• Total number of organized political violence events: 951

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 3,218

• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 1,471

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Situation Summary

More information came to light last week about Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) operations in Cabo Delgado, as Rwandan forces shared details of their engagements in a press presentation on 29 July. At the presentation, an RDF spokesman confirmed the RDF’s participation in an effort to retake Awasse, Mocimboa da Praia district, and outlined five clashes that Rwandan troops were involved in as part of that effort.

The first two took place just before the week covered by this Cabo Ligado Weekly, on 24 July. According to the spokesman, Rwandan forces engaged insurgents at Awasse on 24 July, killing four in the attack and recovering weapons. The same day, Rwandan forces ambushed two insurgents traveling by motorbike between Awasse and Mbau, to the southeast. Both insurgents were killed, and the spokesman noted that a laptop containing documents written in KiSwahili was found with the insurgents, along with weapons.

Two days later, on 26 July, Rwandan forces killed five insurgents and captured weapons in an engagement at Awasse, according to the RDF spokesman. According to another source, Mozambican helicopters were also involved in the fight, supporting Rwandan troops on the ground.

Rwandan troops were also in action the next day, 27 July, in an incident that was not included in the RDF press presentation. Rwandan troops operating south of Awasse in Chinda, Mocimboa da Praia district, ambushed a small group of insurgents, killing two of them.

Also on 27 July, insurgents attacked the village of Chacamba, in Nangade district, about 10 kilometers east of Nangade town. The attackers killed and kidnapped an unspecified number of civilians, and burned the homes in the 8th of April neighborhood of the village.

The incidents described at the RDF press presentation conclude on 28 July, when, according to the RDF spokesman, insurgents counterattacked Rwandan forces at Awasse. During the fighting, the RDF spokesman said, one Rwandan soldier was injured and one insurgent was killed. Insurgents attacked the vehicle carrying the injured Rwandan and Rwandan soldiers responded, killing two insurgents. 

On 30 July, the conflict returned to Nova Familia in Nangade district, just nine days after insurgents last attacked there. In a skirmish between a joint Mozambican-Rwandan force and insurgents, three Rwandans were wounded and 13 insurgents killed. The remaining insurgents fled, reaching nearby Ngongo, where they killed one civilian and wounded another in the leg. The incident in Nova Familia appears to confirm reports that Rwandan troops have been deployed to Nangade along with Palma, Mueda and now Awasse.

The RDF spokesman claimed that no Rwandan soldiers have been killed or seriously injured in Cabo Delgado thus far, and no specific claims of Rwandan combat fatalities have appeared, but multiple sources suggest that the toll on Rwandan forces has been significant. A source based in Mozambique reports that flights left Afungi for Kigali on 25 and 26 July carrying Rwandan casualties from fighting near Awasse. Another source, in Rwanda, also understands that Rwandan troops have taken “heavy casualties,” but no estimates for the extent of the casualties are available. 

Incident Focus: Islamic State Claims

Narratives about the Cabo Delgado conflict are increasingly being contested outside of Mozambique. The RDF is giving presentations in Kigali claiming (believably) that Rwandan forces are making progress in retaking areas on the route to Mocimboa da Praia and (less believably) that it is taking no serious casualties while doing so. These kinds of claims -- at a level of detail about particular incidents that the Mozambican government has not matched at any point in the conflict -- have led the Mozambican government to make explicit the implication that Rwanda’s entrance into the conflict has fundamentally changed the situation on the ground. Mozambican defense minister Jaime Neto told reporters last week that the insurgents are now being “beaten” by the Rwandan and Mozambican offensives.

But another foreign force has an interest in countering that narrative. The Islamic State (IS) has dramatically increased its pace of attack claims in Mozambique in recent weeks. Last week alone, the group made seven claims, as follows: 

• The first claim stated that, starting on 17 July, the group had clashed with the Mozambican military and local militias at “Metope,” Mocimboa da Praia district, for two days. According to the claim, the group killed and wounded a number of Mozambican troops and burned buildings in the village. The claim lines up with a reported 17 July attack on Mitope, in Mocimboa da Praia district.

• The second describes a skirmish with local militia forces at Mandava, Muidumbe district, on 20 July in which two militia members were killed and buildings burned. There was a reported attack on Mandava on 18 July.

• The third says that there was a clash between insurgents and local militias in “Pangani,” which the claim places in Mocimboa da Praia district, on 22 July. Presumably the claim actually refers to Pangane, a coastal community in Macomia district. No corresponding attack was recorded in the Pangane area around 22 July.

• The fourth claims that insurgents killed three local militia members at “Ambuda” in Palma district on 24 July. The claim may refer to Nampuida, a village roughly 15 kilometers northwest of Palma town. No corresponding attack was recorded in the area around Palma on 24 July, but such a confrontation may well have happened, given ongoing operations in the area.

• The fifth describes an attack on a government barracks at Chai, Macomia district on 28 July. Cabo Ligado has not been able to confirm this attack, but a single source does report that insurgents attacked a Mozambican government patrol in Chai on 28 July.

• The sixth claim indicates a return to Mandava, Muidumbe district on 28 July. It says that insurgents killed two militia members there and stole weapons and motorbikes. No corresponding attack at Mandava has been recorded.

• The seventh claim also concerns Mandava, claiming that insurgents killed one Mozambican military officer and wounded another soldier in a clash there on 31 July. The claim includes a photograph of identification documents of a Mozambican first sergeant, alleging that the documents were looted from the dead soldier. A single source reports a clash at Mandava on 1 August, in which several soldiers were killed and injured.

What is notable about these claims, aside from their role in countering the Rwandan narrative of momentum on the Mozambican government’s side in the conflict, is how little they engage with the fighting going on around Awasse. While Mozambican and Rwandan forces appear to be making progress toward Mocimboa da Praia town -- which, if they could take it, would be a major symbolic and strategic victory for government forces -- IS is choosing to highlight operations elsewhere in the province. Indeed, the claims make no mention at all of Rwandan forces, much less those leading the charge at Awasse. This suggests that IS would rather direct attention away from events along the road between Mueda and Mocimboa da Praia and instead draw focus to its ongoing, smaller-scale operational successes in other districts. If insurgents can score a major victory against Rwandan forces, however, the tenor of IS claims may soon change. The pace of their release, however, will likely remain high as long as Rwanda continues to make the case that it is winning the conflict. 

Government Response

A report last week from Ibo district highlights the extent to which displacement from Palma has strained systems set up to serve displaced populations in Cabo Delgado. Matemo and Ibo islands have long been relatively stable havens for people from coastal areas displaced by the conflict. Last week, however, reports emerged of widespread hunger and inadequate lodging on Ilha Matemo, with people resorting to eating cassava with coconut for lack of food aid. Ilha Matemo has been a major transit point for people fleeing Palma by sea, with some displaced people moving south from the island toward Pemba and others choosing to stay on Ilha Matemo. The Ibo district administrator acknowledged the problem to journalists, saying that new arrivals have stretched the government’s ability to serve the over 4,000 displaced people on the island.

There is some positive news on the humanitarian front, however. Teams of nurses employed by the Mozambican government are now traveling from Pemba to Macomia town and back two to three times per week to offer medical services in the town. There is also an ambulance based in Macomia that can take emergency patients to Pemba for further treatment. Even with the nursing teams, civilians in Macomia are still relying substantially on doctors from Médecins Sans Frontières, who are providing medical services in some parts of the district.

Development projects related to the conflict are also beginning to bear fruit. Last week, some 300 young people who had been displaced by the conflict graduated from a job training program in Pemba that focused on construction skills. The training likely improves their prospects in the job market, but the program’s outcome highlights the extent to which Cabo Delgado’s economy remains hostage to the ongoing conflict. A group of at least 60 graduating students signed contracts with Renco Energy, the Mozambican subsidiary of the Italian construction firm Renco. Whether they will get to use their new skills for Renco is, however, still an open question -- Renco Energy’s major contract in Cabo Delgado is to build the 200 square kilometer “Gas City” development on Afungi, which is currently mothballed due to the conflict.

According to Northern Integrated Development Agency head Armindo Ngunga, these kinds of programs aiming to help displaced people make new lives in the areas to which they have fled will be a core part of his agency’s work. Speaking to displaced people in Ancuabe district last week, Ngunga urged them to begin cultivating fields and building homes in Ancuabe rather than plan on returning to their communities of origin. He said that wells were already being drilled to support added agricultural production in the area. Ngunga’s comments reflect an ongoing pattern of the government indicating that displaced people are unlikely to return home anytime soon, which suggests that friction between displaced populations and host communities may increase over time.

There has been some progress in securing more legal protections for displaced people, regardless of where they end up living. Mozambique’s Justice Ministry announced last week that it is expanding its program to issue birth certificates for displaced Mozambicans lacking documentation to reach 55,000 people. The program has already issued 44,000 documents, but many others still have their mobility and access to government programs limited by missing documentation. 

On the international front, new details emerged last week about the makeup of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) standby force for Mozambique. The South African government authorized the deployment of up to 1,495 troops to Mozambique through 15 October. At full strength, the government expects the deployment to cost over $66 million, but sources in South Africa suggest that the South African deployment is unlikely to reach the full level authorized. The SAS Makhanda, a South African Warrior-class patrol ship, arrived in Pemba last week, and armored vehicles from the 43 South African Brigade reportedly crossed the border in southern Mozambique last week as well. A squadron of South African Rooivalk attack helicopters was also reported in Pemba as of 3 August, and images circulating on social media show a Botswana Defence Force convoy headed toward Cabo Delgado. Update: A reliable expert contests that report, saying that as of 23 August there were no South African Rooivalk helicopters in Mozambique.

Angola also pledged soldiers to the effort, authorizing a 20-person deployment along with a transport plane. The military personnel will service the aircraft and serve as advisors to the Mozambican military, but will not engage in combat. Angola estimates the cost of the deployment at $675,000, and plans to contribute over $1 million to the overall SADC effort.

For its part, Zimbabwe will send 303 military instructors to train Mozambican forces as part of the SADC mission. At the announcement, Zimbabwean defense minister Oppah Muchinguri told reporters that the instructors would not be involved in combat. The deployment will be in addition to Zimbabwean training efforts already ongoing in Mozambique.

All of these foreign troops will be under strict scrutiny from certain corners of Mozambican government and civil society. Mozambique’s National Commission on Human Rights, a state institution, urged the government last week to draw up a code of conduct for foreign troops involved in the Cabo Delgado conflict. The Commission expressed concern that foreign troops might mistreat Mozambican civilians -- especially women -- and said that harsh punishments should be handed down for any mistreatment. The call reflects the misgivings some Mozambicans have over the arrival of foreign forces -- the Commission has made no equivalent call to prevent or punish the numerous documented abuses that Mozambican troops have committed against civilians in Cabo Delgado.

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