Cabo Ligado Weekly: 10-16 October 2022

October 18, 2022 Cabo Ligado

Total number of organized political violence events: 1,473
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,332
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,902

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Insurgent attacks intensified last week, with the majority of violent incidents concentrated in Nangade district. In Ntoli village, 35 km south of Nangade district headquarters, insurgents attacked twice in 24 hours. On the night of 10 October, at approximately 11 pm, armed men raided the newly expanded health center, destroyed several homes, and shot and killed a woman. The following day, insurgents returned, burning more houses and firing their weapons, although residents had evacuated by this time and the village was empty. Photos have appeared on social media showing the health center gutted by fire.

On the afternoon of 11 October, Local Forces arrested four people, including a Tanzanian national, in Nangade district headquarters on suspicion of smuggling medicines to insurgents, according to one source. This, coupled with the raid on the Ntoli Health Center, suggests the insurgent groups may be experiencing critical shortages of medical supplies. Cabo Ligado sources have identified this need as a serious challenge in the past.

On 13 October, insurgents engaged Local Forces at Litandacua, Macomia district, which had previously been attacked just the week before on 8 October when one person was killed and several homes were set on fire. Three militiamen were killed in the latest attack with a number of others injured, one source reported. Islamic State (IS), however, only claimed to have killed one in a post via social media. IS also released a photo featuring materiel allegedly captured from the Local Forces, including assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, explosives, ammunition, and communication equipment, suggesting that if Local Forces were involved, they were likely accompanied by members of the Defense and Security Forces (FDS).

The next day, in Nguida, Ancuabe district, insurgents reportedly warned residents to leave the area. Most promptly fled but some were said to be unable to leave as no transportation would go to the village for fear of being attacked.

On Saturday 15 October, insurgents beheaded a man in the vicinity of Nonia, Ancuabe district. IS published a photo on social media showing armed men posing over the decapitated body with an unfurled IS flag.

Besides these events, insurgents focused their efforts on Nangade, attacking the village of Namuembe on 14 October at 6:30 am. Homes were burned and the village was looted, according to security consultant reports, but no further details have emerged.

Just over 20 km to the east, insurgents launched a midnight assault on Ngalonga village in Nangade on 16 October. Two people were reported killed and one wounded in addition to lootings and the destruction of property. One source told Cabo Ligado that the insurgents were spotted by poachers in the forests near the village of Liche, 15 km south, and warned the Local Forces, who took up defensive positions, forcing the insurgents to attack Ngalonga. However, on 16 October at about 6 pm, insurgents attacked Liche as well. Houses were burned but no casualties have been reported so far.

The same day, Tanzanian armored personnel from the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), who are poorly regarded by the local community for their perceived lack of fighting initiative, accidentally ran over and killed two people on the road.

One success was reported by the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) which announced the capture of a significant stockpile of weapons and ammunition belonging to the insurgents on 15 October. The cache, containing a large number of assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, and ammunition, was discovered in the Mbau area of Mocímboa da Praia district, where the RDF had battled with insurgents in a major operation in August 2021. The RDF offensive forced the withdrawal of IS from the area, which had been one of its main headquarters. Much of the captured equipment appears to be substantially rusted and may not necessarily be functional, which could explain why it was abandoned when the insurgents retreated.

Various sources suggest that there was insurgent activity around the Unity Bridge at Negomano last week. While it has not been possible to verify particular incidents, the range of sources suggests that something took place. On social media there were two ambiguous claims for attacks on the Tanzanian side at some time between 12 and 15 October. A private security source reports one incident in Negomano on 15 October. Tanzanian sources in the area say that there were no attacks on the Tanzanian side, but a number of incidents on the Mozambican side during the week, with fatalities. One source notes that Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) troops were sent across the border, and that border crossings were temporarily suspended at the weekend.

Weekly Focus: Southern Nangade Attacks

While last week’s attacks on the Ntoli Health Center suggest the insurgents are running low on pharmaceutical and medical supplies, they do not necessarily indicate that they have been broken by ongoing operations against them in Nangade district. A handwritten note they left at the site suggested some thought has been given to community relations and the need to explain themselves. Subsequent attacks also suggested they are not on the run, and that contrary to their note, community relations are not the priority.

The note indicates some sensitivity on their part as to how they are perceived. Styled as a “message to Muslims,” it stated that their fight is “against the kafirs and the Christian army and those fighting against us,” and that “we have no problem with you, or your property.” The note ends with a warning that anyone cooperating with the enemy will not be spared, and is signed off as “Islamic State Mozambique Province.”

In the five days following the Ntoli attacks, insurgents appeared first in Namuembe, then Liche, and Ngalonga villages, over territory running eastwards from Ntoli, towards the Nkonga area where there are understood to be insurgent camps. All of these attacks involved property destruction and/or looting. The sequence of attacks suggests, but does not confirm, that there was one group moving eastwards after the Ntoli attacks.

Two attacks in two days in Ntoli indicates the insurgents felt comfortable there. The wider area is not new territory for the insurgents. In Chibabedi, just 10 km north of Ntoli on the R763 route from Nangade to Mueda town, a community leader was killed in an attack on 11 September. On 19 September, Ngangolo, just 8 km further north on the R763, suffered an attack in which only civilians were targeted. Also on that route, a police Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) outpost was attacked at Litingina on 19 August. Namuembe has been repeatedly attacked in the past three months.

Locally, sources have twice in the past fortnight raised concerns about the presence of collaborators in the Local Forces, and alleged that this facilitated the two day operation in Ntoli. The arrest of a Tanzanian on suspicion of supplying pharmaceuticals, recorded in the Situation Summary above, is thought to have prompted the attack on the Ntoli Health Center to get the needed supplies.

The insurgents continuing success in carrying out attacks against security forces and civilians in the same area certainly suggests systematic collaboration, rather than grassroots support from communities, as their note seems to seek.

Government Response

Ahead of the next electoral cycle due to start next year, Mozambican authorities are starting to think about what it means to hold elections in the conflict-hit areas of Cabo Delgado. The President of the National Elections Commission, Carlos Matsinhe, said that although "there are conditions" for municipal elections to be held in Cabo Delgado, security in the area should be reinforced. Matsinhe also said that electoral logistics will have to be adapted given the extent of infrastructure damage in the province.

There are five municipalities in the province of Cabo Delgado: Chiúre, Mocímboa da Praia, Montepuez, Mueda, and Pemba. Two of these, Mocímboa da Praia and Chiúre, are in the conflict-hit area, and the other three have substantial populations of displaced people, which will complicate voter registration. Nevertheless, the government will be very keen to ensure elections can go ahead across the province, in order to support its narrative that life is returning to normal.

The Chairman of Mozambique's Northern Development Agency (ADIN), Armindo Ngunga, said it is too early to expect results from the agency, which was launched two years ago with the aim of promoting economic development as a way of containing insurgency in the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa. Ngunga suggested the agency faces financial struggles, saying it "doesn't have savings anywhere," and said that the priority is to "organize the villages" in order for infrastructure work to begin, especially as displaced people start to return to their home villages only to find basic services lacking. In reality, Ngunga’s statements will do little to quell criticism of ADIN. Initial disbursement of funds to the agency were delayed by disputes between the government and donors over the nature of the violence in Cabo Delgado, and demands for funds for security and defense purposes. During the Frelimo Congress held in September, delegates were privately critical of how little has been done to support the province on the humanitarian and development front. In some quarters there is pressure for an urgent reshuffle at the top of ADIN to address this.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) delivered on 12 October five ambulances to the districts of Quissanga, Muidumbe, Nangade, and Mocímboa da Praia, in Cabo Delgado. UNDP representative Florian Morier said that the delivery was more of a "symbolic" gesture and that the institution will continue to support the government's efforts to rehabilitate Cabo Delgado through capacity building of public services. UNDP also donated communication equipment to the Mozambican police force in Pemba.

Reports emerged of an incident on 12 October in which police officers in Chimoio, Manica province, intercepted a group of 14 Mozambicans, aged 16-38, on suspicion of having been recruited by insurgents. Both Lusa and Integrity Magazine reported the group was allegedly going to perform traditional dances but with conflicting information regarding details of the incident. While Lusa reported that the group was heading to Inhambane, Integrity Magazine reported they were on their way to Cabo Delgado. The police say they find the story strange, but are keeping the youths in detention to help with their inquiries.

EU members are “discussing the provision of support to the Rwandan deployment in Mozambique,” with strong support coming from France, Germany, and Italy, according to anonymous EU officials cited by Bloomberg on 17 October. Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, said in Maputo last month that the plan was to provide €20 million. An EU spokesperson said the Union would “not comment on it until a decision is taken.”

The UN Refugee Agency’s (UNHCR) Assistant High Commissioner for Protection, Gillian Triggs, warned that climate events will increase the needs of those already affected by the conflict in Mozambique, in a statement about the mechanisms to safeguard refugees around the world. Although not directly related to the insurgency, climate change does pose an important challenge to stabilization and long term perspectives of security in the region. This is particularly concerning given the region's already high level of food insecurity, with subsistence and smallholder farmers being impacted directly by extreme weather events.

In a recent statement, Mozambique's Center for Public Integrity (CIP) criticized the government for failing to implement policies to stop “terrorism funding.” Among the flaws, CIP notes the absence of a national risk assessment, insufficient resources allocated to the national criminal investigations service, and lack of coordination between different institutions.