Cabo Ligado Weekly: 30 January-5 February 2023

February 7, 2023 Cabo Ligado

Total number of political violence events: 1,606
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,654
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,014

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Insurgents have broken into three main fighting groups which last week carried out simultaneous attacks on 4 February across Mueda, Montepuez, and Meluco districts. The attacks apparently had the intention of cutting off the two main highways connecting the north and south of Cabo Delgado province, and came just as TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné was visiting the region (see below). One force struck Chapa village in Mueda in the morning, beheading at least two civilians and kidnapping several others, according to local sources. Islamic State (IS) claimed via social media to have killed five. This was likely the same group that attacked Nacala and Homba in southern Mueda on 24 January. Chapa is approximately 25 km south of Mueda district headquarters on the R698 road connecting Mueda to Montepuez.

That day, 4 February, over 100 km south down the R698, another group entered Namoro village in Montepuez district, burning houses and buildings. No casualties have been reported so far, but IS photos confirmed to have been taken in Namoro show numerous buildings ablaze. This attack was probably committed by the same group that bought supplies in Ravia on 29 January where they claimed to come in peace, but then clashed with the Naparama local militia the next day, killing five of them. Military authorities introduced armed escorts along the R698 later that day.

Meanwhile, in Meluco, another group stationed by the N380 road connecting Pemba to the north of the province, ambushed several passing vehicles near Mitambo village, approximately 40 km south of Macomia town. At least one civilian was killed – a driver working for humanitarian NGO Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), who was on a bus back to Pemba to see family.

This group of insurgents had spent much of last week carrying out attacks in Meluco. On 1 February, they ambushed two Mitsubishi Canter vans and a minibus on the N380 near the village of 19 de Outubro, just 5 km north of Mitambo, killing up to seven people, including a nurse, and injuring seven more. The three vehicles were left burning on the road. The day before, the same group of fighters battled with the Naparama in the forests around Iba village on the Meluco-Macomia border where at least 14 Naparama and four insurgents were killed. Pictures of the bodies of the dead Naparama piled on top of each other were published on the front page of the IS newspaper al-Naba, and videos have also since emerged.

Other smaller groups of fighters continue to operate across the province. In Nangade district, Mozambican and Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces pushed insurgents out of the Nkonga forest and across the Nangade-Pundanhar road. On 1 February, the insurgents appeared in Mbuyuni village next to the Nangade lagoon and assured residents they were there to peacefully purchase supplies, as other insurgent groups did at Ravia last week, and Calugo in Mocímboa da Praia the week before that. Two days later, the insurgents tried and failed to cross the Rovuma river into Tanzania and returned to the Nkonga forest, a local source reported.

In Ancuabe, a suspected insurgent was captured in the village of Ntutupue and taken to the military command at Macarara, where he reportedly confessed to doing reconnaissance to help fighters travel south towards Nampula province. He said there were many of these fighters but claimed he did not know whether they planned to attack in Nampula or in southern Cabo Delgado.

Weekly Focus: Pouyanné’s Hope for the Return of TotalEnergies

Patrick Pouyanné’s visit indicates that TotalEnergies is keen to resume its liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, stalled since the declaration of force majeure in April 2021. The TotalEnergies CEO landed early on 3 February at Pemba, before flying north to Afungi. Highlights of his trip were a road trip to Mocímboa da Praia, and an announcement that TotalEnergies itself is to conduct an assessment of the humanitarian situation, before dinner with President Filipe Nyusi in Pemba in the evening. The same night, he flew back to Paris.

Quoted in a TotalEnergies press statement, Pouyanné laid out three parameters on which a decision to resume will rely: “the restoration of security in the region, the resumption of public services and the return to normal life for the people of the region.” He struck a positive note, saying that things have “improved significantly,” thanks to SADC and Rwandan forces.

To help TotalEnergies assess progress on the three parameters, Pouyanné announced the appointment of Jean-Christophe Rufin to assess “the humanitarian situation,” and present findings to TotalEnergies and its partners in the LNG project by the end of February.

An early volunteer with Médecins Sans Frontières and later its vice president, Rufin has represented the French government as ambassador in Senegal and Gambia, and worked in France’s Ministry of Defense on peacekeeping issues, and been an adviser to France’s secretary of state for human rights. He will be seen by many he interacts with in the coming weeks, perhaps correctly, as a representative of Pouyanné, and of wider French interests.

Marginal to last Tuesday’s visit was the Mozambique state, and President Nyusi, who had to fly north to Pemba to meet Pouyanné, rather than receive him in Maputo. There was no mention of Mozambique or its Defense and Security Forces in TotalEnergies’ official statement, a mistake that was not made in a Ministry of Energy statement on the two men’s meeting. The TotalEnergies statement makes it clear that the decision to resume or not will be made by the LNG project partners, informed by Rufin’s report. As Rufin consults widely in the coming weeks, that lack of national control over the project’s future is what may be most occupying the minds of his informants.

Weekly Round-Up

Nyusi says insurgency is led by Mozambican ‘Bin Omar’

On 2 February, President Nyusi acknowledged for the first time that the insurgency in Cabo Delgado is led by a Mozambican, named Abu Sorraca, also known, he said, as Bin Omar. These are names used by Bonomade Machude Omar. He was formally designated by the United States (US) Department of State as a senior leader of IS in Mozambique in 2021.

Mozambique’s General Commander of the Police, Bernardino Rafael, suggested on 13 August 2018 the names of six men who allegedly lead the insurgency, including Ibn Omar. The Centre for Investigative Journalism published a detailed profile of him in 2020.

What’s new is the recognition by the president of a leader, with a name, having repeatedly said that the insurgency is faceless. But the existence of Bin Omar, or Ibn Omar as it is more commonly rendered, as a leader of the insurgency has been known from the start. Nyusi, however, suggests that acknowledgment of the insurgent leadership is not enough to move towards dialogue as his whereabouts and interests are unknown.

New municipalities approved, but vital details still missing

The Mozambican parliament approved on 12 December 2022 the creation of new municipalities. Cabo Delgado will have two more municipalities, Balama and Ibo, in addition to the existing ones of Chiúre, Mocímboa da Praia, Montepuez, Mueda, and Pemba. However, the election management entities – the Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration and the National Election Commission – do not yet know the boundaries of the new municipalities, and apparently disagree on who is responsible for approving the boundaries, according to the Mozambique Political Process Bulletin. Where the boundaries end up could influence how much revenue the new municipalities are entitled to collect.

Senior military officers promoted

Two colonels in the Mozambican military were promoted to the rank of brigadier last week. Andre Rafael Mahunguane was made chief of staff of the Casa Militar, the presidential guard; and Eugenio Henrique Zitha Matlaba was made vice commandant of the Academia Militar Marechal Samora Machel, a military academy in Nampula.

Little is known of Mahunguane, though at the two officers’ swearing-in ceremony, President Nyusi praised him for his service in Cabo Delgado. Matlaba is notable for having been the first chairman of Proindicus, the first of three quasi-state-owned offshore security companies set up by the secret services to borrow 2 billion US dollars from international banks. Integrity Magazine speculates that his promotion may be a reward for testimony given in the court case around those deals, which have become known as ‘the hidden debts.’ His testimony was in favor of Nyusi and damning to his predecessor, former President Armando Guebuza.

Comprehensive data on displacement released

The International Organization for Migration has made available to the public a dataset of basic data from its most recent assessment round conducted in Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces. The 17th round of their Mobility Tracking Assessment was conducted over October and November 2022. The full data is currently available in a spreadsheet, with visualizations expected soon.