• Total number of organized political violence events: 1,440

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,258

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,879

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Situation Summary

Last week was marked by attacks by insurgents on the Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Macomia, Muidumbe, and Nangade districts. In Macomia, up to 16 FDS members were killed in an attack in Nkoe village, while FDS and SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) troops came under heavy attacks in Quinto Congresso in the following days according to an Islamic State (IS) claim. In Nangade district, FDS and SAMIM troops were allegedly killed in an assault on a joint outpost, while more casualties were incurred in a separate operation against insurgent camps in the district. In Muidumbe district, an IED attack was undertaken against FDS, all suggesting confidence amongst insurgents. 

Multiple sources confirm the 15 September attack on a FDS outpost in Nkoe, which lies 23 km northwest of Macomia town and was, even prior to the attack, largely empty of villagers. The attack was launched between 8 pm and 11 pm. In response, reinforcements were sent from Macomia town. Up to 16 FDS members were killed in the fighting, according to one local source, though others said that just five may have been killed. IS, through Telegram channels, issued a claim to the attack the following day, claiming 16 fatalities. Photographs issued by IS, claiming to be of the event, show at least 10 dead military personnel and a significant weapons and munitions haul. One security consultant reported a further attack on FDS in Nova Zambézia the following morning, though this could not be confirmed.

The Nkoe attack came within hours of Brigadier Omar Saranga, coordinator of the Northern Operational Theater, announcing that on 7 September FDS had managed to kill four insurgency commanders in Nkoe. He made the announcement to the press at the former insurgents’ base in Katupa forest. Brigadier Saranga reportedly said that those killed were on the run from the Katupa forest operations that had been underway between April and July.

In a statement issued on 19 September, IS claimed to have killed 19 members of SADC and FDS as they tried to take insurgent positions at Quinto Congresso in Macomia district, approximately 10 km northwest of Nkoe. This incident could not be corroborated. 

There is less clarity of events in Nangade district over the following days. One source has shared detailed reports of actions taken by FDS and SAMIM troops on 16 September in the Namiune area, roughly 20 km east of Nangade town. Early that morning, helicopters dropped bombs on suspected insurgent camps, precipitating follow up operations by ground forces from SAMIM and FDS, according to the source. Two vehicles – according to one source, recently donated as part of the EU’s military support – were ambushed at this point in an attack that left nine dead: three from SAMIM, and six from FDS. The ambush took place near Chitama, just south of Namiune.

Another source reports that on the same day, 16 September, insurgents attacked an FDS outpost that also housed SAMIM troops from the Lesotho Defense Force at Nkonga, approximately 15 km south of Namiune. Fighting continued into the morning of 17 September, according to the source, with casualties on both sides. The same source also reported an attack on 16 September on Pundanhar village in Palma district close to the Nangade border, though this too could not be confirmed. Pundanhar was abandoned by Mozambican forces in the face of an insurgent attack in early July; the military is expected to return this month. 

While the sources’ accounts could not be confirmed, there has long been concern about insurgents’ camps in Nangade, particularly since the dispersal of insurgents from the Katupa forest. Insurgent camps in the area make attacks more likely from both insurgents on the one hand, and FDS and intervention forces on the other. For the insurgents, they also present a rearbase for actions in both Palma and Mocímboa da Praia districts.

Muidumbe district also saw an attack on security forces, this time involving an improvised explosive device (IED). According to a local source, the IED exploded on 15 September at Xitaxi, approximately five km east of Muidumbe town. Two sources reported that this led to an intense exchange of fire, with one source saying that some FDS troops were wounded, and evacuated to Pemba by helicopter.

Also in Muidumbe district, a local source said that insurgents attacked Mapate village in Muambula, killing three people on 12 September. This would be the latest in a series of attacks on civilians in this part of Muidumbe district in recent weeks, notably around Mandela village. The previous day, five corpses were found in the same part of the district.

Tension remains in the Chiure and Ancuabe districts of southern Cabo Delgado, and Eráti and Memba districts of northern Nampula. IS claimed a 13 September attack on the village of Ichibua in Chiure district, claiming to have beheaded five, including the village leader. The attack was likely undertaken by fighters returning from Nampula province. Criminal acts mimicking insurgent attacks add to the tension and confusion. In Metoro in Ancuabe district, youths set a primary school on fire, reportedly chanting ‘Allahu Akbar’ in the process. This was similar to an incident in Ngewe, also in Ancuabe district, where homes were burned earlier in the month.

More alarming are three sightings of suspected insurgents on the move in Ancuabe district, as well as a report of a small group entering Nampula between Memba and Namapa districts. Two sources, in Quissanga and Ancuabe, independently suggest that the main axis of movement is between Quissanga and Nampula, via Ancuabe, and that this is expected to facilitate an expansion into Nampula. Another view in the security community is that the southern offensive was to create space for the types of attack we saw last week by stretching FDS and intervention forces. 

Weekly Focus: Cabo Delgado Takes Center Stage at Energy Summit

This week, senior representatives of the energy industry gathered in Maputo for the first Mozambique Energy and Gas Summit in three years, where the security situation in Cabo Delgado inevitably loomed over the agenda. 

Speaking at the summit, President Filipe Nyusi continued to push gas companies to return to Cabo Delgado, saying that “the success in the fight against terrorists, on the Mocímboa da Praia-Palma axis, which includes the roadways and access to the port, gives a situation of greater stability [than existed before] the previous attacks on the town of Palma." 
In response, companies tried to strike a tone that balanced optimism about the humanitarian situation in the north with caution that much progress still has to be made before business can return to normal.

Simone Santi, President of Oil & Gas, Energy & Mineral Resources at the Confederation of Economic Associations of Mozambique (CTA), painted an upbeat picture of Cabo Delgado. On a visit to Palma and Afungi in recent weeks, he told the summit, he found that “the reality is very different to the perception. Palma is full of economic activity, with Mozambican people selling to other Mozambican people.” He claimed to have met farmers growing hectares of tomatoes and fishermen going out on the water with brand new boats. “Now is the time to do business again,” he declared. 

TotalEnergies was keen to extol the successes of its development initiatives in the area. Laila Chilemba, the company’s Vice President for Socioeconomic Development, claimed: “Things are going back. There is a massive investment that TotalEnergies is doing on the ground and that is changing lives… I remember when I went there at the end of January and I saw Palma. What I see today is a completely different scenario.” She went on to describe how TotalEnergies, with the help of various partners, is investing in agriculture and fisheries to revive the economy and that since January, these investments have helped create 2,500 jobs, albeit temporary. 

However, Chilema acknowledged: “We need people to go back there. We need businesses to go back there… We need those long term investments to materialize and create the sustainability that we need for those communities in those districts.” This recognition that there is still much work to be done was echoed by her colleague Stéphane Le Galles, Director of TotalEnergies’ Mozambique  liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, who said there are "visible signs of people coming back to the region but we are not there yet.” “The journey is long but the direction is very good," he concluded. 

John-Henry Farrell, Chairman of the Palma Development Foundation, provided some dissent from the notion that major progress is already being made in Cabo Delgado. While describing his organization's work helping the returned population in Palma set up bamboo farms, he observed: "Warfare has devastated the whole place, and over the last two years I haven’t seen anyone do an incredible amount to reverse the effects of the war."

Paola Horyaans Vazquez, head of cooperation at the EU delegation in Mozambique, warned against top-down reconstruction efforts, calling on LNG companies to help “address the root causes of the conflict” by involving the local community. This includes consulting local people on how they want their community to be reconstructed and sharing the investments in the region’s resources. “In terms of reconstruction, it is important that we not only think of security and investment opportunities but also providing services,” Vazquez told the summit. These services include water and health as well as stable employment. Much of this is yet to be seen. 

But Armindo Ngunga, President of the Northern Integrated Development Agency (ADIN), urged LNG companies not to embark on expensive development projects without first consulting ADIN. Ngunga told the summit a story about “someone very important” who came to his office offering to provide food aid to Cabo Delgado and he had to explain that the people there already have the ability to grow their own food and it is shelters that they want. “Talk to us because we are there every day, we know the people’s needs,” he said. 

Most of those at the summit presented a united front, emphasizing improvements in the security situation since March 2021 and the success of development initiatives in restoring life to stricken areas of Cabo Delgado. At the same time, there is a consensus that a sustainable security solution still eludes the region and no one is willing to offer even a vague estimate of when the province will be safe enough for the LNG companies to return. 

Government Response

Twenty-three Islamic organizations in Mozambique issued a statement on Thursday, 15 September, saying "they strongly repudiate” violent acts, in particular the attack in Nampula against a Christian mission, describing them as "incompatible with the principles of human coexistence." The signatories urged the government to take additional and urgent measures. The organizations represent a significant cross-section of Mozambique’s Islamic institutions. One well-informed observer told Cabo Ligado that it is noteworthy that it took the killing of a Catholic nun to elicit the statement, given the numbers killed so far, including local Muslim community leaders. 

On Tuesday 13 September, police announced in Nampula that they had arrested 27 men and two women in Cabo Delgado province, who were allegedly there to take part in the insurgency and who had been recruited in the districts of Memba and Nacala, in Nampula province. The group was arrested in the Cabo Delgado districts of Macomia, Palma, and Quissanga, the police said. Nampula Police Spokesperson Zacarias Nacute said they had been arrested for fear they would be recruited into the insurgency and on suspicion that they had been lured to Cabo Delgado with false promises of employment. The woman who recruited them, ostensibly for fishing, denied any such intention, reported Nampula’s Ikweli newspaper. According to a Cabo Ligado source, there is not clear evidence that those detained are involved in the insurgency, and there is the impression that the police are under heavy pressure from their superiors to present results. State-linked newspaper Notícias later reported that the arrestees will not be charged, but will be returned to their communities and monitored. There is as yet no formal diversion or reintegration program in place for those at risk of recruitment, or who have been involved in the insurgency. Such ad hoc measures are similar to what is happening in border areas in southern Tanzania, where some returnees from Mozambique are allowed to reintegrate, while others are detained. 

In a move tailored to facilitate return, Mozambique's National Institute of Social Action (INAS) has resumed the payment of basic social allowance to residents in the district of Mocímboa da Praia, after interruption caused by insurgent attacks, according to Florêncio Jaquicene, the district's INAS delegate. Jaquicene added he was working with partners to resume the basic social subsidy program to communities in the district of Palma, which are considered difficult to access. This is a significant move by the authorities to encourage people to return to these two towns, as they will be able to receive eligible state payments at their place of origin. The government recently claimed 9,000 residents had returned to Mocímboa da Praia. 

The increasing number of displaced people following attacks in Memba continues to worry authorities. The government is still assessing the number of displaced households, and say they are mainly heading towards Nacala, Nacala-a-Velha, Mozambique Island, and Nampula city. Nampula’s Secretary of State, Mety Gondola, said on Tuesday that the situation was “relatively stable” but that there were still “moments of worry.” According to Gondola, in the district of Eráti alone, 10,000 people have been displaced due to the attacks. 

In neighboring Eráti district, Permanent Secretary Ali Adinane told the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction on 16 September that his region has a burden of over 47,000 people, of whom 64% are children, as reported by ActionAid Mozambique. At the meeting held in Alua, in Eráti district, he said that the authorities wanted to support them with food, shelter, and dignity. Some displaced people told the meeting that they were forced to return to their areas of origin due to lack of food. 

These figures are not yet reflected in official displacement figures used by the humanitarian community, which are compiled by the International Organization for Migration. Their latest figures for those “internally displaced by conflict in northern Mozambique” and which refer to Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces, remain at 946,508 up to June 2022, and further 83,000 since identified by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Also on Friday 16 September, United Nations humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths announced a $5 million support to Mozambique from the Central Emergency Response Fund, in a boost to underfunded humanitarian operations. 

At the end of his visit to Mozambique, Josep Borrell, the head of the EU's foreign affairs, said that the EU's €20 million support to Rwanda's mission in Mozambique is not "a blank cheque for the government of Rwanda," answering questions on whether the support contradicts the EU's criticism towards the Kagame regime in the country. Borrell also said that the support to security efforts in Mozambique is "independent" of the development of gas projects in Cabo Delgado, adding that the EU "fights against terrorism in many countries." 

Borrell also confirmed that 600 Mozambican troops had now completed their training, although it is not clear if and how they are currently deployed in the conflict zone. Mozambique is also set to receive another batch of non-lethal military equipment from the EU by the end of October, said the new commander of the EU military training mission in Mozambique, Rogério Martins de Brito. The delivery would be the last this year under the program, Brito said, adding that more material would be given to Mozambique over the next two years. This will include a fully equipped field hospital.

Mozambique is also undertaking its own training to supplement the security response to the conflict. On Monday, 19 September, 11,336 new officers completed the 42nd police course, the highest ever number of graduates. Among those, were an unspecified number of young people whom President Nyusi praised for having previously fought “side by side” with Local Forces. They are to be returned to Cabo Delgado where as police they will work alongside Local Forces. 

In a meeting with US President Joe Biden on Friday 16 September, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the two heads of state should talk about the security and stability situation in Southern Africa, given that there is "an insurgency that is targeting one of our neighboring countries, Mozambique." “Yes”, was President Biden’s one word acknowledgement. It is not known how President Nyusi reacted to Ramaphosa raising Mozambique in the meeting. 

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