Cabo Ligado Weekly: 18-24 July 2022

July 26, 2022 Cabo Ligado

Total number of organized political violence events: 1,357
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,131
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,791

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Insurgent attacks continued at a relatively slow pace last week, albeit over a wide area of Cabo Delgado, in Ancuabe, Mocímboa da Praia, and Macomia districts. One of the largest attacks in the last week took place in Ancuabe district, around the village of Mihecane, on 19 July. A group of six residents who fled an earlier attack at the end of June are said to have returned to retrieve some belongings from their homes when they were accosted by insurgents, a security consultant report claimed. One managed to escape on a motorbike while the other five are missing, presumed dead. Three days later, Islamic State (IS) published a statement on social media claiming to have beheaded five people and burned two motorbikes at Mihecane.

Further north in Mocímboa da Praia, insurgents launched a large assault on the village of Mitope, approximately 35 km west of the district headquarters, on 22 July. The insurgents attacked at about 4 pm, burned houses, looted goods, and kidnapped several people, a local source reported. Another security source said there was a brief exchange of gunfire between local militia and insurgents, who then escaped via Chitolo village, where insurgents had attacked Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM) on 12 July. IS later claimed credit for the attack via social media, publishing a statement saying dozens of houses were burned along with a series of photos featuring burning buildings allegedly from Mitope.

Mitope is located just 10 km from the crucial junction of Awasse, which controls traffic between Mocímboa da Praia and Mueda, a transport artery that has been regarded as relatively safe for some months following the initial Rwandan offensives in the area. Several displaced families have recently returned home there, following government assurances that the area is safe. This attack demonstrates that the Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and Rwanda Defence Force (RDF), which is responsible for security in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, are still struggling to permanently dislodge insurgents from the district, despite numerous clearing operations.

Efforts to neutralize insurgents in Macomia are also struggling to make headway as insurgents were reported to have attacked the village of Litandacua, about 35 km north of the district headquarters, on 19 July. Local residents spotted the insurgents moving towards the village, causing many of them to have fled by the time the insurgents arrived. It is not known if there were any civilian casualties, but security forces, including FDS and RDF, engaged the insurgents, killing a significant number according to a woman who is said to have witnessed the incident, as reported by a security consultant. This follows a series of attacks and clashes with security forces the previous week around Nkoe and Quinto Congresso, approximately 20 km to the south of Litandacua. Residents in Nkoe have reported a concentrated presence of security forces around Nkoe and 10 km further south in the woods around Nguida in recent days, including helicopter patrols, according to news agency Lusa.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) confessed to having suffered two unfortunate events, one of which cost the life of a soldier. According to a statement issued on the SAMIM Facebook page on 25 July, members of the Lesotho Defence Force (LDF) were driving back to the base in Nangade on 22 July after having been on a patrol collecting and escorting locals to their farms. On their way back, after passing a village called Muelela, the driver of the armored personnel carrier they were traveling in swerved to avoid a cyclist, and instead hit an electric pole and lost control of the vehicle which then rolled over several times. The incident left seven LDF members injured and one, Corporal Lebohang Solomon Mofoka, dead. The injured members are receiving medical attention in Pemba and are said to be in a stable condition. Separately, one LDF member accidentally shot himself in the foot after returning from a patrol, the SAMIM statement added.

Weekly Focus: Montepuez – Ripe for the Picking?

On 20 July, London-based Gemfields released a statement reflecting a heightened sense of vigilance after the insurgent attack on 13 July at Muaja village in the Meza administrative area of northern Ancuabe, near the district border with Meluco and Montepuez. This is approximately 30 km from its subsidiary Montepuez Ruby Mining (MRM) company’s operations in south eastern Montepuez. The company also reported that large numbers of villagers were relocating west into the Montepuez district areas of Nanhupo and Namanhumbir, the closest village to the ruby mine.

The southward movement of insurgent attacks and continued incident reports in recent weeks not only raises concerns about the proximity of the insurgency to the district capital of Pemba and displaced communities that are concentrated in the south, but also the increased risks to commercial operations, including mining. In mid-June, these attacks prompted Gemfields, which holds 75% of MRM, to warn about their proximity to their operations. This followed the killings of security guards at the Grafex graphite mining project in Ancuabe on 8 June, which caused it and another neighboring mine to shut down operations.

Although insurgents have generally not targeted commercial interests since the insurgency’s inception, with some exceptions (i.e. mobile phone infrastructure, banks, etc.), IS, taking claim for the Grafex attack, made specific reference to the large number of “crusader companies” operating in Cabo Delgado, inferring these interests would be receiving more attention.

The overall number of insurgents active in the southern districts is believed to be relatively low – various sources put this between 50 and 100. Yet their presence has generated a new wave of internally displaced and compromised security on main transport arteries, especially the road from Pemba to Montepuez. Articulated intentions by IS do not automatically raise the threat threshold, but as their interests and influence grow, attacks on commercial targets are likely to become more common. They hold significant propaganda and strategic value, and lend to further undermining their primary target, the Mozambican state.

MRM has warned about the dangers of illegal artisanal mining; ironically, the previous expulsions of these miners helped to swell the ranks of insurgent recruits in 2016. In February 2020, the company noted a spike in the number of illegal miners entering their concession. Policing operations and related expulsions may provide further opportunities for insurgents who are likely to be familiar with the terrain and prospects in these areas.

Government Response

Following reports of insurgent incursions near Montepuez, local authorities were ready to appeal to local residents not to flee their villages in a "hasty" manner, as happened in the neighboring Ancuabe district in June. The district administrator of Montepuez, Isaúra Máquina, in an interview with Jornal Notícias, called on local people to remain calm and serene in the face of rumors of insurgent movements in the district. The administrator said these rumors are spread by opportunists who intend to see people abandon their homes to loot and steal their goods. In recent months, there has been a number of cases of people pretending to be insurgents in order to then practice criminal activities. One of the most recent cases is the arrest of two young men accused of setting fire to the Naputa village in Ancuabe, and then looting the goods of the population. Máquina suggested that the community leaders would be crucial in creating mechanisms for vigilance and denouncing strange movements, thus preventing the populations from fleeing.

During his recent visit to Cabo Delgado, the General Commander of the Police, Bernardino Rafael, also urged the residents of Montepuez to remain vigilant against opportunists who pretend to be insurgents. Rafael, who was speaking during the presentation of a Border Guard Police unit in Montepuez, called for close collaboration between local residents and the new police unit, which was established with the purpose of fighting terrorism and illegal immigration. He justified the deployment of the force in Montepuez by saying that the district is a privileged location for illegal immigrants to exploit rubies and carry out “terrorist” actions. Rafael said that the mission of the Border Guard Police unit is to control, prevent, and stop the wave of illegal entry and exit of foreigners, in Montepuez.

A pilot phase for this new unit was launched in November 2021, in Cabo Delgado and four other provinces. Pilot districts are Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe, Nangade, Palma, and Quissanga. Rafael has warned that illegal gem mining contributes to financing the insurgency. The new unit has a specific remit to “minimize the presence of illegals coming from countries, especially the countries of the Great Lakes.” According to Rafael, this will assist in “stem[ming] the proliferation of illegal immigrants and combat[ing] terrorism … [by] establishing a belt of security to protect villages and communities.”

Mozambique's Minister of Natural Resources and Energy, Carlos Zacarias, said that the government is creating safety conditions for the resumption of operations of TotalEnergies' Liquefied Natural Gas project in Afungi. Zacarias said that a team that will carry out an assessment of the necessary security conditions is in Cabo Delgado for this purpose. Although there is optimism from the government, analysts do not believe that the restart of the project will happen before 2024.

The coordinator of the northern operational theater, Omar Saranga, said in a report on state broadcaster TVM that between 4 to 8 insurgents die every day in Cabo Delgado. Saranga, who was part of an FDS unit stationed at the former insurgent bases of Minawa and Madina in the dense forest of Catupa, Macomia, revealed that most of the insurgents do not die in combat but from hunger and disease. The FDS has been reportedly finding dead bodies of insurgents in the bush, apparently having died from hunger and disease. The report suggests that the starvation is as a result of the intensified FDS operations, which has caused the insurgents' logistics to be cut off. In addition, the intensified operations of the FDS have also reduced the insurgents' ability to attack and loot villages. The report said that insurgents are dying of diseases such as diarrhea due to consumption of unsafe water.

The US government announced on 20 July the provision of $116 million for humanitarian assistance to those displaced by the conflict in Cabo Delgado and the impact of natural disasters in Mozambique. According to Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights, Uzra Zeya, the amount is intended for "food and nutritional assistance and to meet the health, water and agricultural needs" of the displaced. Zeya made the announcement during a meeting with Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi in Maputo.

The UN Security Council, in its 30th report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, expressed concern over the expansion of terrorism particularly in Africa, South Asia, and the Levant. In its analysis of Mozambique, the document notes that the IS-affiliated group in the country has continued to pose a threat, although its capacity has been reduced as a result of foreign military intervention and lack of food logistics within the insurgency. These factors, the document argues, have led to a "chaotic proliferation of smaller-scale violent attacks in remote villages throughout Cabo Delgado Province." On the organizational structure, it says that the insurgency in Cabo Delgado is led by Abu Yasir Hassan, a Tanzanian national, and the operational component is led by Mozambicans. It also states that most of the fighters are foreigners, particularly from Kenya, and Tanzania, but also include nationals from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Somalia. The document limits itself to viewing the expansion of global jihadist movements in Mozambique only from the international perspective, ignoring the local determinants that undoubtedly allowed the spread of the IS in Mozambique. It does not mention the mishandling of the initial insurgency by the Mozambican security forces, which likely contributed to the worsening violence.