• Total number of organized political violence events: 1,478

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,344

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,911

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Situation Summary

Last week saw a major uptick in insurgent activity. Headlines were dominated by the attack on the Indian-owned Gemrock ruby mine located in the western part of Ancuabe district, which forced the evacuation not only of that mine but also of the neighboring Montepuez Ruby Mining (MRM) – one of the largest ruby mines in the world. However, the most deadly attacks last week took place in Ancuabe, Chiure, and Macomia. 

On 17 October, insurgents, reportedly dressed in the uniform of the Mozambican Armed Defense Forces (FADM), attacked multiple villages in the Mesa administrative post in Ancuabe district, in a coordinated operation that claimed the lives of at least four civilians, but likely more. These villages include Necuecha, Chiute, Lituti, and Maremano, all within approximately 15 km of the main N14 road connecting Montepuez to Pemba. Photos circulating on social media show the beheaded bodies of four men left lying in the dirt in Chiute. Unverified reports also claim that seven were beheaded in Nicuecha and Lituti, and 15 mutilated bodies were found in Maremano. The precise number of deaths cannot be confirmed. 

In Chiure district on 22 October, insurgents terrorized villagers working in the fields in Katapua in the west of the district. First, two men, a father and son, were chased by a group of four suspected insurgents armed with machetes. Both got away, but later that day a woman arrived in the village carrying a plastic basin containing the heads of her husband and brother-in-law. Images of the basin with the two heads inside have been shared on social media. Residents have since fled the village, taking refuge in Katapua and Chiure district headquarters.

The next day in Macomia district headquarters, insurgents dressed in FADM uniform infiltrated the neighborhood of Napulubo in the afternoon and laid low before launching an attack at around 8 pm. This is the first incursion into Macomia town since October 2020. At least three were reported killed, according to some local sources. Several cars, motorbikes, and houses were also destroyed, with many residents taking shelter in the bush. Another source reported up to five fatalities, and that the insurgents systematically targeted shops and houses for supplies. They withdrew at about 1 am. 

Following the Rwanda Defence Force’s (RDF) discovery of an insurgent arms cache in Mocímboa da Praia two weeks ago, the Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS) announced on 19 October that they had also uncovered a stockpile of weapons in the same area of Mbau, including over 200 firearms with ammunition. Two days later, the RDF announced it had found another arms cache, containing assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers, this time in the Limala forest east of Mbau. Most of the weapons in all of these arms caches appeared to be substantially rusted. Whilst the finds are not insignificant, they do not shift the dynamics of the ongoing insurgency in any significant way. The insurgents have been able to operate effectively without access to these assets since they were pushed out of their bases near Mbau in September 2021.

In Nangade, a third body was found outside Ngalonga on 17 October, according to one local source. The first two were beheaded in an attack on the village on 16 October. It was also reported that 300 Tanzanian troops arrived in the district on 14 October to provide additional security. A source says they will be based at Mandimba in northwest Nangade district, on the road to Palma. The Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) launched two military exercises last week on the border with Mozambique as fears mount that insurgent activity may spread from Cabo Delgado into Tanzania’s southern Mtwara region (see Weekly Focus). The exercises come as the killings of two people near Ntambaswala on the Tanzanian side of Unity Bridge were confirmed. 

The insurgent attack on the Gemrock mine on the border between Ancuabe and Montepuez attracted the most attention last week. On the morning of 20 October, about 20 armed men, believed to have been responsible for the attacks in Mesa over the previous days, approached the camp and began firing their weapons, Zitamar News reported. The site was quickly evacuated of all personnel, leaving insurgents free to destroy at least a dozen vehicles, mining equipment, generators, and accommodation, pictures of which have appeared on social media. The Gemfields-owned Montepuez ruby mine 10 km away was also promptly evacuated. FDS quickly arrived to secure both sites and no casualties were reported in the attack. 

Although nobody was killed, the incident is symbolically significant as it is the first ruby mining concession to be targeted by insurgents. In June, insurgents beheaded two workers at the Australian-owned Grafex graphite mine in Ancuabe, prompting several international mining companies, including Gemfields, to temporarily suspend transport and logistical operations as a precaution. In this case, it was unclear whether insurgents deliberately targeted the mine with the intention of disrupting industry in the region but that was the result they took credit for, with the Islamic State (IS) newspaper Al Naba declaring that a great defeat had been inflicted on the “crusader companies” in Cabo Delgado. The Gemrock attack appears to have been a calculated operation and may signal the opening salvo of a new strategy directly targeting international assets. 

Gemrock’s statement following the attack called for the Mozambican government to do more to protect foreign companies. “Gemrock has reached out to various Government authorities and departments to provide the military support around the perimeter of its operations, provide special forces to protect its personnel and assets and has also requested the Cabo Delgado Administration to help bring back the communities returns [sic] to their homes,” the statement said. 

The much larger MRM operation, on the other hand, appears to already benefit from military support. In its own statement following the attack, Gemfields said Mozambican security forces arrived on the day of the attack and “will maintain a presence for the foreseeable future.” 

Weekly Focus: Tanzania Launches Military Exercises Across Southern Tanzania

TPDF last week kicked off two military exercises in the south of the country. Operation Dragon Fly was launched officially on 22 October, and runs from 19 to 29 October. In Ruvuma region, Exercise Linda Mpaka, meaning ‘defend the border,’ was launched at the weekend. The latter was launched with less fanfare, and no exact dates were given for it. Sources in both Tanzania and Mozambique suggest that there is mounting concern in Tanzania about the extent of extremist networks, particularly in the south of the country, without substantiating detail.

Large scale military exercises of this sort are not unprecedented in Tanzania, and usually focus on border areas. Such exercises are not always for training purposes. Operations are regularly undertaken in Kigoma district, bordering Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi. In August 2020, TPDF’s Southern Brigade, based in Songea town in Ruvuma region, undertook offensive operations in Ruvuma, Mtwara, and Lindi regions. The purpose was to root out groups involved in “crime and banditry” based in the bush across the south of the country.

In July 2017, TPDF was deployed in Kibiti district in Pwani region in order to tackle an armed group that killed a number of local government leaders and officials. The operation was successful, though some involved moved south to Mozambique and became involved in the insurgency in Cabo Delgado that began later that year.

Whether the current exercises are training exercises, or actual field maneuvers, has been left somewhat ambiguous in public announcements. Exercise Linda Mpaka is a field exercise that came at the conclusion of one year’s training, according to a statement made at the launch. Whether it was part of the training was left unclear. For Operation Dragon Fly, communications have been more ambiguous. Apart from the launching ceremony held near Lindi town, locations of exercises have not been announced, though relevant communities have been informed, according to TPDF.

Quite clear statements were made on the objective of the exercises. In Ruvuma, the objective was to prepare troops “particularly for the threat presented by terrorism.” Commander of the Southern Brigade, Brigadier-General Charles Feruzi stressed the importance of securing the borders, stating that “playing with the border is like playing with a lion’s whiskers.”

Speaking at the launch of Operation Dragon Fly, Major-General Shabani Balaghash Mani of TPDF’s Air Force Command stressed the military’s role in ensuring security for “strategic investment projects.” The launch took place approximately 10 km from the proposed site for the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, for which a host government agreement is currently being negotiated. Whether holding such exercises so close to the site will provide comfort to “strategic investors” is unclear.

Brigadier-General Feruzi’s remarks were maybe closest to the mark. Multiple sources have told of continued movement in both directions across the border, even since international military intervention. Networks on the Tanzanian side have been providing intelligence to insurgents on the movement of security forces in Mtwara, while the recent killings in Ntambaswala indicate the risk if matters deteriorate. It can likely be assumed that similar problems are faced in Ruvuma, given that Exercise Linda Mpaka is the second such exercise in that region in just over two years. 

Coming in the wake of the bilateral defense cooperation agreement signed in Maputo during President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s Mozambique visit last month, these exercises are likely to be viewed positively in Maputo. A more aggressive posture in Nangade district would also be welcome. The recent arrival of up to 300 troops in Nangade district will be welcomed in this regard. Though wholly domestic operations, the exercises may help Tanzania cement wider relations, as well as  address the domestic front of the regional security threat. 

Government Response

President Filipe Nyusi pardoned 24 supposed former insurgents on 19 October in Memba, Nampula province, Rádio Moçambique reported. The group was made up of 23 men and one woman from the districts of Memba, Nacala-Porto, and Mogovolas. Rádio Moçambique reported that the woman, reported to be a sister-in-law of Bonomado Machude Omar, one of leaders of the insurgency, had been responsible for building food and supplies for insurgents. President Nyusi said that authorities will help the reintegration of the former members to their communities, and he also encouraged those "trapped" to ask for help: "those who are trapped in Catupa or Nangade and don't know how to get out, leave us a note and we'll pick you up."  

It is widely thought that those forgiven had been captured by, or had surrendered to, the insurgents, and were not fighters themselves. Since there were no legal proceedings, this can be seen more as a political gesture than a legal one. Actual fighters captured on the field of combat would not encounter such leniency. Nevertheless, the government does seem to be trying to create the impression that insurgents will be pardoned – something which is generating outrage among many Mozambicans, who would rather see them face justice. One unconfirmed report now states that two suspected insurgents have been lynched when caught by locals rather than being handed over to the authorities, for fear that they would be pardoned.

On 17 October, the Governor of Cabo Delgado, Valige Tauabo, formally launched the Center for the Promotion of Economic Development of Cabo Delgado (Centro de Promoção do Desenvolvimento Económico de Cabo Delgado, CPDE). The CPDE is an entity run by the provincial administration set up to coordinate economic development initiatives in the province, as well as to collect funds from inside and outside the country for that purpose. The launch ceremony was also attended by the Cabo Delgado State Secretary, Antonio Supeia – a presidential appointee working in parallel to the elected Governor Tauabo – who praised Tauabo’s initiative and vision.

The initiative was immediately criticized, however, by Maputo-based think tank the Center for Democracy and Development (CDD) which accuses it of grabbing land from displaced communities. In May, Mozambique’s Council of Ministers granted a land use title to CPDE for an area of 12,000 hectares in Palma, which, CDD says, came without the requisite community consultations. Indeed, the population of the area was displaced by the conflict in March 2021 and has not yet returned, making it impossible for such consultations to be carried out. It remains unclear what CPDE plans to do with the land, but CDD says it “aims to accommodate the interests of political elites and international financial capital.” CPDE itself does not have the financial capacity to make use of the land so CDD assumes it will “be parceled out and allocated to various private entities with interests in the natural gas projects in Palma.” This will, CDD warns, lead to further conflicts and legal challenges. 

CDD also points out that many of the CPDE’s stated aims and responsibilities duplicate, or conflict with, those of the Northern Integrated Development Agency (ADIN). Moreover, CDD points out, “a year and three months after its creation, the CPD[E] has not yet appeared publicly to carry out a single activity listed in its statute and had never been mentioned in the press as a relevant actor in Cabo Delgado.” Similar charges of inactivity have been leveled at ADIN, though it could not be said to have been absent from the national conversation about Cabo Delgado’s future.

Airline Fly Indico announced that commercial flights between Pemba and Palma will be reinstated from 28 October for the first time after being suspended in March 2021. Alfred Venichand, on behalf of Fly Indico, said that the company feels that "now there is security" to resume operations. The move is another indicator of a return to a certain normality in Palma. Previously, only organizations such as the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) and TotalEnergies regularly operated planes on this route. Flights can also be expected to restart to Mocímboa da Praia, whose port has recently started receiving ships again too. Sources say that Fly Indico will use the sand airstrip in Palma despite the fact that 10 km south, Afungi has a modern airdrome built by TotalEnergies and certified by the Mozambican civil aviation authorities.

The Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of the Interior, Victor Canhemba, said that the attacks in Nampula highlighted the weaknesses and fragilities of the police force in the north of the country, Lusa reported on 21 October. Canhemba was speaking during the force's annual Consultative Council, held this year in Palma – a location presumably chosen to display the safety of that town. Canhemba said he is concerned about "the efficacy of the tactical operational planning system" and of the police's ability to gather intelligence on the ground, and pointed out that training needed to be improved.

More than 10,000 displaced people received new ID cards as part of the "legal caravan," the initiative's coordinator Fanito Salatiel told Rádio Moçambique. The 'legal caravan' is an initiative led by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the Catholic University of Mozambique launched in 2020 aimed at providing documentation and legal assistance to those affected by the conflict. 

The World Bank donated MZN75 million ($1.175 million) for the construction of a health center in the resettlement center for displaced victims in Katapua, Chiure district. Governor of Cabo Delgado Valige Tauabo said the unit will benefit 29,000 people. According to Tauabo, the initiative is part of the Northern Crisis Recovery Project, a $100 million grant approved by the World Bank in April 2021. The project aims to improve access to basic services in the region, and is implemented by the National Sustainable Development Fund (FNDS) in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. 

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