• Total number of organized political violence events: 1,166

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 3,764

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,645

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Situation Summary

Rwandan pro-government media houses began last week by releasing claims designed to push forward the narrative that the insurgency in northern Mozambique is nearly defeated. Pro-government Mozambican outlets ended the week by following suit. Reports in Rwandan media depicted the previous week’s cleaning operations in western Palma district by a joint force of Rwandan military, Rwandan police, and Mozambican military personnel as having been a massive success, in which“terror cells” were broken up and new insurgent hideouts were dismantled.

However, specifics emerged later in the week in reports broadcast on Mozambican state television, TVM, from correspondent Brito Simango who is embedded with the joint force. Footage shows him exploring one of 16 bunkers that supposedly served as the insurgents’ main communications base in Nhica do Rovuma, Palma district. The densely forested location was given as 18kms from the border with Tanzania, and the insurgent leaders who had occupied the area were said to be Tanzanians. Rwandan reports claimed two insurgents were killed, two were captured and 17 civilians were rescued, but on Sunday, Simango put the number of insurgents killed at seven. In a video interview, Rwandan Special Force Commander Major Steven Kuraba declared, “Palma is so far clean,” adding: “There was no resistance, no resistance. They had to run so they moved to another district: Nangade.” The pushing out of insurgents from western Palma, and their ensuing flight into neighboring Nangade district, where the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) forces are stationed, is discussed in this week’s Incident Focus below.

The discovery of a mutilated body of a motorcycle taxi, or boda boda, driver in a forest near Hiyari village in Tanzania’s Mtwara district was reported on 16 February. It is the third discovery of a dead boda boda driver in Mtwara district in recent days. Since the start of the year, eight boda boda drivers have gone missing in Mtwara district, and all after picking up passengers. Although no reports mention Mozambique, it is presumed locally that it is somehow connected to the insurgency. The maimed man’s remains were only found by a search party of more than 100 other boda boda drivers who went looking for their colleague after police failings frustrated them.

In Cabo Delgado’s southern Ancuabe district, a community leader from a camp for internally displaced people (IDPs) in Metoro was found dead on 17 February. He had been missing for 10 days. No one knows what happened or why, but his death is believed by a local source to be due to his refusal to sign up locals from the area to receive food aid and humanitarian support.

Friday 18 February saw the arrival in Nangade district of insurgents who had been pushed out of their bases in western Palma district. Sightings of columns of insurgents crossing Nangade district started in the afternoon. Before sunset, one northern village and one further south had already been attacked. Chacamba, 7km east of the district headquarters, was first. No casualty reports are available. Insurgents surrounded the settlement to prevent people escaping. Two boys on motorbikes were shot at; it is unclear if they were hit, and if they survived. Unaware of the attackers' arrival, they were riding out with dried cassava deliveries for Nangade town. The insurgents started firing at them thinking they were fleeing. 

The second attack by a different column of insurgents was on Litingina, at about 5.30pm, and where as many as 50 insurgents killed, looted and burned homes. One source said six people died.

As the weekend passed, the columns moved across the district. One through northeastern areas, from Namiune to Rovuma, avoiding the district headquarters, where SAMIM forces are stationed. The other column also avoided Nangade town, moving on the other side though, from Litingina, which is nearer to Mueda district in the south, and then up to Namatil, and then west towards Negomano. 

After leaving Litingina on Saturday, that group next attacked Mungano village, 20km from Namatil, beheading one man and abducting another. Later on Saturday afternoon, Ntamba Lagoa village, which is also called Armando Emilio Guebuza and is only 4km from SAMIM’s base at the district headquarters, was raided. Sources said homes were burned. The insurgents left heavily laden with their stolen supplies. They were seen moving with stolen goats, large quantities of food, and looted belongings.

Nangade’s communities were left hiding in the forest, and even those who stay in Nangade town do not feel safe, according to a local source — leading to feelings of dissatisfaction with the SAMIM forces stationed in the district. SAMIM soldiers reportedly failed to respond or react to any of the attacks despite being stationed in Nangade town and responsible for the district’s security. Attacks continued on Sunday 20 February, with the villages of Muiha, Chicuaia Velha, and Paulo Samuel Kankomba all being looted and burned.

New information was shared about some earlier events in Cabo Delgado province. A 30-year-old Mozambican was arrested on the island of Ibo over the weekend of the 12 and 13 February, after locals alerted authorities to their suspicions that he was a spy for the insurgents. He had failed to provide plausible arguments when questioned about why he had arrived on the largest island of the Quirimbas archipelago with a map and a shopping list.

Incident Focus: Who Will Protect Nangade?

The ease with which Rwandan and Mozambican forces pushed insurgents out of Palma district, and with which those same insurgents then attacked a series of villages in Nangade, raises a number of concerns — about the performance of SAMIM, coordination between the two international missions in Cabo Delgado, and about whether more use should be made of local militia to protect communities.

Rwandan and Mozambican pro-government media emphasized the importance of the bases that the insurgents were forced to leave behind in Palma, but the true significance is debatable and called into question by the manner in which the insurgents left without a fight. With Rwandan troops apparently intent on clearing Palma district of insurgents, it is easier for them to move westwards into the area nominally protected by SAMIM, who are doing a far less effective job than the Rwandans. But while it would have been easy to guess that the Rwandan operation in Palma would send insurgents in the direction of Nangade, there appears to have been no coordination with SAMIM to prepare them for a likely influx of insurgents.

South Africa is now reported to be sending a larger contingent of troops to bolster the SAMIM mission, but it remains much more thinly spread over a larger area than the Rwandan mission. But even where SAMIM troops are on the ground, their response to insurgents has disappointed locals.

Local sources in Nangade have related this week a significant level of dissatisfaction on the ground with the protection offered by SAMIM, with a widely held view being that scarce weapons are wasted in the hands of SAMIM troops.

Locals feel much more positively about their local militias, who also received an important official endorsement this month, with 230 of them receiving medals from President Nyusi at the annual Heroes’ Day celebrations held this year in Mueda in the presence of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

There has been criticism of the use of informal militia, including the lack of a legal basis for them to operate, but Fernando Faustino, head of the liberation war veteran association – the Association of Combatants of the National Liberation Struggle (ACLLIN) – put out a statement on 14 February reaffirming the ability and readiness of his organization’s members to assist the defense and security forces (FDS) in combating insurgent attacks.

The militias also received a boost from a long and admiring article in Mozambique’s leading independent weekly newspaper, Savana, on Friday 18 February. The double-page special report tells the story of the “unsung heroes,” estimating their number at around 4,000 — more than the 2,500 Rwandans and 1,077 SAMIM personnel in Mozambique combined.

Government Response 

Plans for the return of the displaced populations to the areas of origin are back on track. Following the statement by the Governor of Cabo Delgado Valige Tauabo that it was too early to advise populations to return, Mozambique's Defense Minister Cristóvão Chume set a deadline last week for the beginning of such a return. Chume guaranteed that by the end of the first half of this year, the government will be able to authorize the return of the populations “to the currently safe areas,” saying that it is justified by the improvement of security and the absence of insurgent attacks. This decision by the Mozambican government to repopulate the areas affected by the conflict comes after the CEO and President of TotalEnergies Patrick Pouyanne stated that he will not restart the $20 billion Mozambique liquefied natural gas (LNG) project until security conditions are improved and the populations have returned to their homes.  

Another aspect that is increasing the pressure on the government to send people back to their areas is the worsening situation of displaced people in southern Cabo Delgado. In the Nicuapa IDP center in Montepuez district, which hosts around 17,000 displaced people, the number of families benefiting from food aid vouchers has reduced to less than half, leaving families in a situation of food vulnerability. In the resettlement center of Ntele in Montepuez district, displaced people are complaining that workers there have been charging them amounts of money ranging from MZN500 to MZN1000 ($7-$15) in exchange for food aid vouchers that were supposed to be free of charge. On the outskirts of Ancuabe, there was confusion in the distribution of hygiene materials intended for displaced women and girls. The scenario was different in the village of Nanjua where the distribution of the same materials went smoothly.

For those people who decided to return to their areas of origin, the challenges of returning to normal life are significant. In the villages of Muambula, Muatide, and Matambalale, in Muidumbe district, classes have not yet resumed. Several schools have been destroyed by violence, and work to create alternative spaces for schools to operate is still ongoing. Also in Muambula, locals complain about the poor mobile phone coverage from the Vodacom and Movitel companies. The lack of phone coverage has a significant impact on informal businesses as many traders rely on mobile financial services provided by these operators.

Traders who fled the violence in Cabo Delgado are receiving support in the form of loans from Mozambique’s Confederation of Economic Associations (CTA). According to sources in Pemba, these loans are intended to support displaced persons, who were engaged in commercial activity in the areas affected by the conflict, to resume their activities. Once they return to their areas of origin, these traders will constitute the economic base of the conflict-affected areas.

On 17 February, the governor of Niassa visited Mecula district to assess the stage of the district's recovery after the insurgent attacks in late 2021. According to the government’s humanitarian office – the National Institute for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction (INGD) – of the 1,300 families that were in the Mecula accommodation center, 1,000 have already returned to their homes. However, from INGD’s assessment, at least 550 homes have been totally destroyed. The government has promised to support displaced families with building materials so that they can rebuild their houses, but some displaced people claim that the process is slow and lacks transparency.

The water supply crisis may be alleviated soon in Mueda. On 14 February, the Indian government made available a grant of $10 million to the government of Mozambique to assist in the supply of water in Mueda district. For the past six months or so, Mueda's 200,000 residents have been facing a water shortage. The price of a liter of water was up to MZN100-MZN150 ($1.50-$2.40) which was not affordable for the vast majority of Mueda residents. The rain season, however, has minimized the problem of water scarcity for the time being.

Rwanda's intervention in the conflict in Cabo Delgado has had a positive impact on the economic outlook for Mozambique, according to a statement by Standard & Poor's (S&P) sovereign ratings Director Ravi Bathia. Bathia said that Rwandan forces have managed to contain the violence and contributed to the stability of the northern part of Cabo Delgado, raising the prospect of the resumption of natural gas projects. 

President Nyusi went back to Brussels with Rwandan President Paul Kagame and a number of SADC leaders for the EU-Africa summit (17-18 February), again pressing for additional EU support, with a focus on underwriting Rwandan and SAMIM missions. Reports published the previous week, quoting Nyusi and claiming that the EU will send equipment to Cabo Delgado from stockpiles in Cameroon, appear to confuse reports of equipment promised by the AU earlier this month, as well as misrepresent a recent agreement within the EU for funding of additional equipment needs related to their training mission in Mozambique.

Although the EU-Africa summit resulted in no formal agreements with respect to directly supporting counterinsurgency in Cabo Delgado, the EU is considering how it might provide some support on this front. French President Emmanuel Macron called for “new solutions for cooperation” in defense and security matters in Africa, pointing to the Rwandan deployment as a good example. Impressed with Rwanda’s efforts in both Mozambique and the Central African Republic, other EU officials specifically identified Rwanda as a country they want to build such a relationship with.

No decision has been made, however, on Rwanda’s December request for funding from the European Peace Facility. The AU’s recent recognition of Rwanda’s contribution in Mozambique strengthens prospects for the EU to reach agreement on some support for its mission, but such support will likely take the form of non-lethal materials rather than lethal equipment, or money to cover operational costs. Decision-making will take some time to process and is unlikely to satisfy Mozambique/Rwanda requests and expectations. The EU will also provide limited funding to SAMIM through its Emergency Response Mechanism, which is most likely to support efforts to enhance civil-military relations and peacebuilding work. It is unclear what that will look like, given that the current national and international response to the insurgency remains very focused on militarized ‘solutions.’

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