of big offensives, such as in June 2022.

Local sources reported that the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) have dispatched significant reinforcements to Mucojo on the Macomia coast, possibly with a view to establishing a new camp in the area. One source told Cabo Ligado that around 500 Rwandan soldiers were seen moving to Mucojo on 10 October, though this would represent a significant proportion of the Rwandan force in Cabo Delgado. It is also not clear if there is currently the infrastructure to support that many troops on the coast, which has been heavily bombarded by Rwandan helicopters since late July.

The Islamic State claimed on 14 October to have detonated two IEDs underneath a Rwandan and Mozambican military patrol around Napala village, just outside Mucojo, damaging an armored vehicle and injuring several soldiers. The claim did not give the date of the operation, but undated claims usually refer to an event on the day of the claim itself or the previous day. This has not yet been corroborated by other sources, but it has been previously reported that insurgents have laid improvised explosive devices on key roads leading to Mucojo. The fact that the incident was claimed so promptly on social media suggests insurgents may have been present to manually activate the explosives with a command wire, which they have been known to use before.

In a separate development, two motorcycle taxi drivers were shot dead in Pemba and left lying by a road in the Maringanha neighborhood on 10 October. The perpetrators have not yet been publicly identified, but as there has been no significant military response, it is likely that either the security forces or criminals were responsible. 

Focus: Islamic State Mozambique remains quiet for the election

ISM did not undertake any actions targeting the election process this year, with the vote proceeding peacefully across Cabo Delgado province. This reflects insurgents’ behavior during last year’s municipal elections and the last general elections in 2019. However, though turnout was low in the province, it was actually higher than in some other provinces.  

According to result sheets seen by Cabo Ligado, voter turnout in Macomia district was just 38%. Given the insurgency, a low turnout was expected. However, Macomia’s low turnout reflects what civil society observers are seeing elsewhere, suggesting a deeper malaise in Mozambique’s democracy. The Centre for Public Integrity (CIP) says that turnout was as low as  25% in Zambezia province and 30% in Nampula and Inhambane provinces. CIP predicts a 35% turnout overall. This compares to a national turnout of 51.4% in 2019.

Given the pressure that the RDF is putting on ISM, it is not surprising that they did not carry out election-specific actions. This year, the most significant action undertaken was the IED incident in Macomia around 14 October. The detonation came after the election and was allegedly unrelated but not unexpected, given the suspected widespread deployment of IEDs in the district. Previous elections have similarly not seen an uptick in insurgent activity. In October 2023, the month of the municipal elections, ACLED records a slight decrease in political violence by ISM compared to the previous month. A similar pattern prevailed for the October 2019 general elections. For 2024 at least, this pattern may be explained by their weakened state in light of the RDF offensive.

This persistent pattern is surprising given how central the rejection of democracy and its processes is in violent jihadist ideology. The late jihadist cleric Aboud Rogo of Mombasa regularly addressed the “unislamic” nature of democracy. Though he was never connected to Islamic State, such teachings are typical, and Rogo himself was particularly influential in the insurgency’s early days. If nothing else, the pattern indicates that tactical decisions are not driven by ideology. 

Round Up

Local Force providing day-to-day security in Mueda

A recent report from the Centre for Public Integrity gives insight into the Local Force, and their role in Mueda district in particular. The Local Force has its roots in local militias loyal to Frelimo that were formed to protect communities against insurgent attacks. Legislation passed in 2023 brought these forces under the command of the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM). 

Mueda has the most developed Local Force. The CIP report characterizes their role in Mueda as combining the roles of police, FADM, and the intelligence services. They patrol the streets, arrest suspects, and search premises. Though formally under the authority of the FADM, the report notes poor relations with FADM due to the latter’s mistreatment of civilians. Consequently, only the Local Force patrols in Mueda town. 

European Union approves €20m aid package for Rwandan forces in Mozambique

The European Union has provisionally agreed to provide 20 million euros in aid to support the RSF’s intervention in Cabo Delgado, according to Africa Intelligence. The agreement, which requires the approval of the European Council by 17 November, breaks a months-long deadlock. Rwanda committed to not using the funds for military activities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, which had reportedly been a sticking point in negotiations, according to the report. The aid package would follow a similar €20 million package agreed in 2022.

Ministry of Defence denies alleged killings on Afungi

Mozambique’s Ministry of National Defense has denied allegations made in Politico by journalist Alex Perry that Mozambican security forces tortured and killed civilians on the site of TotalEnergies’ liquified natural gas project on the Afungi peninsula in Cabo Delgado. In a statement, the ministry said the armed forces always act in accordance with “international humanitarian law,” but it would comply with any impartial investigation into the allegations.