Cabo Ligado Weekly: 13-19 June 2022

June 22, 2022 Cabo Ligado

Total number of organized political violence events: 1,300
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,051
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,752

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Attacks on civilians and security forces intensified simultaneously across Ancuabe, Nangade, Chiure, and Mecufi districts last week. Insurgents even launched an incursion across the Lúrio river to strike into Nampula province for the first time, marking the first attack in that province and the insurgency’s first outside Cabo Delgado since its short-lived offensive into Niassa in December 2021.

Ancuabe was the scene of some of the most intense violence this week, suffering three confirmed attacks in just two days in which at least five people were killed and a large number of homes destroyed. On 18 June, at least two members of the security forces and possibly two civilians were killed in an attack in Nikuita village, approximately 8 km north of Ancuabe. A Mahindra jeep carrying forces said to be from the police force’s Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) was attacked on its way to the farm of influential Frelimo veteran and former Minister for National Defense, Alberto Chipande, killing two of the officers inside and wounding two others, according to local reports.

Islamic State (IS) claimed via social media channels on 19 June to have attacked Nikuita village and clashed with security forces who tried to intervene, killing two of them. The next day, IS published a photo report allegedly of the incident, showing the bodies of two men in military fatigues and a burning car.

According to a Lusa report, insurgents killed two more people in the village, including a child, before moving onto Nanoa village, less than 5 km from Ancuabe district headquarters. Local reports suggested that insurgents arrived in the village at night on 18 June and promptly began setting fire to people’s homes. NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), which monitors fires using satellite observations, detected fires in Nanoa village that night. IS published a statement on 19 June claiming responsibility for beheading a civilian and burning a church along with several homes in Nanoa. One source suggests that another civilian died in the fires.

The next day, insurgents attacked the village of Macaia, 6 km northeast of Ancuabe, burning houses and killing up to two civilians. NASA FIRMS detected a cluster of fires over populated areas of Macaia late on 19 June. IS claimed to have beheaded two civilians and burned down two churches in Macaia that night.

Killings also took place around Nangade district headquarters during a visit from President Filipe Nyusi. Carta reported that on 16 June, a group of 10 insurgents disturbed men in a cashew grove, killing four of them, before moving about 20 km south to Ngangolo village, where they kidnapped women working in the fields. A local source also reported that insurgents killed four people in the fields around the village of Lissulo before moving to Ngangolo and killing at least one more person and capturing another six. Mediafax reported that Local Forces based in Ntamba Administrative Post made their way to Ngangolo and engaged with the insurgents, killing seven. IS posted a statement three days later claiming to have beheaded “a number of Christians” and burned two churches in Ngangolo.

At the time of the attacks, Nyusi was visiting the district as part of a tour of Cabo Delgado on which he inspected troops of the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) and met with senior officers. Tanzanian and Lesotho troops, who represent SAMIM in Nangade, were reportedly very slow to respond to the attacks, frustrating the local population, according to a local source.

IS published a photo report on 20 June, claiming to depict its recent campaign in Nangade. The report features pictures of burning buildings, insurgents posing with IS flags and two beheaded bodies, but no specific location is provided.

Insurgent activity has continued in Chiure and appears to have spilled across the district border into Mecufi, which this week experienced its first attack. On 13 June, Micolene in Chiure was reported to be in flames and the next day IS claimed to have attacked the village, beheading two civilians and burning a church.

On 14 June, Mancuaia in Mecufi district, approximately 20 km west of Mecufi district headquarters and 35 km south of Pemba, was reported to be under attack. It is not yet known if there were any casualties, but many residents hid in the bush while others tried to find transport to escape. Bus fares from Mecufi to Pemba have apparently been hiked from 150-200 meticais to 500 meticais.

Nampula suffered its first attack since the start of the conflict three days later, when insurgents attacked the village of Lúrio in Memba district and beheaded a civilian, according to IS social media. A local source confirmed there was an attack while Pinnacle News, an online news service, reported that insurgents looted food and shot a local trader in the arm, who is recovering in hospital. The police spokesperson in Nampula, Zacarias Nacute, gave a wooly half-denial that the incident had taken place. Nampula-based Ikweli newspaper later reported residents of Lúrio saying that the incident was an operation to help recruiters for the insurgency who had moved to the town to get back across the Lúrio river and into Chiure district.

The near relentless frequency of attacks across several districts suggests a degree of strategic coordination between insurgent groups, forcing the security forces onto a reactive footing. It is not clear if the insurgency's supply lines are robust enough to sustain an extended offensive, if, as some believe, the insurgents have moved south in flight from combined Rwandan and Mozambican military operations in Macomia district. Nevertheless, security forces in the southern districts are stretched, rushing from one incident to the next. For the moment at least, the insurgents have some momentum.

Weekly Focus: Insurgents Inspire Fear, State Intelligence Fails

The rapid expansion of the insurgency in recent weeks into the province's southern districts, and beyond into Nampula, raises questions about insurgency tactics, and counterterrorism actions equally. The insurgents’ rapid and relatively comprehensive communication of their attacks in recent weeks, and their apparent freedom of movement in the relatively densely populated south in particular, suggest this development may have some resilience. The attacks have placed humanitarian operations too under strain.

IS has released six photo reports so far this month. They are notable for two reasons. Firstly, they come from across the province. Two are from Nangade and Macomia, while the remaining three feature incidents in Ancuabe and Meluco. The spread of locations indicates that cells across the province remain in touch with the coordinator of the IS communications channel, said by the US State Department to be Bonomade Machude Omar. Even as the insurgency has been severely disrupted by the arrival of intervention forces last year, communication and planning mechanisms have not been destroyed by the intervention.

Secondly, of the six photo reports, five highlight victims of beheading. The photographs, likely curated by the IS Central Media Bureau from a number of submissions, circulate widely in Mozambique. The stories of the victims will circulate through networks of family, friends, and colleagues. The result is a clear statement of power to already vulnerable populations. This communication of the insurgents’ mercilessness is repeated on the ground. Beheadings have characterized attacks in Ancuabe in particular. Mediafax, a Cabo Ligado partner, reported this week how one woman in Mecufi district was psychologically tortured by insurgents who presented to her in a bag the head of a man said to be her husband.

Despite this aggressive posture towards the population, the insurgents appear to have effective intelligence networks in areas in which they have not been active before. Security services are responding to attacks according to sources on the ground, but are not in a position to prevent them. Attacks on civilians and incursions at sites on main roads such as Ntutupue, Chai, and Massassi indicate that they have intelligence on sites of military and police bases, and their basic movements and, with the exception of the 18 June attack on the UIR jeep at Nikuita, are successfully avoiding direct engagement.

This should not be a surprise. The insurgency is understood to have developed significant networks of informers across Cabo Delgado and in Nampula. Just last week, Minister of the Interior Arsenia Massingue, speaking at provincial police headquarters, pointed the finger at members of the Defense and Security Forces (FDS), accusing them of passing on information to the insurgents. As informants in the past have been paid, we can assume that intelligence networks are still in place, and that financing networks must also remain.

The flipside of course is that the security forces have weak intelligence about the insurgents’ movements into these new districts, given the spread and frequency of recent attacks. This issue was also addressed by Minister Massingue, who said that failure to interact with communities allowed insurgents to settle within communities, and “plan their incursions while they are there.” In demonstrating that some in the FDS are “corrupt, undisciplined, lazy, and failing at work,” she highlighted the challenge of security sector reform that has been pointed out in recent weeks by Minister of National Defense Cristóvão Chume. The advances made in the southern districts further prove the urgency of that reform.

The deterioration in security has displaced over 20,000 since the first attack in Ancuabe over two weeks ago. As civilian life is disrupted, so are ongoing humanitarian operations. By attacking where they have, insurgents have made the primary routes out of Pemba, west to Montepuez and south to Nampula, extremely insecure. While military escorts are not required on those routes since last week, according to a source, United Nations road operations are still suspended, while non-governmental organizations have restricted movements. If this continues, humanitarian organizations may need to use their available air assets for movement of personnel and small air drops.

Government Response

President Filipe Nyusi landed in Pemba on Wednesday last week for a working visit to Cabo Delgado, which included the districts of Ancuabe, Macomia, Nangade, and Mueda. Nyusi started with a meeting on 16 June in Pemba with senior officials of the Mozambican army, SAMIM, and Rwanda to learn about the course of operations in the northern operational theater. He then headed to the neighboring district of Ancuabe.

Speaking publicly in Ancuabe town, Nyusi said that the insurgent incursions in the area were the result of "heavy fire" and intensified pursuits further north carried out by the joint forces of Mozambique, Rwanda, and SAMIM. He dismissed the insurgent threat in the south of Cabo Delgado, saying that the insurgents are weakened and bewildered, and that the attacks in Ancuabe are mainly aimed at searching for food. While also at Ancuabe, Nyusi assured the population that efforts by FDS are underway to re-establish security in the area. Privately, sources say, he was furious with the shift south, and the failure to prevent it.

On the same day, the Governor of Cabo Delgado, Valige Tauabo, was in Mecufi where he reiterated the Mozambican president's stance that insurgent incursions south of Cabo Delgado are a result of the progress of the FDS and their allies in counterinsurgency efforts. Valige urged the population not to hastily abandon their villages because of what he called "the stampede of terrorists in the province.”

The pressure of displaced people fleeing the attacks in Ancuabe is already being felt in Metuge district. According to the officials in charge of the accommodation centers in Ntokota and Tratara, they are increasingly receiving displaced people fleeing Ancuabe. These centers, they say, have neither adequate shelter nor enough food for these new arrivals. This was also highlighted by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA). On 16 June, they indicated that only 10% of the 17,000 people displaced by attacks in Ancuabe and Chiure districts by that day had received food support and shelter. The number has since exceeded 20,000.

Australian mining company, Syrah Resources, announced in a statement it had lifted precautionary measures to limit personnel and logistics to and from its sites in the mining area, which it had imposed following insurgent attacks in Ancuabe. The company further reported that operations were not affected by the suspension. Triton Minerals, whose early stage mine project was directly attacked, finally managed to retrieve the bodies of two staff members who were beheaded by insurgents. The retrieval was delayed by waiting for an escort from the FDS — who, after the deed was done, left frustrated at not having been paid by the company, a local source said.

IS noted the impact the insurgents are having on investment projects in the province in last week’s edition of its weekly publication, Al Naba. A report on incidents from “Mozambique Province” referred to the “crusader Australian company Triton” in its account of the killings. It also noted the large number of “crusader companies” in the province, and reported the evacuation of staff of the Portuguese electrical engineering contractor Efacec on 7 June from the site of a 41 megawatt solar power project at Metoro. The project is implemented by Neoen of France in collaboration with Electricidade de Moçambique, with partial funding from the government of France.

US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland stopped in Mozambique as part of an Africa tour last week. Her focus was on political engagements to roll out the Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability. The multi-country 10-year program, which includes Mozambique, was announced in April. During her visit, Nuland confirmed a $29.5 million donation to the World Food Program (WFP) to support around 950,000 people displaced by conflict in Cabo Delgado. The US support will serve as an oxygen balloon for the WFP, which was in risk of suspending humanitarian assistance in August due to lack of funding.