Cabo Ligado Weekly: 11-17 July 2022
By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-July 2022
Figures updated as of 15 July 2022. Organized political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Organized violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.
Total number of organized political violence events: 1,351
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,129
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,791
All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.
Situation Summary
Northern Macomia was again the focus of insurgent violence in Cabo Delgado last week, with two confirmed attacks. On 12 July around 9 pm, insurgents attacked the village of Nkoe, approximately 20 km north of Macomia district headquarters, burning more than 100 houses and injuring at least five people, though no deaths were reported. According to a local source, three of those wounded were seriously injured and required urgent care. A security consultant also reported the attack. Islamic State (IS) social media claimed responsibility for an attack in Nkoe that day, but claimed instead to have clashed with security forces, killing one soldier and injuring another with a grenade. This has not yet been corroborated by other sources. Nkoe has been subject to repeated attacks in recent months.
The next day, insurgents clashed with security forces again around Quinto Congresso, 14 km to the east of Nkoe. A security consultant reported that the battle was intense and a large quantity of arms and ammunition was captured. IS subsequently claimed on social media to have engaged the security forces with machine guns, killing one soldier, wounding another and seizing ammunition. This claim included pictures said to be from the incident at Quinto Congresso, featuring a bloodied body in camouflage fatigues and a stockpile of military equipment, including rocket propelled grenades and at least one mortar round.
Although the rate of attacks in the southern district of Ancuabe has slowed down considerably compared to recent weeks, insurgents retain a presence in the district. On 13 July, insurgents beheaded two men working the fields outside the village of Muaja, less than 10 km from the district border with Montepuez – the furthest west the insurgents have attacked since the start of their southern offensive in June. The wife of one of the men was given their severed heads and told by the insurgents to take them to the village and warn others that they were nearby. A security consultant report claims that the attack sparked panic and the village was evacuated, with many left sleeping out in the bush as there was limited available transportation.
According to a local source, there were 10 attackers, two of whom were armed with guns and the other eight with machetes. This may suggest that at least in Ancuabe, some active insurgent groups are running low on munitions following their southern offensive last month.
Cabo Delgado’s coastal security remains tenuous as insurgents launched attacks last week on Vumba island and Quifuque island, just off the coast of Mocímboa da Praia. On 13 July, 16 insurgents raided Vumba at around 7 pm, looting houses and stealing food, with no reported casualties, according to a security consultant. This was corroborated by another source working in security. Quifuque island was attacked twice, e on the nights of 14 and 15 July, with insurgents destroying several houses and looting large amounts of food and other goods. Insurgents were sighted moving by sailboat in the Quirimbas archipelago further south on 15 July.
Government security forces also reported some success last week. In a speech in Pemba, President Filipe Nyusi claimed that Mozambican forces, with support from the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), captured an insurgent base in the Catupa forest of Macomia, though it appears the base was vacated before government forces arrived.
Security forces also repelled a force of about 10 insurgents on 13 July around the village of Iba in Meluco district without a shot being fired, as reported by online news service Carta de Moçambique. Iba, located just over 40 km east of Meluco district headquarters, was previously attacked by insurgents on 2 July.
Weekly Focus: Beyond Catupa
President Nyusi’s 14 July announcement of the seizure of an insurgents’ base in Catupa forest and the killing of one insurgent leader invites reflection on operations against the insurgency, the continuing challenge presented to the Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and foreign forces, and most importantly, the threat to communities in districts neighboring the dense forest.
As an exercise in strategic communications, President Nyusi’s accounts fell short of the sophistication shown by the insurgents through IS media channels. The insurgents’ attack on the Pundanhar Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) base on 9 July, for example, was followed two days later by a succinct incident report giving the date and location, and a photo report of armaments seized. For the Catupa operations, government has relied on reporting of statements given by President Nyusi over two days in Pemba and Mueda, and the leaking of photographs and details to selected news outlets. The reports speak variously of the capture of a camp, or camps, in Catupa forest, the killing of one leader, named as ‘Assane,’ and the capture of six others.
Of reported details, possibly the most revealing is footage of materials seized in the Catupa operation, and unconfirmed biographical details of six prisoners. A short video and still photos released to Pinnacle News show just two laptops, a plastic folder, a hard drive, four radio handsets, a battered mobile phone, a plug adapter, and a counter book. If these were the materials seized, it suggests that the camp was cleared well before FDS marched in; if not, the messaging is weak compared to that of IS. The counter book indicates that they probably had the management systems to allow for an orderly escape. The document, headed Daftari la Maudhurio ya Kazini ya Idara ya Afya, is mundane: a work attendance register for the health department from early February 2022, dated with the Islamic calendar. The document is evidence that the bureaucracy and management structures that are a requirement of IS from its provinces are functional, and not just aspirational.
President Nyusi’s own account also suggests there was a controlled withdrawal. The Catupa operations began on 25 June, according to President Nyusi as reported in Publico newspaper, and continued for an unspecified time before culminating in seizing one base. With no reported casualties and almost no evidence of seized materials, it is likely that the insurgents made a relatively orderly move from the camp.
The absence of significant captives too contributes to this perspective. Pinnacle News gave biographical details of two of the six men captured in the operation. Both are Mozambican, and neither of them seem to be in positions of command. One, a fisherman with navigational skills, is from Mecufi district south of Pemba. He reportedly remained in touch with his wife while with the insurgents, regularly sending her money. The other was involved in the assault on Palma, for which it was reported he was paid over 160,000 meticais.
Operations in the area began of course much earlier in March, with the deployment of Rwandan troops to the area, operating alongside FDS and SAMIM troops. As President Nyusi pointed out last week, these operations have successfully dispersed the fighters encamped in Catupa, but no evidence has been presented that they have been defeated, rather than disrupted. Indeed, sources in Macomia claim that the attack last week on Iba in Meluco district was carried out by a group that has also been involved in attacks in Nkoe and Nova Zambezia in Macomia district. The group is thought to be based in nearby Muidumbe district, in forested lands along the Messalo river.
According to President Nyusi, the Catupa operation was led by FDS, with Rwandan troops in support, and SAMIM forces ready to help if needed. Given that Macomia is a SAMIM Area of Responsibility and allocated to South African National Defence Force (SANDF), their backstopping role in a high profile operation is surprising. A new base being established by SANDF in Macomia is likely to be in place for some time, given that it will be home to up to 80 armored personnel carriers and 900 personnel. Disabling, rather than disrupting, mobile and deadly armed groups across the forested terrain of Macomia district will require a joined up counterinsurgency approach from the three forces.
Government Response
President Filipe Nyusi traveled last week to Cabo Delgado, passing through Pemba, Mueda, Mocímboa da Praia, and Palma districts. Nyusi’s entourage included the Association of Combatants of the National Liberation Struggle (ACLIN), officials from the Ministry of Combatants, and the General Commander of the Mozambican Police, Bernardino Rafael. His visit was a chance to address counterinsurgency efforts, galvanize Local Forces in their fight against the insurgency, and convey the narrative of a government that is in control of the situation and re-establishing normalcy in the violence-torn province.
On his arrival in Pemba on 14 July, Nyusi announced the recapture of the insurgents’ base in Catupa. However, he also warned that the weakness of the insurgents should not be understood as the end of the operations. He spoke of splits within the insurgency that are reportedly leading to splits in the leadership, and that the main figures leading the group are foreigners, mostly Tanzanians. He also reaffirmed that the expansion of insurgent attacks in southern Cabo Delgado is the result of intensified fighting carried out by the FDS.
Nyusi once again raised the issue of amnesty for insurgents who return to their communities, but offered no detail on how this might work. The president’s call is being echoed in Macomia town, where posters have appeared urging return. In Arabic, Portuguese, Swahili, and Makonde and Macua languages, the black and white A4 posters state: “Dear compatriots, return home. You will be received, your people are waiting for you.” The placement of the posters in Macomia town, where insurgents are unlikely to see them suggests that the authorities presume there is ongoing communication between the insurgents and their families and communities of origin. The posters are also notable for the lack of details, giving no advice on whom to approach if considering return.
Nyusi then went to Mueda, where alongside ACLIN members he met with Local Forces – pro-government armed militias composed mostly of veterans of the liberation struggle of Mozambique. ACLIN itself is an organization of Frelimo veterans with considerable influence over the Local Forces, particularly in Mueda. The Local Forces receive logistical support from the state and have been fundamental in the defense and protection of communities in parts of Cabo Delgado, operating in coordination with FDS and foreign forces. ACLIN’s accompaniment of Nyusi to Mudea is a morale boost to the Local Forces on the ground, who reaffirmed their commitment to the fight against the insurgency. At the same time, they highlighted the challenges they are facing in carrying out their tasks. Apart from expressing their concern with the lack of weapons and authorization to pursue "the bandits," they also said that they lack food supplies, arguing that due to violence they were forced to exchange hoes for guns. Nyusi responded by promising more support. Later, he walked through the streets of Mueda under heavy guard, appealing to the young people not to join the insurgency.
During his trip to Cabo Delgado, Nyusi said that his government has not yet officially authorized the return of displaced populations to their areas of origin, saying that basic conditions of security and basic services are still to be guaranteed. Meanwhile, the process of transferring displaced people from Mocímboa da Praia who are now in Quitunda in Palma district to the main town of Mocímboa da Praia resumed last week. It was carried out by both the Mozambican authorities and Rwandan forces. Around 600 families have been resettled in the Nanduadua neighborhood, one of the largest neighborhoods of the main town of Mocímboa da Praia. In Nanduadua, local residents complained about the limitations imposed on the practice of fishing and agriculture due to security reasons.
Life is returning to normality in the villages of Macomia and Quissanga, according to Armindo Ngunga, the head of the Northern Integrated Development Agency (ADIN). Ngunga, during his visit to the two districts, aimed at monitoring the rehabilitation of public infrastructure, said that rehabilitation works are encouraging the gradual return of the displaced population. The rehabilitation of public infrastructure is supported by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), which is also carrying out a cash for work initiative involving local youths. In Palma, more than 80% of public institutions are back in operation, according to the district government.
Ngunga’s views contrast with those of humanitarian organization Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) which last week reported that a growing tendency for civilians to seek refuge from insurgents in the bush may be increasing the population’s exposure to malaria. Four in 10 adults and eight in 10 children receiving treatment at MSF clinics in Macomia district in May tested positive for the disease. MSF’s statement also spoke of people in Cabo Delgado who “have had their lives overturned by fear of attacks, counter-attacks, and unpredictable eruptions of violence.” This presumably includes Macomia district, the scene of so many recent attacks.
The expansion of insurgent attacks in southern Cabo Delgado are likely to impact state revenues from the extractive sector, according to the Mozambican anti-corruption NGO the Center for Public Integrity (CIP). Insecurity in the south of Cabo Delgado has led to the suspension of operations of the AMG Graphit Kropfmuhl (GK) and transport to and from the operations of Twigg Exploration & Mining. These developments, according to CIP, suggest that the government's projections for growth in the extractive sector's contribution to 2022 revenues may not materialize, most notably due to the spread of violence. The insecurity may directly or indirectly affect 61 other companies operating in southern Cabo Delgado, including Montepuez Ruby Mining, one of the largest revenue contributors to the Mozambican state.
Last week, SADC decided to provisionally extend SAMIM’s mandate. In a virtual summit held on 14 July, the attending heads of state extended SAMIM's mandate beyond 15 July to "enable the continuation of operations," and a new decision will emerge from the ordinary summit of the same body scheduled for 17 and 18 July in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Heads of state from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, and South Africa attended this “Extra-Ordinary SADC Troika Summit Plus the Chairperson of the Organ.”
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