• Total number of organized political violence events: 1,458

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,318

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,899

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

The insurgency’s main theater of operations last week was in Cabo Delgado’s central and northern districts of Quissanga, Meluco, Macomia, and Mueda, where civilians were once again the main target of attacks. However, clashes between insurgents and security forces were also reported. Further details of the 23 September attack on Homba In Mueda also emerged. New reports indicate that insurgents encountered resistance from Local Forces, one of whom was killed in the fighting. President Filipe Nyusi also made a rare acknowledgment that security forces “came into contact with the enemy in the Homba area.” A statement from the Islamic State (IS) on 29 September claimed responsibility for killing one person, burning a vehicle and dozens of houses in the attack, but did not mention a clash with Local Forces. 

Multiple sources attest to the killing of the militiaman, with some reports claiming that the Local Forces managed to kill seven insurgents in return. These reports paint a dramatic scene of the battle, and heroism of the Local Forces. One source suggested a local fighter defended the body of his fallen comrade and killed all seven insurgents single-handedly. Another reported that the fallen militiaman named Abilio sacrificed himself after he was shot, calling on his brothers in arms to take his weapon and continue the fight without him Ultimately, the Local Forces ran out of ammunition – a seemingly common challenge – and had to withdraw. The veracity of these stories cannot be independently verified, but they will surely become the stuff of local legend.

A week passed before another confirmed attack was reported in Cabo Delgado. On 30 September, insurgents beheaded up to two people in the fields near the village of Nangololo, in eastern Meluco district on the N380 road to Macomia. Carta de Moçambique reported that one of the victims was making a traditional sugar cane based drink when he was ambushed by the insurgents.

On the same day in Ntapuala, Macomia, just 7 km north of Nangololo, insurgents beheaded another farmer as he was walking to his field. His head was left on top of a bucket, and was later found by a group of young people. According to one local source, the insurgents ate in a nearby sugar cane field and left behind 40 piles of chewed sugar canes, leading locals to conclude that there were 40 of them. Reportedly, the victim was a displaced person from Crimize village near Mucojo in Macomia who had arrived with his wife in Ntapuala two years earlier.

On 2 October, Nguida, about 20 km northwest of Macomia district headquarters, was attacked by unknown perpetrators. Up to six houses were burned, one source claimed, but some in the local population suspect that Mozambican security forces were responsible and used the insurgency as a scapegoat to try to loot the village’s goods. Whatever the truth of this allegation, it reflects a major trust deficit and ongoing challenges of mutual suspicion between the locals and government forces.

Meanwhile, government security forces claimed significant battlefield success against the insurgents in the last week. Speaking in Bilibiza, Quissanga, on 28 September, Bernardino Rafael, Commander of the Police of the Republic of Mozambique, announced 16 insurgents died in the previous 72 hours in Cabo Delgado following direct fighting with the Defense and Security Forces (FDS). This claim could not be verified — and nor could his claim that some of the dead had been killed by wild animals. A security analyst told Cabo Ligado that nine insurgents had been captured during FDS operations in the area.  

There were also reports of several insurgent surrenders. One source claimed at least 31 people arrived from an insurgent camp in Mocímboa da Praia on 27 September, but it has not been confirmed if they were fighters or hostages. Three days later in Nangade town, two insurgents turned themselves in at the police headquarters and they are now being held in military custody, a source reported. Before surrendering, they hid their weapons, which have now been recovered by the authorities. The nationalities of the insurgents have not yet been revealed. 

Weekly Focus: Return and Reintegration of Fighters

The surrender of two insurgents to Mozambican authorities in Nangade on 30 September indicates that the insurgents remain under some pressure, and that there is some demand to return to society. This is not the first surrender in Nangade. In May, up to 60 young men gave themselves up to the FDS in the district. For those who decide to return, and for the communities expected to receive them, there are no formal processes in place yet to allow for adequate screening that will protect communities. Nor are there modalities in place to support reintegration for returnees and hosts alike. Calls to surrender, and assurances of amnesty are common. What happens to those who respond to these calls and actually surrender remains unknown. This compounds an environment already replete with uncertainty, and reflects a wider communication challenge faced by government.

Surrender of fighters and their reintegration is a clearly stated objective of government. The first amnesty offer was made in December 2017 by police chief Bernardino Rafael. Since then, offers of amnesty have been made regularly. In Pemba in January 2021 President Filipe Nyusi made such an offer. Three months later he made the offer again during a national address. In October 2021, he called for insurgents to surrender to the FDS, but without specifying what may await them. As recently as May this year, Rafael, speaking in Macomia district, once more urged insurgents to give themselves up, promising a humane reception from the FDS. Leaflets have even been printed in Portuguese, Makua, Mwani, Swahili, and Makonde languages. Urging “Dear compatriots” to “return home… your people are waiting for you,” these leaflets were distributed in Macomia in July this year, and in Nangade in September. Yet like the public pronouncements of amnesty, they give no guidance on how returnees might approach authorities, or what may await them.

Having encouraged return so many times, the state now seems to be concentrating on narratives of return, remorse, and forgiveness. Though the Nangade returnees remain in detention, a local source says that after investigation by police into their origins, the returnees will be presented at a public meeting. President Nyusi himself held two public meetings recently in Pemba and Mocímboa da Praia on 20 and 21 September where a total of over 60 people were presented as remorseful insurgents, and communities were urged to forgive them. No detail was provided of what they had done, and whether they would be dealt with through the criminal justice system, or directly reintegrated into communities.

There was a theatrical element to the Mocímboa da Praia meeting. On his first visit to the town since 2019, President Nyusi told the small crowd gathered on 20 September that he had urged the FDS to not harm those who want to give themselves up. A group of men were then presented in front of the stage. Speaking later that day in Pemba, he claimed that they were 42, though footage shows about a dozen. Nyusi joked with one: “Did you kill a little?” “I didn’t kill!” the man cheerily replied prompting the crowd, the man’s colleagues, and Nyusi himself to laugh. Like the leaflets, the meetings in Mocímboa da Praia and Pemba left nobody wiser about how surrendering insurgents should be received, let alone whether they remained in custody and were facing charges. Narratives of successful reintegration are lacking.

Surrender of fighters and their reception by communities is clearly a priority for government. In practice, sources indicate that returning fighters will make an effort to contact local authorities, either civilian or FDS. In Nangade, the two recent returnees are understood to have approached civilians, and asked to be taken to the police in whose custody they remain. The men who surrendered in May took a similar approach. Another source says that in Rwandan areas of responsibility the Rwanda Defence Force allows local authorities, civilian and FDS, to manage the reception and screening of returnees. Beyond that, it is not clear what happens to those in custody; there has been no apparent reconciliation between the number of insurgents that have been captured and surrendered and those that are currently in custody. It is also not clear if and whether these elements will be processed through the criminal justice system. Steps to reassure future returnees might include granting access to observers to monitor processes of reception by the security forces, and establishing clear procedures for community leaders, local government authorities, and FDS to follow when accepting returnees. Testimonies of actual reintegration may do the most for encouraging return. 

Government Response

The Defense Ministers of Mozambique, Cristóvão Chume, and Tanzania, Stergomena Tax, held meetings in Maputo last week, following up on the agreement signed by the two countries' presidents to cooperate on security issues and a gathering of experts in defense and security from both countries. 

Some details emerged about the security agreements, with the defense ministers announcing cooperation on intelligence sharing, and military training. Speaking on 29 September, Chume said that the aim of the agreement was to “reinforce the fight against terrorism in some districts of Cabo Delgado province and the border security between Mozambique and Tanzania,” adding that “individuals with obscure agendas cannot continue to take advantage of the courtesy, hospitality and cordiality of our peoples to carry out subversive actions.” Tanzania's Tax said that “we are convinced that all agreements signed here will be implemented on time and faithfully.” Details of successful implementation of previous agreements are not available. 

The agreements are the latest steps in strengthening relations between the two countries. In recent months this has included a visit by Tax to Maputo and Cabo Delgado in early August, and the resumption of meetings of the two countries’ Joint Permanent Commission in Dar es Salaam in the same month. Prior to August, the most recent meeting had been held in 2006. In early September, Mozambique’s Chief of Defense Forces, Admiral Joaquin Rivas Mangrasse, visited Dar es Salaam for talks with his counterpart, General Jacob John Mkunda. 

On 3 October, shortly after returning to Tanzania, Stergomena Tax was appointed as Minister for Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation, with her place as defense minister taken by Innocent Bashungwa, who up to now had been Tanzania's minister for regional administration and local government. Tax replaces Liberata Mulamula. No reason has been given for Mulamula’s removal, but remarks by President Samia Suluhu Hassan at the swearing in of her replacement suggested that she may have overstepped her authority in some way. The change, however, should not make much practical difference to the agreements with Mozambique, as the more influential figure is arguably the chief of the defense forces, who has not changed.

Alberto Armando, from Mozambique's National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction in Nampula, said on 3 October that 47,000 people in the province were displaced during the month of September, resulting from the attacks in Eráti and Memba districts. The numbers are consistent with data released by ActionAid last month. Most of the households have already returned home, Armando added, while 18,000 people are still displaced. The fact that most of the displaced have returned home within weeks is not simply a case of improvements in security; in fact, many areas remain vulnerable. Cabo Ligado received reports of government pressuring displaced people to return, which some interpret as part of a wider effort from authorities to promote a normalization narrative. Local sources also report that displaced families struggle to receive humanitarian assistance in the communities they fled to. 

Mozambique's Minister of Gender, Children and Social Action, Nyeleti Mondlane said that humanitarian organizations operating in Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa should have a coordinated approach in order to effectively address the needs of the people, reported Notícias on 29 September. The minister said that the new management and information system for the northern region, recently launched in Pemba, will support organizations and government institutions by providing more data on humanitarian interventions in the area. 

The latest update from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) shows that conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado are set to face a situation of food insecurity crisis until January 2023 due to low food reserves and local households having limited sources of income. According to FEWS classification, food insecurity is divided into five phases, phase 1 being minimal food insecurity and phase 5 being famine. The conflict-hit districts of Cabo Delgado are in phase 3, while more accessible areas where humanitarian organizations are able to distribute food assistance to displaced households and local communities face a “stressed” situation, known as phase 2. However, FEWS notes that the phase 2 areas in Cabo Delgado would likely be considered phase 3 without the current or planned humanitarian assistance.

In attempts to address the food crisis, the European Union announced €23 million in support for food security efforts in Mozambique, with €8 million being allocated specifically to emergency food assistance purposes. This is part of the EU's €600 million effort to step up humanitarian assistance in the most vulnerable countries in Africa, the Caribbean, and Pacific.

Speaking on 30 September, Zanzibar Police Commissioner Hamad Khamis Hamad announced that two people had been arrested for involvement in recruitment for armed groups operating outside Zanzibar. Commissioner Hamad stated that in their investigations they had discovered training materials with Quranic references “used to encourage youth to join terrorist groups in their actions against government they regard as kafir.” The arrests followed an investigation by journalists into recruitment practices in Zanzibar published in early September. 

On 27 September, Rwanda's Major General Eugene Nkubito, who was deployed to command the Rwandan troops in Mozambique in late August and is seemingly keen on engaging with the media, outlined the current situation in Cabo Delgado during a press briefing. According to Nkubito, Rwandan and Mozambican forces managed to destroy all insurgent strongholds in Muidumbe, Mocímboa da Praia, and Palma districts. Other achievements highlighted by the general were the capture of weapons and rescue of civilians from the hands of insurgents. More than 130,000 displaced people have now returned to their homes and villages, said the general. Stabilization activities are being carried out, he said; Rwandan officers are helping with community work, cleaning the areas, and cutting grass. Among the challenges security forces face, Nkubito mentions poor road network, making it particularly challenging during the rainy season which runs from October to March, and lack of mobile network coverage especially in remote rural areas. 

The media coverage of the Rwandan mission in Cabo Delgado has intensified in the last weeks, particularly after the visit of Tanzanian President Samia Suhulu Hassan to Mozambique last month. Over the past week, Rwanda's The New Times has featured eight stories about the mission in Cabo Delgado, including an exclusive interview with Major General Eugene Nkubito, in which he spoke of operations during the current stabilization phase. In social media, twitter accounts of newspapers and media personalities have also engaged in coverage of the Rwandan forces in Mozambique.

© 2022 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). All rights reserved.