Cabo Ligado Weekly: 25-31 July 2022

August 2, 2022 Cabo Ligado

Total number of organized political violence events: 1,363
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,154
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,799

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Macomia was once again the scene of insurgent violence around the area of Nkoe and Nova Zambézia last week, while insurgents in Nangade launched an attack on the district headquarters, which had never been directly assaulted before. This attack began at around 9 am on 26 July when 10 to 12 armed men entered the Chitunda neighborhood of Nangade and set fire to between 20 and 30 homes.

One local source claims at least two were killed, while Islamic State (IS) boasted of beheading three people and burning over 20 homes via a statement distributed on social media channels. Photos of the aftermath at Chitunda seen by Cabo Ligado show numerous ruined buildings devastated by fire and what appear to be at least two graves.

The insurgents were then engaged by security forces, who killed at least two insurgents and captured up to five, according to a local source. Another source, however, complained that the fact that the incident happened at all, despite the presence of a military garrison in the town, reflects a failure of the security forces. Reports have also emerged that security forces tried to prevent civilians from fleeing into the bush as they would be hard to distinguish from insurgents.

It is rare for insurgents to launch direct attacks on district headquarters, although the few occurrences, such as the capture of Macomia and Mocímboa da Praia in 2020 and Palma in 2021, have generated international headlines. The vast majority of attacks are on lightly defended, or undefended ‘soft targets’ in the countryside where insurgents can move more freely and more effectively spread terror.

This was exemplified on 24 July when insurgents killed two or three farmers working in their fields between Nkoe and Nova Zambézia, about 20 km north of Macomia district headquarters. A week later on 31 July, insurgents struck again in the area between Nova Zambézia and Vida Nova, ambushing a column of vehicles on the EN380 road, killing the driver of a fuel tanker and wounding three others, two of whom were sent for treatment at the hospital in Pemba, according to a statement from Calisto Cassiano, the District Police Commander. The driver was working for the Mozambican energy company Exito. This incident will add to fears of a tactical shift to commercial targets, and of more ambushes.

IS acknowledged the ambush the next day, but claimed to have beheaded two people in the attack, in addition to damaging seven vehicles in the convoy with machine guns. This statement, which appeared on social media, was attached to photos of two beheaded bodies, claimed to be the victims of the attack. The IS statement also mentions ambushing Mozambican soldiers, contradicting Cassiano’s explicit denial that the column was escorted by the security forces. He did claim, however, that military arrived promptly on the scene, causing the insurgents to disperse.

Reports from both Cabo Delgado and the Mtwara region of southern Tanzania indicate that the movement of insurgents across the border continues. Sources in Cabo Delgado refer to at least two incidents in the past week. A local source received information of a raid on a mosque in Maheha village in Tandahimba district on 26 July, and the arrest of an unspecified number of people there. Maheha is less than seven km from the border, and just 22 km from Nangade town. Mosques in border villages in Tanzania have in the past been used as staging posts for recruits making their way to Cabo Delgado. According to this source, the arrests followed the arrest of a group of 12 insurgents near Chihwindi village, approximately 15 km west in neighboring Newala district, who then informed on their colleagues in Maheha. A security consultant report from Mozambique mentions that on 26 July a group of 95 youths, mostly Tanzanian, were arrested on their way to Cabo Delgado. No location was specified.

According to a Tanzanian source, security operations in the Tandahimba and Newala districts of Mtwara region have intensified in recent weeks. A number of people are thought either to have been arrested or to be on the run, but specific incidents could not be confirmed on the Tanzanian side. Nevertheless, information indicates that Tanzanian authorities are concerned about continued movement to the border, particularly from Dar es Salaam and Tanga, even as fighters return to Tanzania from Cabo Delgado. Tanga region, on the coast, was a center for armed Islamist groups, particularly between 2013 and 2015, as well as being a site of recruitment by diverse groups with links to the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, and to Al Shabaab in Somalia.

Weekly Focus: A Change in Leadership of the Insurgency?

The government’s claims of a successful attack on an insurgent base in the dense Catupa forest of Macomia district may have forced some radical change in the insurgents’ organizational structure. Following the capture of the base, President Nyusi announced that the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) had captured one of the insurgency’s leaders, named Assane or Hassan, a Tanzanian national, whose last name is unknown. It is another instance in which the government announces the name of an insurgent without providing further details.

Sources in Cabo Delgado have claimed that in a meeting held in Macomia in mid-June during the days following the Catupa attack, the group elected another individual, believed to be close to Bonomade Machude Omar or Ibn Omar, to replace Ibn Omar. His name is Farido Selemane Arune.

It is important to note that this supposed change in leadership, and indeed the capture of Hassan, remain unconfirmed and may be little more than government propaganda. After weeks of negative copy, news of serious progress was much needed. Nevertheless, Cabo Ligado inquiries confirm Farido Selemane Arune is a real member of the insurgency, with a senior role. He is believed to have grown up in Milamba, a majority ethnic Mwani neighborhood of Mocímboa da Praia town, where he joined the group that would become the insurgency in 2016, at the age of around 27.

According to local sources, his introduction to Islamic education had begun in Milamba, through Sheik Saide Sufo, one of the most respected religious leaders in Mocímboa da Praia. Later, through the Islamic Council of Pemba, he was selected as a gifted student to go to the city of Beira to continue his studies. In Beira, it was suggested that he should change his original name, Farigi, to Farido, as Farigi is close to a derogatory term in Arabic. He was sent back to Mocímboa da Praia to change his documents, and to obtain a school certificate so he could continue his studies in Beira. But Farido did not get the certificate and so did not return to Beira, instead joining the Nacala mosque in Milamba, run by the sect which formed a core of the insurgency. He may also have spent some time in Tanzania, around this time.

Farido ascended to a leadership position at the Nacala mosque, being appointed as the mosque’s Imam by insurgency leaders Nuro Pira and Ibn Omar, probably thanks to his superior knowledge of the Quran. He also taught in the mosque’s madrassa, instructing women and children. He married a woman who would later accompany him into the bush.

Farido is credited with having led military missions including the ambush of an FDS column in 2019, in the region of Marere, Mocímboa da Praia. His father Selemane Arune was a well-known carpenter in the same area, who is said to have participated in an attack on Pangane in Mucojo.

Farido’s ascendency into a leadership position in the insurgency will have been helped by the fact that many of the insurgency’s top personnel are Tanzanians and other foreigners, who end up returning to their countries of origin. But Farido may also be the leader of a subdivision of the insurgency acting on a particular front, such as those currently active in Nangade and Macomia.

Government Response

While people are gradually returning to their areas of origin, the process of restoring basic services and infrastructure in the areas affected by the violence appears to be progressing, albeit slowly. On 27 July, at the launching ceremony of the United Nations Agricultural Fund project, which provide agricultural inputs to displaced families in the district of Rapale in Nampula, Cabo Delgado Governor Valige Tauabo said that many displaced people are leaving the displacement centers, and are heading back to their areas of origin. The governor said that a significant number of the displaced are returning to the districts of Mocímboa da Praia, Quissanga, and Palma, but without the formal approval of the government. These spontaneous returns, Valige said, are compromising reconstruction efforts in those areas. So the Permanent Secretary of Mocímboa da Praia, João Saraiva, asked the displaced people to have more patience, and wait for the government's guidance.

Whether or not to wait for the government’s guidance is a difficult choice when the government sends mixed messages to the displaced people. On the one hand, the government has not yet said when that guidance will be given, and has only emphasized on multiple occasions that it needs to rehabilitate key infrastructure, restore basic services, and improve security. But these processes are taking time, and the challenges in the displacement centers continue to mount. On the other hand, in April, President Nyusi said that just as displaced people have not asked for permission to flee, he does not expect them to wait for a “command” to return to their homes, a statement that may have encouraged many displaced people to return home.

The town of Mocímboa da Praia, which has seen a gradual return of displaced people, particularly from Palma district, still does not have a water supply system. The rehabilitation of infrastructure to provide water to the town of Mocímboa da Praia will start next September, and will last for eight months, following an agreement between the Administration of Water Infrastructure and Sanitation and the district government. Meanwhile, the good news for the residents of Mocímboa da Praia is the resumption of artisanal fishing activity, which had been suspended since the town was taken over by insurgents two years ago.

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) will allocate about two billion meticais (US $31 million) to fund the reconstruction efforts underway in Cabo Delgado. Some infrastructure has already been rehabilitated in the districts of Quissanga and Macomia. It is expected that in addition to Quissanga and Macomia, more basic infrastructure will be rehabilitated in Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe, and Palma. The UNDP expects to proceed quickly with the reconstruction of the infrastructure in these districts, starting in August and September.

Figures from the International Organization for Migration estimate that the number of people displaced by the conflict in Cabo Delgado reached 946,000 people in June, with an increase of 21% since February. Most of the displaced people (70%) live in host communities, with the remaining 30% in displacement centers. The humanitarian crisis in Cabo Delgado has been exacerbated by recent insurgent attacks in Meluco, Ancuabe, Nangade, and Macomia. While these recent displacements will increase the challenges in humanitarian delivery, the World Food Program has been able to obtain funds needed to finance its humanitarian operations in northern Mozambique until January 2023.

The Mozambican Ministry of Defense revealed that it has difficulties in identifying the sources of funding for the insurgency in Mozambique. According to the Inspector-General of the Ministry of Defense, Victor Muiriquele, the difficulties in identifying the financial backers of the insurgency are due to several reasons, especially the fact that they operate from outside the country, which also makes it difficult to block these sources of funding.