Cabo Ligado Weekly: 13-19 February 2023

Feb 21

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-February 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 17 February 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.

Total number of political violence events: 1,616
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,668
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,018

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Last week saw relatively little activity in Cabo Delgado, likely due in part to heavy rainfall which has affected the mobility of both insurgents and security forces. Nonetheless, two insurgent attacks were confirmed. The first took place in Miangalewa in Muidumbe district on 14 February, though the details are unclear. One source reported that a government security forces position was attacked, but with no mention of casualties, while another source claimed shots were heard in the area, prompting civilians to flee into the bush.

The second incident was reported on 17 February in the village of Maputo between Mocímboa da Praia and Palma, where insurgents clashed with Local Forces, causing the road to be closed. One source claimed that four women were kidnapped during the attack, but two managed to escape or were released.

Two days earlier, two taxi drivers had spotted five insurgents near the village of Nabaje in Mocímboa da Praia, crossing from the lowland area near the beach to the woods. Four suspected insurgents were also arrested in the Nabubusi neighborhood of Mocímboa da Praia town after they returned home for food and were reported to the authorities by their mothers. Evidently, a sizable insurgent force is still operating around Mocímboa da Praia, threatening the security of the district headquarters.

Reports from Nangade suggest the situation is calm, but the threat of surprise attacks still persists. Displaced civilians have returned home to the villages of Mandimba, Chacamba Boda, Rovuma, and others. District Administrator Matias Constantino visited Tanzanian ‘bilateral’ forces in Mandimba village, where he was told that “the security situation is still not satisfactory” but “conditions in the villages to which people have returned are good” and that recent operations have “led the enemy to abandon the area,” according to a local source (see below).

Storms have left much of Cabo Delgado deluged, including several major roads. Last week, traffic was interrupted along the N380 between Macomia and Awasse when the Messalo river broke its banks and flooded the road. One bus was submerged near Miangalewa, blocking cars from passing in either direction. The districts of Palma, Mocímboa da Praia, Nangade, Mueda, and Muidumbe have effectively been cut off from each other by road.

The repercussions of two attacks in Montepuez district over two weeks ago are still being felt in the district. Between 8 and 14 February, the International Organization of Migration registered the arrival of 5,000 displaced people in Montepuez town, joining the 3,337 whose arrival was recorded the previous week. This influx of displaced people follows the attacks on Namoro and Nairoto villages in the north of the district on 4 and 12 February.

Weekly Focus: Tanzania Deploys Bilateral Force to Cabo Delgado

Information emerged last week indicating that Tanzania has deployed a force to Nangade district under a bilateral agreement between the governments of Tanzania and Mozambique. The information came from a public presentation made by a Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) officer to the Nangade District Administrator, Matias Constantino, on 10 February. The presence of a bilateral force, alongside a deployment under the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), may be a complicating factor in the international response to the conflict.

The officer told Constantino that “our two governments entered joint agreements to protect our borders against the terrorist group Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa.” He went on to say that the TPDF was “authorized to carry out its responsibilities in Cabo Delgado province, Nangade district,” and had been based at Mandimba in the northeast of Nangade district since 16 October.

This TPDF deployment was known locally at the time. Cabo Ligado reported in October the arrival of up to 300 troops in Mandimba. However, it is surprising that the deployment has been made outside the SAMIM framework under which a TPDF deployment is based in Nangade district headquarters and a deployment of police has just been announced. How ‘URT Bilateral,’ as the officer referred to this new force, will relate to SAMIM is not known. ‘URT’ refers to the United Republic of Tanzania.

Of all the intervention force countries, Tanzania has the most at stake. The involvement of Tanzanians in the insurgency has strained its historically important relationship with Mozambique. They are also the only troop-contributing country to have been hit directly by the insurgents, most notably when the border village of Kitaya was attacked in October 2020.

The deployment of Rwandan forces in Palma district along Tanzania’s southern border presents a new challenge, both to relations with Mozambique, and in security terms. President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s visit to Mozambique in September 2022 sought to address the first issue. The deployment of troops in Mandimba highlights the second issue. Mandimba is just 25 km west of a Rwandan outpost at Pundanhar, in Palma district. Presumably, if Tanzania was happy with existing security arrangements in northern Mozambique, such a move would not be necessary.

Tanzania is perhaps mindful of allegations that Rwanda supports the M23 armed group in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the European Union (EU) last week called for it to cease its support for the M23, the non-state armed group challenging the DRC government in the northeast. There is much at stake in southern Tanzania. If Tanzania’s liquefied natural gas project goes ahead in Lindi region, as is still expected, its southern regions will be transformed, as will the country’s strategic importance in the region. Rwanda’s strategic presence across the border – which President Paul Kagame confirmed last week is not going away – may be seen as presenting a risk to this.

Weekly Round-Up

New challenges emerge in Mocímboa da Praia in light of growing insecurity

The recent visits to Mocímboa da Praia by TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné, the EU Director of Military Planning and Concept Capability, Vice Admiral Hervé Bléjean, along with the EU Training Mission in Mozambique Force Commander, Commodore Rogério Martins de Brito, suggest a return to normality. While statements on their respective visits recognized how improved security has contributed to the significant return of displaced people, the sustained presence of insurgents in the district undermines the security and stability of the district.

To the north of the district headquarters, there have been sightings and attacks at Maputo and Maculo villages in the past two weeks. To the south, there have been sightings, and clashes with Rwandan forces, around Calugo and Luxete. In Mocímboa da Praia town itself, four insurgents were arrested last week. Attacks and ambushes have also been reported on the main roads leading into the district, mainly on the Meluco-Macomia and Montepuez-Mueda sections. These developments have heightened concern among the population and civil servants who are considering returning to the district, and will likely result in a further delay in the restoration of essential services in the district.

Among the most affected by the current insecurity situation in and around Mocímboa da Praia are education and health services. The district saw some of the conflict’s fiercest fighting in the second half of 2021 as Rwandan forces fought for its control. Many schools in the district were badly damaged, and most of these have not yet been rehabilitated, according to a local source. The situation in the health sector is no better. According to a report by ACAPS, about 88% of the health units in Mocímboa da Praia are not operational, and half of those have been completely destroyed, illustrating that insurgent attacks have been directed at infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.

To address these challenges, the provincial government has established mobile health units in cooperation with Doctors Without Borders. But these are insufficient to meet the rising demand for such services. The circulation of insurgents in the forests of Mocímboa da Praia is worrying the nurses, who increasingly fear working far from the district headquarters. The insecurity of the roads also affects health services, as it hinders the logistics and distribution of medicines and hospital supplies. But the challenges do not stop there. Outside the district headquarters, the locals complain about the lack of electricity, drinking water, and basic sanitation, amongst other services. Last but not least, the insecurity of the access roads is leading to shortages and speculation on the prices of basic necessities, which will lead to an increase in the cost of living in the town.

UN report paints insurgency as much smaller but more effective

The United Nations (UN) Security Council last week published the latest report of its Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team on the activities of Islamic State and al-Qaeda, covering the six months up to 19 December 2022. It said the insurgency was now estimated to have 280 adult male fighters, down from “an initial 2,500 fighters.”

Nevertheless, it said, the remaining insurgents have shown “enhanced strategic and tactical coordination, forcing the overextension of regional forces” with attacks in northern, central, and southern Cabo Delgado. “While local fatalities are generally decreasing,” the report says, a new tendency to attack economic infrastructure and projects is causing “serious economic consequences” as well as increasing displacement of vulnerable populations.

Rwandan president promises to remain firm in Cabo Delgado

President Filipe Nyusi met with his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame for a bilateral conversation on the sidelines of an African Union meeting in Addis Ababa last weekend. On his return to Maputo, Nyusi told journalists that Kagame had assured him that Rwanda remains steadfast in its support for Mozambique in fighting the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, making it clear that Rwandan forces will remain while Mozambique’s Defense and Security Forces improve their own capacity to combat the insurgency.

Cabo Ligado