Cabo Ligado Weekly: 12-18 July

July 20, 2021 Cabo Ligado

Total number of organized political violence events: 923
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 3,104
Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 1,461

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

There was increased violence and confusion last week in Cabo Delgado, especially in the area around Palma town where some of the Rwandan intervention forces have deployed. On 12 July, insurgents attacked Ncumbi, a village that sits 13 kilometers southwest of Palma town on the road toward Mocimboa da Praia. No casualty estimates from the attack are available, in part due to the fact that cellular phone coverage was down in the area on that day.

The next day, government troops began informing civilians living in villages on the outskirts of Palma town — namely, Ncumbi, Makongo, Olumbe, and Monjane — that they are barred from traveling by boat. Sea travel south toward Pemba had been one of the most popular paths of escape from the area, alongside overland treks west to Nangade. Instead, government forces told residents of those communities they had until 19 July to relocate to Quitunda, the main camp for displaced civilians near Palma. There, government forces told civilians, they could safely await the results of a planned government offensive in the area.

Cabo Delgado governor Valige Tauabo visited the next day — 14 July — to underline the message and introduce a new district administrator for Palma district. Tauabo urged civilians to follow instructions from security forces, even as he heard many complaints of security forces mistreating civilians. Though many civilians seem to have taken the threat of an impending clash between government and insurgent forces in Palma as a cue to flee the district in whatever way possible (more on this in the Government Response section), Tauabo did manage to get at least two people to remain in Quitunda for the duration. The new district administrator and the local police commissioner told locals at a meeting in Quitunda on 14 July that, while their offices are in Palma town, they will be staying in Quitunda until the planned offensive is over due to security concerns in Palma.

As Mozambican military and civilian leaders tried to prepare Palma district civilians for an impending offensive, Rwandan troops continued to arrive in the district. It is unclear what role they will play in the coming fighting. Multiple reports indicated tension between Rwandan troops and Mozambican troops on the ground, with some reports suggesting that Mozambican forces are refusing to cede their positions to their putative allies from Rwanda. Neither the source nor the extent of the tension is clear, but it bears attention as an early indicator of how difficult it will be to coordinate between two sets of security forces that have not worked together much in the past.

Elsewhere in Cabo Delgado, attacks from both sides continued. In Nangade district, displaced people arriving after walking west from Palma reported that a Mozambican military unit executed 15 suspected insurgents that had been captured attempting to cross the Rovuma River into Tanzania on 13 July. At least one of the suspected insurgents was Tanzanian. The displaced civilians personally witnessed Mozambican troops execute two of the prisoners before fleeing, but later saw that none of the 15 had been transported with the unit that did the killing, leading them to believe that all 15 had been executed.

On 15 July, a group of insurgents attacked the village 5º Congresso, roughly 20 kilometers north of Macomia town. Six civilians were killed in the attack.

On 17 July, insurgents attacked Mitope, a village in northwest Mocimboa da Praia district along the border with Nangade. They captured and beheaded one civilian during the attack. Government forces responded from the air, with a Mi-24 helicopter firing rockets at the insurgent attackers. It is unclear if the rocket strike resulted in any casualties.

Questions are being raised about whether an incident in Nacololo, Montepuez district on 18 July is related to the conflict. In the village, which is in northeastern Montepuez and sits on the road connecting Montepuez town and Mueda town, a group of young people burned down at least 10 homes and stole food from local stores. Police arrested seven, including the son of a district secretary. Nacololo is well outside the conflict zone and there is no indication that the perpetrators are connected to the insurgency. Their modus operandi, however, closely resembles that of an insurgent attack, which has unsettled many in the area.

A report of an earlier incident also came in last week concerning a boat carrying IDPs that sank off the coast of Ilha Vamize, Palma district on 10 July. Four sailboats left Maganja that day, with families fleeing Palma district for the safety of Pemba. The boats were forced to turn back due to foul weather, but one of the boats capsized while turning about and sank. Nine women drowned. Their bodies were later found on Ilha Vamize, where they were buried.

Incident Focus: Islamic State Claims

Last week’s Cabo Ligado weekly report briefly mentioned that the Islamic State (IS) has begun claiming attacks in Cabo Delgado again, nearly three months after they last claimed any action in Mozambique. In the last week, the pace of claims has picked up considerably.

On 13 July, as noted in last week’s edition, IS claimed an attack on the “road linking the cities of Mocimboa da Praia and Mueda” the previous day that resulted in the capture of two armored vehicles and four firearms. Cabo Ligado linked that claim to the 2 July insurgent assault on Diaca, Mocimboa da Praia district, during which insurgents captured two police armored personnel carriers and killed at least one member of the police before being driven back.

Also on 13 July, IS issued another claim, saying that their fighters had clashed with the Mozambican army the previous day in Muidumbe (presumably Namacande, the district capital), killing one soldier and seizing three motorcycles and a firearm. No reported incident matches this description, but given that civilians have largely deserted Namacande, this incident could fall into the substantial category of unreported clashes.

On 14 July, an Amaq Agency article claimed that on 23 June, IS fighters attacked a Mozambican army position at Patacua, just south of Quitunda in Palma district, and fought a number of other skirmishes around the Palma area. In all, the article asserted IS fighters killed 15 soldiers, destroyed a military vehicle, captured two other military vehicles, and captured six firearms; they also set homes on fire in three unnamed villages around Palma. The claim, which is accompanied by a photo of at least one dead Mozambican soldier, lines up with both a known attack at Patacua on 23 June and accounts of widespread fighting around Palma that day.

On 15 July, IS released a double claim. The first part of the claim described an attack on “Micombi” — probably Ncumbi — on 14 July in which fighters killed four civilians. Then, the claim continued, insurgents engaged in a firefight with the Mozambican military on the same day along the road between Palma and Mocimboa da Praia, destroying one motorbike and capturing another. The first part of the claim may refer to the 12 July attack on Ncumbi mentioned earlier, while the second lends credence to an unconfirmed report that there were skirmishes between insurgents and government forces in Ncumbi and Monjane villages on 13 July. According to that report, government forces killed four insurgents in the skirmishes.

These claims are a far cry, in both frequency and content, from the group’s last claims surrounding the 24 March assault on Palma town. Those, which included a photo set of preparations for the attack, were clearly meant as a pre-planned announcement of a major success in the conflict. These claims, by contrast, describe much smaller attacks and appear simply to indicate that close communication between insurgents and IS is still ongoing. Given that IS has previously warned against international intervention on behalf of the Mozambican government, it is likely that the return to claims is related to the arrival of Rwandan troops in the country. As yet, however, there are no IS claims against Rwandan troops in Mozambique, nor any mention of the intervention whatsoever. If Rwandan troops are on the front line during the mooted government offensive in Palma, however, that may soon change.

Government Response

Months after the initial insurgent attack on Palma, another large contingent of civilians displaced from the district arrived last week in areas along the edge of the conflict zone. In Ntamba, Nangade district, some 1,150 people arrived on 12 July, while another 78 made it to Nangade town the same day. As many as 200 families who make it to Nangade are continuing south to Mueda each day. A source who spoke to displaced people as they arrived in Mueda reported that many left the areas around Palma as a result of direct threats from insurgents, who told them to leave or be killed.

Those fears are not confined to Palma district. Teachers assigned to teach in Macomia district are fighting an order to return to work in the district, claiming that it is not yet safe from insurgent attacks. Their case is bolstered both by recent documented attacks in the district — including the 15 July attack on 5º Congresso mentioned above — and by the fact that teachers, as employees of the state, are likely to be special targets for insurgent violence. Indeed, the teachers assert, they are the only civil servants being ordered back to Macomia, leaving them especially vulnerable.

On the international front, the African Commission on Human and People’s Rights and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) released a joint statement expressing their “deep concern” about the situation of Mozambican refugees attempting to enter Tanzania. The release puts the number of Mozambicans deported from Tanzania between January and June 2021 at over 9,700 and says that the Tanzanian government did not conduct any assessment of their international protection needs. Tanzanian officials have consistently denied UNHCR personnel access to the border area on the Tanzanian side, making it difficult to deliver aid to refugees before they are deported. The statement ends with a call from both organizations to the Tanzanian government to adhere to the principle of non-refoulement and open the border area to humanitarian organizations. UNHCR has spoken out about the plight of Mozambican refugees for some time now, but the addition of the African Commission’s voice makes this rebuke a particularly sharp one.

No new public progress was made last week toward an actual deployment of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Standby Force mission. Mozambican prime minister Carlos Agostinho do Rosário seemed to rebuke SADC members who had expressed annoyance at the deployment of Rwandan troops to Cabo Delgado preceding the SADC deployment, saying at a speech in Luanda, Angola that SADC “formally accepted” the prospect of a bilateral security partner for Mozambique.

Despite a statement from SADC executive secretary Stergomena Tax that she had “high confidence” in the eventual mission’s success, there are no indications of what the mission will actually begin. Tax’s comment came as she presented instruments of authority to the Standby Force mission commander, but her statement did not name the commander. Events last week make the prospect of a deployment seem more distant than it was a week ago, with South Africa's decision to deploy 25,000 troops to suppress disorder at home leaving few troops available to be sent to Cabo Delgado. According to Democratic Alliance shadow defense minister Kobus Marais, the domestic deployment makes South African participation in a mission to Mozambique “no longer tenable.”

Yet other SADC countries do seem to be preparing to deploy. Advance teams from the Botswanan and Zimbabwean militaries were reported in Mueda last week.