Cabo Ligado Weekly: 21-27 March

March 29, 2022 Cabo Ligado

Total number of organized political violence events: 1,208
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 3,874
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,689

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

While Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and police try to root out the remaining insurgents on Matemo island, militants continue to threaten communities in Mueda, Macomia, and Nangade districts. On 24 March, four days after attacking the village of Naida in Mueda, insurgents raided Alberto Chipande village 20 km to the west, near the Tanzanian border, known locally as Nachipande, killing at least two women. Insurgents reportedly arrived at the village firing their weapons and killed the two women as they were attempting to escape.

On 27 March, insurgents were spotted again moving in the area around Nambungali in northern Mueda. Civilians in the villages of Chipingo, Matiu, Maguiguane, and Lungango are said to be frightened and unsure whether to leave. These insurgents reportedly clashed with Rwandan troops in the district two weeks ago. Although outside of the Rwandans’ area of responsibility, they do cross the district border for urgent missions, according to a source on the ground.

Last week in Macomia, violent clashes took place between insurgents and security forces. On 21 March, a source claimed that a relative serving as a commando in the FDS was killed in battle two days before in the forests near Quissanga. The exact circumstances of his death are not yet known but his body was taken to Montepuez for burial.

Further clashes were reported on 24 March on the northern edge of the town of Macomia, approximately 40 km from Quissanga. Military vehicles were observed speeding toward the fighting, which seemed to die down within 20 minutes. Shortly after, the vehicles returned to the town. One source claims that there were casualties but this has not been substantiated.

As food shortages become increasingly grave, insurgents seemingly released around 200 hostages across Macomia, Muidumbe, and Mocímboa da Praia districts. Rwandan media first reported on Wednesday 23 March that 120 women, men, and children arrived at a joint Mozambican-Rwandan military base last week, having escaped insurgent bases. On Thursday, sources in Macomia town claimed that between 50 and 80 women, children, and elderly people arrived in the town over the preceding few days, having turned up near the villages of Chai and Muagamula on the road that runs to Awasse in Mocímboa da Praia. They have now reportedly been taken to Pemba but are not yet authorized to rejoin their families.

More hostages began to arrive over the weekend from the Messalo river area. The numbers are not yet clear but they are said to appear malnourished.

In Nangade, insurgents have also been observed moving around the Mtumbue river throughout the week but so far have not attacked. On Tuesday 22 March, a group of civilians fled after spotting a roving group of insurgents 18 km north of Nangade district headquarters. On Friday, they were seen once again around the lowlands of the Mtumbue river.

A note from security consultancy Aldebaran said there are now at least three main groups of insurgents in Cabo Delgado: one, the largest, was responsible for the invasion of Matemo island on 15 March; the second largest is currently active in Mueda and carried out the attack on Naida; and the third is based in Nangade. Aldebaran said the total number of fighters is at least 100, but likely much more. In November, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) estimated that there were 300 active insurgents, and although the total number of fighters does appear to have decreased, neither of these figures can be independently verified.

In Matemo, security forces are determined to locate the remaining insurgents who have gone into hiding on the island, which is now under strict quarantine. Fishing is prohibited and anyone going in and out of the island must be thoroughly searched and present identification papers. On Tuesday 22 March, the commander of the national police force, Bernardino Rafael, announced that canine units have been brought to Matemo. However, finding the insurgents will likely be difficult as they can effectively blend in with the population during the day and some of them are residents of the island.

Many residents of Matemo are reported to feel insecure as there were rumors of a possible attack before the 15 March invasion that were ignored by authorities and the insurgents who escaped the island warned that they will return. Many of the islanders want to leave for other parts of the country but cannot due to the lockdown.

Weekly Focus: More False Starts in Mocímboa da Praia Returns

Both the insurgency and the Mozambican government view the strategic district of Mocímboa da Praia as central to controlling the fate of the conflict and the economy of northern Cabo Delgado. During the 12 months in which the town of Mocímboa da Praia was under insurgent control, until they were driven out by a joint Mozambican-Rwandan force offensive in August 2021, the insurgents established their main bases in the district from where they planned and coordinated attacks on neighboring districts such as Palma, Macomia, Nangade, Muidumbe; on Mueda, further west; and on coastal areas and islands in the Indian Ocean. It was from Mocímboa that the major attack on the main town of Palma a year ago was orchestrated, and where all the captured civilians and looted goods from Palma were taken.

For the Mozambican government, controlling Mocímboa da Praia is key to destroying the insurgency's core, and consequently to ensuring the safety of the neighboring Palma district and the resumption of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project. If the insurgents don’t hold Mocímboa da Praia, their ability to pose a major threat to the town of Palma is reduced. Mocímboa da Praia is also the closest port to the Afungi project site, and will be vital for the development of the LNG project and the provision of logistical and maritime services. TotalEnergies's Mozambique Country Chair, Maxime Rabilloud, visited the town of Mocímboa da Praia on 13 March to assess the current port facilities that the district offers and to assess the port’s readiness for use for logistics purposes. A third important aspect is that the repopulation of Mocímboa da Praia, and the re-establishment of state services there, were pointed to by TotalEnergies CEO, Patrick Pouyanné, as a pre-condition for resuming the LNG project. The company also wants to see the return of hundreds of displaced people from Mocímboa da Praia, who are currently sheltering in the villages of Quitunda and Maganja, on the edge of TotalEnergies's project site in Afungi. Both Pouyanné's pronouncements and Rabilloud's visits increase TotalEnergies's pressure on the Mozambican government to return displaced people to Mocímboa da Praia.

However, efforts to transfer the displaced population back to Mocímboa da Praia have failed, and so far there is no certainty when this process will actually move forward. According to the current substitute administrator of Mocímboa da Praia, João Saraiva, the district is not prepared to receive either the population or civil servants. In a long interview with the Mozambican newspaper Savana, Saraiva gave an overview of the district's situation, focusing on the government's efforts to re-establish security and the return of the local population and state services. Saraiva said that the entire district was severely devastated by the conflict, with the exception of the villages of Diaka, Nanil, Panjele, and Mitose, which are on the border with Mueda district. No infrastructure in Mocímboa was spared by the insurgency. The main hospital in the district was completely destroyed, schools have not been able to resume classes, and he and the few officials who are in Mocímboa da Praia work in improvised tents. According to the Governor of Cabo Delgado, Valige Tauabo, the civil servants who are in Mocímboa da Praia are there to make preparations for the return of the displaced population.

A source said buses left Pemba last week for Mocímboa da Praia, carrying officials of the Mocímboa da Praia Municipal Council — but Cabo Ligado sources in the district said no such buses arrived. The sources corroborated Saraiva's comments and said that the district is not prepared for a large-scale return of the civil servants and the population. Even those civil servants who are in the town are restricted in where they can go, for security reasons, and civilian access is restricted in coastal area, farming areas, and other parts of the town. The district administrator of Mocímboa da Praia was in Maputo last week for a meeting on the challenges of post-conflict reconstruction in Cabo Delgado, where he said there is a plan and budget for the reconstruction of his district, but that there is currently a lack of financial resources for its implementation. At the meeting, which was also attended by administrators from Palma, Nangade, and Muidumbe, the reconstruction plan was discussed which prioritizes rebuilding local government buildings, health and education services, water supply infrastructure, and re-establishing livelihoods for displaced people to restart their lives. The Cabo Delgado reconstruction plan is budgeted at $300 million.

Government Response

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi made a three-day trip to the Kingdom of Jordan on 23 March to attend meetings under the Aqaba Process, an initiative of King Abdullah of Jordan to enhance international cooperation in the military and security fields. In his speech, Nyusi asked for support from the international community of about $300 million to finance the costs of counterinsurgency operations in Cabo Delgado, and about $320 million to strengthen defense capacity and provide training and re-equipment of troops to ensure that the defense and security forces are able to provide security when foreign forces, in reference to the troops of Rwanda and SAMIM, withdraw from Mozambique. In Jordan, the Mozambican president held separate meetings with the President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, and the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Félix Tshisekedi, and may also have met with the Tanzanian Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa, representing President Samia Suluhu Hassan, to discuss security issues in the SADC region. The content of the conversations has not been made public.

Further, the Mozambican Defense Minister, Cristóvão Chume, traveled to France and the UK from 13 to 21 March, seeking to strengthen bilateral relations in the areas of defense and security. In the UK, Chume held meetings with British government officials and attended a security and defense trade fair. He called on the international community to provide funding for the Rwanda and SAMIM missions in Cabo Delgado, as well as support in modernizing and reforming Mozambique's armed forces, as the country needs to enhance its military capacity.

Rwanda also confirmed that it has requested financial support from the European Union to fund its deployment of some additional 2,000 troops and 500 police in Cabo Delgado. According to the Rwandan High Commissioner in Mozambique, Claude Nikobisanzwe, the funding is intended to cover Rwanda's operations. Nikobisanzwe also said that there is no timeline for their departure from Mozambique and that Rwanda will remain in Mozambique until the situation in Cabo Delgado is under control. He assured that the situation in the areas under the responsibility of Rwanda, i.e. Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, is peaceful and that he is waiting for the Mozambican government to make an assessment to decide on the return of the displaced populations to those areas.

In an event organized by the Institute for Multiparty Democracy (IMD) and the Forum of Civil Society Organizations in Cabo Delgado (FOCADE) last week in Pemba, capital of Cabo Delgado province, civil society organizations demanded greater participation and involvement in the reconstruction plan for Cabo Delgado. According to them, the process of conceptualization, implementation, and monitoring of the reconstruction plan did not include civil society organizations, and is marked by secrecy given the lack of transparency and clarity about the process. In addition to exclusion, civil society organizations claim that the management of the reconstruction plan is done and implemented at the central level, which is an obstacle for the plan to take into account local aspirations and expectations. In response, the provincial government justified the non-inclusion of civil society in the process by stating that there are fears of infiltration in the working groups and that civil society must trust the entities leading the process.

Thursday 24 March 2022 marked the first anniversary of the insurgent attack on the town of Palma, a landmark moment in the conflict in Cabo Delgado. The battle that ensued after the insurgents invaded Palma lasted just less than a fortnight, but enough to create a trail of destruction and humanitarian catastrophe. Mozambican defense and security forces announced the recapture of the town on 5 April 2021. However, thousands of people had already fled Palma and an uncertain number of people died as a result of the violence. TotalEnergies suspended its LNG project in the days after the attack. A year later, there are few reports of violence in the district. Joint Rwandan and Mozambican forces are spread across the Palma district, making it the most stable of the districts hit by the conflict. Some of the infrastructure affected by the violence is being rehabilitated. Palma is one of the few districts that is seeing the return of populations thanks to stability in terms of security, but no one knows how long that stability will last, especially if the Rwandan forces withdraw from the area. There are also doubts if and when TotalEnergies's operations in Afungi will resume. Nevertheless, the challenge for the District Administrator of Palma, João Buchili, is the reconstruction and development of the district.

The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has expressed concern over the continuing violence in Cabo Delgado province. According to UNHCR, many civilians continue to flee the violence, and between January and mid-March alone, at least 24,000 people were displaced by attacks in Nangade district. Given the escalating violence, UNHCR considers the return of displaced people to their areas of origin premature, and calls for the re-establishment of security as one of the pre-conditions for their return. The refugee agency’s focus on displaced people within Mozambique contrasts with last year’s concern over the forced return of refugees from the conflict by Tanzania, a practice that still continues.