Cabo Ligado Weekly: 20-26 February 2023

February 28, 2023 Cabo Ligado

Total number of political violence events: 1,619
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,668
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,018

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Last week saw just a handful of scattered incidents across Cabo Delgado. An insurgent presence remains in the north of Montepuez district as a bus was attacked on the R698 as it drove through Nicocue village on 21 February. The bus was hired by a mining company, and all the passengers managed to escape unharmed, but the bus was set on fire, a picture of which was published on Islamic State (IS) social media. Insurgents also entered the village of Nicocue, with one source reporting that they offered residents money to join their ranks. Another source claimed that some insurgents bought food from the villagers while others looted.

Insurgent activity in Montepuez continues to cause great displacement. International Organization for Migration (IOM) data show that 92% of all displaced from 15 to 21 February 2023 were from Montepuez. The vast majority of those, 2,793, remained in Montepuez district. When combined with displacement data from earlier in the month, IOM has recorded 11,130 people displaced within the district, due to attacks, or fear of attacks in February.

The next day, the Rwanda Defence Force clashed with insurgents in the village of Malinde, just under 10 km from Mocímboa da Praia town. It is believed the insurgents were there to replenish food supplies, possibly with the aid of local collaborators, but they were reported to the security forces by a fisherman. The Rwandans promptly launched an assault, reportedly with helicopters, and captured at least seven insurgents and killed several others.

On 25 February, insurgents killed a man and kidnapped his wife near Muambula village in Muidumbe, just five days after Minister for National Defense Cristóvão Chume visited the district. Five armed men accosted the couple on their way to their fields. When the village heard of the incident, many fled into the woods. During Chume’s visit, District Administrator Saide Aly Chabane declared that Muidumbe was free of “terrorists,” according to a local source.

In January, the area of southern Muidumbe and northern Macomia around the Messalo river was the center of insurgent violence in Cabo Delgado, but this front has been mostly quiet for several weeks. This may be about to change. In addition to the attack at Muambula, insurgents were observed crossing the N380 road east from Chai in Macomia on 26 February. It is possible they are moving toward Mucojo on the coast.

In Tanzania, at least 36 people facing terrorism charges were released from prison after the director of public prosecutions dropped charges, in most cases due to lack of evidence. The releases took place between 15 and 24 February in Dar es Salaam and Pwani regions. Some of those released had been detained for up to five years. The Shura ya Maimamu, or Advisory Council of Imams, alleges that some are being released on condition of bail, the legality of which they question.

These are not the first such releases under the current administration and reflect both a commitment to criminal justice reform broadly, as well as a recognition that many have been detained on terrorism charges unlawfully.

Weekly Focus: SAMIM Visits Nangade

ACLED has recorded no political violence events involving insurgents in Nangade district since 1 February. Yet the district continues to attract military attention, suggesting that it remains at risk of insurgent operations. Proximity to Tanzania, the plethora of security actors, and the challenges of return make for a complex security environment.

In Mtwara, Tanzania, patrolling by the Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) has increased since the beginning of the month, according to a local source. With the presence of the TPDF’s ‘URT Bilateral’ force in Nangade, as well as a Tanzanian deployment under the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), the district is home to hundreds of foreign troops.

Speaking over two weeks ago, a TPDF officer in that force spoke publicly of his force undertaking military operations in the district. SAMIM’s most prominent operations have been in the Nkonga area of the district. These started in September, and continued until at least the end of November. Both SAMIM and TPDF have made some progress. TPDF claims to have successfully driven insurgents from the area in which URT Bilateral is operational. SAMIM has given no updates on military operations in over two and a half months, though active patrolling continues.

A visit to the district last week by Kingstone Mazuba, the deputy head of mission for SAMIM, suggests that some progress had been made. On his 21 February visit, he was accompanied by representatives of the police and correctional services components of SAMIM, alongside advisors on legal issues, civilian protection, and gender. This reflects SAMIM’s September decision to move from Scenario Five to Scenario Six. The former prioritizes military operations, while the latter is described as “a multidimensional mission combining operations of military, civilian, police and correctional services components.”

The SAMIM group met with the Defense and Security Forces (FDS), community and local government leaders, and visited the center for displaced people in district headquarters. People at the center complained to the delegation of food shortages, and the authorities’ refusal to allocate them land to farm. A deployment of police was promised soon. This will likely include the recently announced deployment of police by Tanzania.

Both SAMIM and TPDF will be concerned about the whereabouts of some of the insurgents whose bases they have disturbed in the district. Nangade was, and may still be, home to some significant insurgency leaders. A recent report from the Center for Democracy and Development gave Ulanga, Abu Faisal, and Issa Wachio as the names of insurgency leaders based in the district. All three are understood to still be on the run. Tanzania may be particularly interested in Ulanga, a name associated with Morogoro region in the country. Remarks by the district administrator at a public meeting on 10 February that communities may contain “betrayers” indicate a fear that they may not have gone very far.

Weekly Round-Up

Rwandan state-associated security company opens

Zitamar News reported last week that a recently registered security company, ISCO, is controlled by Macefield Ventures, a company closely associated with the Rwandan state. Zitamar News reports that Macefield Ventures also owns at least two construction companies and one mining company in Mozambique, and that it has itself set up a local branch, Macefield Ventures Mozambique. That company is led by Desire Ngabonziza, who recently transitioned from his role as the global head of ISCO, which alongside Mozambique has operations in at least two other countries, Rwanda and Zimbabwe. A source told Zitamar News that ISCO was likely to bid for a contract to provide security to the TotalEnergies-led liquefied natural gas project in Palma district.

Rwanda and Jordan cooperate on counterterrorism

Rwanda hosted Jordan’s Director of the Department of Military Intelligence, Major-General Ahmed Husni Hasan Hatoqia in January. He was there for meetings with Rwanda’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Jean Bosco Kazura, according to Rwanda’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr. Vincent Biruta.

Dr. Biruta was speaking during the visit of Jordan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr. Ayman Abudullah al-Safadi last week. After the meeting, Dr. Biruta said that Rwanda would host this year’s meeting of the Aqaba Process, an international forum for discussion of terrorism-related issues, usually hosted by Jordan in Aqaba. President Filipe Nyusi attended last year’s meeting in Jordan.

The relationship is not surprising. In 2021, a Jordanian associated with the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), the core of IS Central Africa Province, was arrested in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In his remarks, Dr. Biruta stressed the connections between the ADF and the insurgents in Cabo Delgado. Rwandan troops have been trained in Jordan in “anti-terrorism skills and special operations” since at least 2020.

Minister of Defence visits Muidumbe

The Minister of National Defense, Cristovão Chume visited Muidumbe district last week to open the Military Operational and Sports Year. In an address to the military, Local Forces, and the local population, Chume called on the military to remain focused on counterinsurgency efforts and the defense of national sovereignty. He acknowledged some dissatisfaction within the FDS about delays in the payment of salaries and back payments of the new government salary scale. He also called for discipline and respect for human rights by the military. Addressing Local Forces, Chume reaffirmed the government's commitment to providing training, uniforms, ammunition, and food under the new law incorporating Local Forces into the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM) structure. Chume also called on the local population to denounce both undisciplined soldiers and those collaborating with insurgents. An estimated 54,000 people have returned to the district, according to the district administration.

Operation Vulcão IV comes to an end

Operation Vulcão IV has concluded, according to the FADM. Speaking to Televisão de Moçambique (TVM) in Mueda, Commander Ismael Ambasse said that the operation had ended successfully, and that the results were positive. He gave no details.

The operation lasted less than two months, having been officially launched on 1 January. According to a statement by the FADM at the time, the operation aimed to pursue and destroy “terrorist” bases in Macomia and Muidumbe districts. The number of incidents in those districts has sharply reduced in the last four weeks. But that has been a trend across the province, possibly because of the rainy season. The extent to which operation Vulcão IV has contributed to achieving the objectives it set out to achieve so far is uncertain.

Three alleged insurgents surrender in Mocímboa da Praia

Three alleged insurgents were presented to the media last week in Mocímboa da Praia district headquarters. According to reports, they had surrendered to the FDS at various times. They were named as Buanamade Aly, 30 years old, Abduremane Issa, 31 years old, and Musé Assumane, 45 years old.

According to Rádio Moçambique, Buanamade Aly was captured by insurgents in Palma town, during their offensive in March 2021. Buanamade told journalists that he worked as a medical assistant in the insurgency, and carried out administrative duties as well. He claims he left the insurgents in Nangade, though did not say when. According to TVM, Abduremane was involved in attacks in Macomia and Mocímboa da Praia districts. He claimed that the insurgents had no money with which to pay fighters. Musé Assumane’s role was to scavenge for food in villages.

It cannot be confirmed that the three were in fact insurgents. As a fighter, one would expect Abduremane at least to be in court, but no mention was made of this.