By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, Oct. 2017-Sept. 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 15 September 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events. ACLED is a living dataset and figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Total number of political violence events: 1,683
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,774
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,045

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Cabo Delgado saw relatively limited insurgent activity in the last two weeks, except for one major attack on civilians in the village of Naquitengue in Mocímboa da Praia district in which 11 people were killed, according to a claim by Islamic State (IS). A group of eight insurgents arrived in the village on 14 September and called a meeting of the locals where they asked the Muslims to identify themselves before killing the non-Muslims, local sources and Lusa claimed.

That day, insurgents were sighted in the Lake Nguri area of Muidumbe district, approximately 40 kilometers south of Naquitengue. One source told Cabo Ligado that they stole fish from the local community but no casualties were reported.

IS also claimed responsibility for another attack near Mbau in Mocímboa da Praia on 11 September, alleging that its militants detonated an explosive device damaging an armored vehicle. Local sources disagreed over what happened. One told Cabo Ligado that there was no attack and the vehicle was a land cruiser that experienced a mechanical fault and set on fire, while another claimed it was a fuel tanker. Cabo Ligado has so far been unable to establish the facts.

Insurgents remain active along the coast of Macomia district. A group entered Pangane village on 3 September, which they have visited many times in recent months, and assaulted several civilians, reportedly for wearing shorts instead of trousers, a local source told Cabo Ligado. A group of fishermen were also captured by insurgents on 9 or 10 September near Milamba, in the Quiterajo administrative post.

Meanwhile, in Xitaxi in Muidumbe district, Carta de Moçambique reported that up to six alleged insurgents surrendered to the Mozambican military on 10 September. However, another local source claims these insurgents were, in fact, deserters from the Mozambican security forces.

Focus: Naquitengue Killings

Naquitengue is an isolated settlement of about 120 households located around 5 km northeast of Mbau. The road from Mbau to Naquitengue – an unsurfaced track – runs through forested uninhabited territory. The killings in Naquitengue represent a significant departure from the insurgents’ recent practice of targeting the military and security forces.

According to ACLED data, this incident is the first instance since October 2022 where insurgents have killed more than 10 civilians in a single event. This is not surprising. In October 2022, IS Mozambique signaled a new approach of reaching out to communities, giving “Christians and Jews” the options of submitting to Islam, paying taxes, or “endless war.” This was a significant change for the insurgents. In 2018 and 2019, 80% of recorded incidents of political violence involving insurgents targeted civilians. This proportion began to fall, and by 2022, it was just 65%. The change in approach became most apparent this year, with the figure falling to 38% to date.

No such options were on offer in Naquitengue. It was reported that Christians were identified, separated, and shot. IS’s statement of 15 September stated that after this, “they met with the rest of the Muslim population, and urged them to faith and jihad.”

The massacre was even more of a departure in terms of location. Since the start of the conflict, the insurgents have targeted civilians in 30 incidents that have had a fatality count of over 10. Just three of those were in Mocímboa da Praia district. The district is considered to be the epicenter of the insurgency. Their strength there enabled them to control Mocímboa da Praia town for 12 months from August 2020. Despite gaining control of the town in August 2021, Mozambican and Rwandan forces have been unable to remove insurgents from the area, prompting the establishment of a significant Rwanda Security Forces base in Mbau in recent months. If such actions continue in the district, they are likely to be more sectarian in nature, targeting non-Muslims, and Makonde.

Round-Up

Vital Mozambique-Tanzania border crossing reopens

The Namoto border crossing between Mozambique and Tanzania, closed since the insurgent attack on Palma in March 2021, has reopened, benefiting local traders who previously had to use the costly Negomano border post approximately 350 km away. While the road to the border reportedly remains in poor condition, the reopening will facilitate travel and trade between the two countries. Mozambique has been preparing to reopen the border since at least April, but Tanzanian authorities were slower in making the necessary arrangements, according to Carta de Moçambique.

Mozambique and Turkey sign defense industry agreement

The governments of Mozambique and Turkey signed a defense cooperation agreement on 7 September. The details of the agreement have not yet been published, but it will likely facilitate the sale of Turkish military equipment to Mozambique. The agreement was signed by Mozambican Defense Minister Cristóvão Chume while he was on a six-day official visit to Turkey, during which he visited several Turkish defense companies.

More than 850,000 people still displaced, says IOM

Just over 850,000 individuals are still internally displaced in Mozambique, mainly as a result of violent conflict in the north, but also natural disasters, according to a new assessment from the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Rates of return remain significant, with over 540,000 returnees recorded in Cabo Delgado province in the assessment. They are concentrated in Mocímboa da Praia and Palma districts, which account for 54% of all returnees.

Cabo Ligado Update: 4-17 September 2023