Cabo Ligado Weekly: 24-30 October 2022

November 1, 2022 Cabo Ligado

Total number of organized political violence events: 1,488
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,363
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,930

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Insurgent groups in the northern district of Nangade intensified their movements last week, while others launched a concerted drive through Chiure to Cabo Delgado’s southern border on the Lúrio river, culminating in an unprecedented incursion into Namuno district. Following their attack on the Gemrock ruby mine in Ancuabe and Katapua in Chiure two weeks ago, this group continued south to the village of Bilibiza, where they beheaded one person on 26 October, according to a security consultant. The next day, the insurgents entered the village of Savanune about 25 km south, by the Lúrio river. No casualties were reported. Bilibiza in Chiure is not to be confused with the town of the same name in Quissanga, where an agricultural college was attacked by insurgents in January 2020. This college has since moved to Ocua in Chiure.

From the north bank of the Lúrio, insurgents were well positioned to either continue south across the Lúrio and launch hit-and-run raids into Nampula, as they did in September, or move west into Namuno district, which had never experienced an insurgent attack. Unconfirmed reports, which may be recirculating an unsubstantiated rumor, claimed that some insurgents broke off and attacked the village of Muaneia in Nampula’s Eráti district, about 20 km south of the river, decapitating one person. However, reports from multiple sources said that others crossed into Namuno and attacked the village of Murameia, about 15 km from Savanune.

One of these sources claimed that insurgents arrived in Namuno in a Mahindra pickup truck, typically used by the Defense and Security Forces (FDS), on the morning of 29 October wearing the uniform of the Mozambican Armed Defense Forces (FADM) and tried to organize a meeting with the community. The village leaders reportedly contacted the district administrator and were told that these men were not soldiers and the residents should flee.

As the villagers tried to escape, the insurgents opened fire. It is not known exactly how many were killed. One source suggested there were several deaths, while a post circulating on social media claimed that the village chief and his wife were beheaded, but this has not been verified. A picture allegedly showing one of the injured with a bloodied leg has been shared online. A tractor, several vehicles, and buildings were also set on fire. Data from the International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) published on 1 November recorded that 958 people fled from Hucula locality, where Murameia is located, to Namuno district headquarters following the attack three days earlier.

The insurgents appear to have split into several groups as there was also a confirmed attack on the same day 25 km to the east in Nihamate, Chiure. At least 30 men, according to one report, burned houses in the village, forcing residents to flee. They will join the swelling number of civilians who have been displaced within the district in recent weeks. DTM data recorded a movement of 15,000 people in Chiure between 19 and 25 October following the arrival of insurgents south from Ancuabe.

On the northern side of Cabo Delgado, in Nangade, insurgents devastated the village of Liche, about 40 km south of the district headquarters, on 26 October. Up to 220 houses and tents were set on fire, amounting to most of the village. The Local Forces engaged the insurgents, killing between 16 and 19 of them, as some locals claimed, in a fierce firefight in which at least three members of the local militia were injured, a security consultant reported. The next day, insurgents returned to Liche and destroyed much of what was left of the village. Barns, food stores, and houses were burned to the ground. One source claimed the insurgents found a local resident hiding in the bush and beheaded him.

The area around Liche has been a hotbed of insurgent activity for several weeks now. Liche had been attacked only two weeks ago on 16 October, but no casualties were reported at the time. Residents in the nearby village of Ntamba 5 km away have started to flee following the latest bout of violence. Insurgent movements were also spotted in the far north of the district around Muiha, near the Rovuma river, separating Mozambique and Tanzania. On 26 October, fighters were observed passing through the forests and fields in that area. Three days later they were seen again in the same place and the next day around the nearby Mbuyuni village, on the bank of the Nangade lagoon.

The dispersion of insurgents across the district may be the result of a clash with forces of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) in the Nkonga forest on 6 and 7 October which dislodged them from their camp there. In any case, escalating violence in the district in the last month has caused massive disruption to civilian life. Only two of the five health centers in Nangade are reported to still be functioning, and many students will be unable to sit final exams this year.

Weekly Focus: Resilience in Nangade

Insurgents remained active across Nangade district last week, continuing to target civilians and disrupt significant infrastructure. This comes despite a significant change in the posture of intervention forces in the district. Operations were launched in mid-September by FDS and SAMIM forces against camps in forested lands west of the main Nangade-Mueda road. In the past fortnight, sources in Nangade have indicated that up to 300 additional troops from Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) have arrived in the northwest of the district. Their arrival coincided with the launch of military exercises on the Tanzanian side of the Ruvuma river. Yet insurgents have continued to maintain a presence in strategic areas in the south of the district, and by the Ruvuma river.

Attacks in the south of the district have regularly disrupted transport for short periods. The sustained attacks in recent weeks threaten supply of water to southern Nangade and northern Mueda districts from the Ntamba water supply system. An upgraded system at Ntamba was inaugurated by President Filipe Nyusi in May 2017. With treatment, storage, and distribution facilities, the project’s footprint extended over Nangade, Mueda, and Muidumbe districts.

Settlements along the R763 road, which links Nangade and Mueda towns, have seen increased water demand from internally displaced persons (IDPs), a need that is met by private trucking contractors. Recent attacks on Ntoli, Chibabedi, and Ngangolo which lie on the R763 have greatly reduced traffic along the route, including the movement of water tankers from Ntamba. In Nangade, IDPs and locals in Ntoli, Muade, and Mualela are affected, according to a Nangade source. In Mueda to the south, water supply to IDPs and locals at Luanda and Mpeme is affected.

In the north of the district, for the past two weeks there have been reports of insurgent movements in areas to the west of Lake Nangade and around the village of Muiha, just 10 km northwest of Nangade town. Muiha and settlements around it have been attacked by insurgents on numerous occasions since November 2021. Despite this threat, people have continued to try to make a life in that part of the district. According to a source in Nangade, the settlements of Muiha, Lilongo, Namapondo, Janguane, Mambo Bado, Paulo Samuel Kankomba, and Chicuaia Velha are still populated, but fearful in face of these more recent insurgent maneuvers in the area.

Striking Liche twice last week – as they did at Ntoli to the west on 10 and 11 October – indicates confidence in their movements. Whether the intelligence that allows them to do so comes from informers in the security forces, or from collaborators within the community cannot be known at this stage. One senior Local Forces member was arrested as an informer in the past month, according to a local source. For those in Muiha, the most strategic element may be its proximity to Tanzania during a prolonged dry season, and the prolonged ease of access that gives to support networks on the other side. Sources in Tanzania say that intelligence on troop movements within Tanzania continues to ease the movement of supplies from Tanzania, and of fighters in both directions.

Insurgent operations seem to have not been handicapped by the shifts in tactics apparent on both sides of the Ruvuma river. It is unlikely that military exercises that concluded in Mtwara and Lindi regions last week will have sufficiently disrupted support networks to worry insurgents on the Mozambican side. On the southern side of the river, FDS and SAMIM operations within Nangade have yet to deter insurgents in the south of the district from continuing to hit strategic targets.

Government Response

On Friday 28 October, Rwanda's President Paul Kagame visited his Mozambican counterpart Filipe Nyusi in Maputo. The purpose of the meeting between the two presidents has so far been unclear, and reports from local media have been vague. In light of the gathering, Lusa quoted Mozambique's Minister of Foreign Affairs Veronica Macamo's comment on the meeting in which she said that the two leaders "saluted the brave young Mozambicans and Rwandans, who, with the support of the forces of the SADC Mission, spare no effort to stop the terrorists' action on our homeland." The composition of two delegations suggests security issues were also on the agenda, but no statement from either president has been released so far. Cabo Ligado understands that the two presidents privately discussed the potential resumption of operations of the TotalEnergies gas project. A continued Rwandan security presence is understood to be a critical component of security arrangements around a resuscitation of the project at Afungi. The modalities of such an arrangement and how this will be underwritten remain uncertain. Humanitarian agency Bread for the World called out the use of an enclave strategy, saying that "security islands should not be created for economic projects, while around them the conflict continues unabated at the expense of the civilian population."

While Kagame and Nysui met in Maputo, the first trilateral maritime exercise between India, Mozambique, and Tanzania took place in Dar es Salaam between 27 and 29 October. According to a statement from India's Ministry of Defence, the objectives of the exercise were threefold: capability development through training and sharing of best practices, enhancing interoperability, and strengthening maritime cooperation. Carta de Moçambique noted that this was the Indian Navy's first exercise with African countries and follows the adoption of the Gandhinagar Declaration. The declaration was concluded during the India-Africa Defense Dialogue, which happened at the margins of Defexpo 2022 held in India earlier in the month. Bharat Petroleum Corporation of India has a 10% interest in Mozambique’s Offshore Area 1, while both the Mozambican and Tanzanian liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are targeting Indian export markets. In the recent past, India has deployed its navy in the Mozambique Channel to fight piracy and drug trafficking along the Mozambican coast, as part of its heightened strategic interest in the Western Indian Ocean region.

In other developments relating to maritime security, Cabo Ligado understands that the European Union (EU) is providing rapid intervention speedboats to the Mozambique Navy as part of its peace facility package (EPF); one of the speedboats has already been delivered.

As Mozambique's new electoral cycle approaches, the country's authorities continue to ponder whether security conditions will allow them to hold elections in Cabo Delgado next year. In a potential sign of confidence in a return to normality, Mozambique's Council of Ministers decided on 18 October, according to the Center for Public Integrity, that two new municipalities will be established in Cabo Delgado: Ibo and Balama Sede. While this can be seen as a sign that the government foresees the conditions for elections to take place in Cabo Delgado, they will still demand extra security measures, including for the electoral registration exercise which takes place anew every five years.

Ensuring long-term, sustainable food security remains one of the main concerns for the humanitarian sector in Cabo Delgado – a sector that has consistently reported difficulties in raising enough funds to keep operations running. The Director of the World Food Program (WFP) in Mozambique, Antonélia de April, said the entity requires $18 million per month to keep providing its assistance to over a million people in Cabo Delgado. Due to a shortage of funding, WFP had to halve its food aid to households in the northern region of Mozambique between April to October this year, providing less than 40% of their minimum daily caloric needs, Mozambique’s state news agency AIM reported on 24 October. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), along with Mozambican local authorities are verifying the eligibility of displaced people returning to their homes in Cabo Delgado before providing inputs for the 2022/23 agriculture season, FAO reported. The Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN) is also trying to address food security in the region by funding the construction of two food markets in Cabo Delgado, one in Chiure and one in Pemba.

Other developments in the humanitarian sector include the launch of the Safe and Inclusive Learning (SAIL) initiative in Cabo Delgado by Save the Children. According to the organization, the program aims to support around 93,000 children and 3,000 adults to access education and protection services in the region. The project will initially run in the districts of Chiure, Mueda, Metuge, Nangade, Montepuez, and Palma – all in the province of Cabo Delgado. In their statement, Save the Children notes that 64% of children of Cabo Delgado are outside school, most of them girls, and that children lost two years of education due to the conflict, displacement, and Covid-19.