Cabo Ligado Weekly: 4-10 April 2022
By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-April 2022
Figures updated as of 8 April 2022. Organized political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Organized violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.
Total number of organized political violence events: 1,217
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 3,894
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,693
All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.
Situation Summary
Last week, escalating violence in Nangade district came to a head in a major clash between insurgents and security forces in Mandimba village, less than 30 km from Nangade town eastwards to Palma district. Up to three soldiers were killed in the clash. Another group of insurgents was active in the south of the district at the start of the week.
The attack on the military outpost at Mandimba occurred on 5 April. Insurgents attacked the village, empty of civilians, at approximately 5 pm. A source reports that the soldiers called for backup, suggesting they were surprised, but another source familiar with the local force claims they had intelligence that insurgents were in the area and instead there was a breakdown in communications between units. Two military personnel were reportedly killed in the clash, and five others were wounded and sent to the hospital, one of whom later died.
The previous day, Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS) ambushed a group of insurgents, thought to number six, in Chianga village. Chianga lies approximately 8 km south of Nangade town. Later that day what was thought locally to be the same group killed one person in Nambedo area, in Ntamba Administrative Post, further south. The group reportedly passed through Nambedo village itself, as military patrols continued their pursuit.
The Mandimba attack in particular challenges the claim made by Mozambican defense minister, Cristóvão Artur Chume, in an interview with Chatham House, published on Wednesday 6 April, that security forces had brought “stability” to Nangade (see Weekly Focus). Mozambican reinforcements arrived in the district on 29 March in the hope of finally eliminating the insurgent group that has been carrying out attacks in Nangade on an almost weekly basis since their arrival on 18 February. Southern African Development Community (SADC) troops from Lesotho and Tanzania have moved out from the district headquarters to reinforce Mandimba and pursue the attackers, sources have told Cabo Ligado. They have been accused in the past of failing to contain insurgent attacks. Indeed, SADC troops have been involved in just three reported clashes with insurgents in Nangade so far this year.
The security situation in Nangade worsened after insurgents were pushed out of western Palma district in late February. SADC and FDS troops had some success locating and attacking insurgent hideouts, but as the recent attack on Mandimba illustrates, insurgents retain capacity to mount attacks on certain security clusters.
In Metuge district, internally displaced persons (IDPs) have been arriving in 25 de Junho, Pulo, and Ntocota camps from Meluco and Macomia districts since March, fleeing insurgent violence. According to a source, newly arrived IDPs claim that the insurgents in these districts have been recently weakened and no longer have a base of operations. The IDP centers are reportedly overcrowded and lack basic food supplies and emergency services. Women are said to live under the constant threat of sexual violence.
Weekly Focus: Defense Minister Chume on Security Sector Reform
The UK’s Chatham House think tank gave Minister of National Defense Cristóvão Artur Chume an opportunity to reflect on developments in the 12 months since the fall of Palma, and his vision for security sector reform. The short interview was an opportunity to reach an influential anglophone audience in the wake of the minister’s recent trip to the UK for discussions on security cooperation.
Chume’s assessment that Cabo Delgado province is “calm, more stable compared to the same time last year” is not wrong. In March 2021, the Defence and Security Forces (FDS) were on the back foot, with state control of the province at its most vulnerable. The insurgents’ March assault on Palma coincided with the end of the contract with Dyck Advisory Group, and presaged three months of clashes around the town before the deployment of Rwandan forces in July. Chume acknowledges Rwanda for its “very positive impact” in Palma and surrounding areas. The later deployment of SADC forces in Macomia, Muidumbe, and Nangade districts he said has “brought stability to all areas of operation.” He also spoke of “a positive response in terms of return” in the same three districts.
His remarks on Nangade are surprising. Former District Administrator Dinis Mitande noted recently in a media interview that attacks in Nangade are a relatively recent development, with the district headquarters itself now under threat. The same district headquarters is overwhelmed with displaced people from across the district. The concentration of attacks in Nangade in particular speaks to a shift in the insurgency’s approach, necessitated by the successes of the Rwandan troops in particular. But it also speaks to the lack of success on the part of SADC intervention forces stationed there in responding to the adaptation of the insurgency.
The other focus of his interview was security sector reform, referring to the historical lack of investment in the FDS, with consequences for the quality of recruits, the training they receive, and their equipment. “Above all,” he said “we want armed forces that instill confidence in the population.” Popular distrust of the security services has perhaps worsened during the conflict. The arrival of Rwandan forces has given people in Nangade a benchmark against which they can measure the FDS in terms of professionalism and discipline. The FDS is not faring well in that comparison, with its actions regularly being appealed to Rwandan forces. Chume hinted at this lack of Mozambican ownership in security reform, telling Chatham House that foreign powers have given Mozambique “a strong sense of what we need.” Yet he did note that developing a Mozambican doctrine to govern the fight against “terror” was now a priority. With troops from the SADC and the European Union providing training, alongside others with security interests such as the UK and the US, Mozambique does not lack sources of advice.
Alongside the reform of the FDS, and the armed forces in particular, Chume also discussed how to deal with the militias that are often in the front line defending communities in Cabo Delgado. Preferring the term “local forces,” he promised statutory regulations to bring them under state control. These forces are a potential threat to the state if the FDS cannot reach the point where they “instill confidence in the population.”
Government Response
Minister Chume’s concerns about capacity across the FDS were more forcefully expressed by President Filipe Nyusi at a graduation ceremony at the Academy of Police Sciences. Nyusi said with disappointment that it makes no sense that after four years of conflict and several people arrested for terrorism-related crimes, not enough information has been produced so far to understand the problem of “terrorism.” "We have captured 50, 100 people linked to terrorism and the answer they always give us is 'they don't say anything,'" Nyusi lamented, challenging the defense and security forces to improve investigation techniques. But it is not only on the investigation front that Mozambique has weakness in its response to “terrorism.” In 2021, the US included Mozambique in a list of terrorist safe havens, where “terrorists” have the ability to organize, plan, recruit, operate, and communicate with relative ease due to the country's inability to respond to the problem. Likewise, Mozambique's justice minister acknowledged that the country lacks the capacity to investigate and prosecute terrorism-related cases.
In the first week of April, the town of Mocímboa da Praia remained empty, abandoned, and with signs of destruction, according to a report from Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), which made a one-day visit to the district of Mocímboa da Praia on 2 April to provide medical services to the relatively few people there. According to MSF, some civil servants regularly visit the village as part of the preparations for the return of the displaced population and resumption of state services.
Some of those assisted by MSF had been held captive by the insurgents, and after their release were transferred by the security forces to villages in Mocímboa da Praia, including Nanili, which is located in the western part of the district, near the border with Mueda. Besides Nanili, Diaca, Mitope, and Namandaia are other more populous/inhabited villages in Mocímboa da Praia district.
In another effort to strengthen capacity and provide medical services to the population affected by the conflict in Cabo Delgado, Cuba is considering sending doctors to Mozambique, said Pavel Hernández, outgoing ambassador of Cuba to Mozambique.
According to sources in Palma, meetings are being held between TotalEnergies representatives, government officials and the communities affected by the resettlement process. On the table are discussions about the resumption of compensation payments to the affected population. The payment of compensation was suspended after the attack on Palma on 24 March 2021. At the meetings, people have asked the government to speed up the issuing of identity cards for those who lost them, so as not to create delays when the payment of compensation resumes.
The Portuguese energy company Galp, which is part of the Area 4 consortium in the Rovuma basin, said it hopes to start building its onshore plant in 2024. The improvement in the security situation was not enough to convince Galp to resume its operations earlier. Galp's CEO, Andy Brown, said that the security guarantee and the return to normal life are crucial for the resumption of the onshore project's building. Galp has a 10% stake in the Rovuma liquefied natural gas (LNG) consortium led by ExxonMobil.
A Lusa News Agency report highlights the difficulties and dilemmas that women victims of sexual violence rescued from insurgent captivity face in their social integration. A traumatized 28-year-old woman who lived for about two years in one of the insurgent bases in the bush of Mocímboa da Praia before she managed to escape in March of this year, recounts that she was forced to marry an insurgent and was a victim of several sexual assaults. The woman describes that "there the men have no mercy, you are everyone's woman, I went through this. If you refuse, they beat you." As a result of the numerous sexual assaults, she now has a six-month-old son. She now wants to join her family in Montepuez, but does not know how she will tell her husband about her new child. The woman said hunger was severe and that they lived on cornmeal. As a result of the conditions in the insurgent bases, she lost a daughter who had been kidnapped along with her.
Both the International Organization for Migration and the United Nations Refugee Agency, the UNHCR, have reported increased numbers of displaced, fleeing or fearing attack. According to the UNHCR, these people arrive after "witnessing and suffering atrocities, including killings and the decapitation and dismemberment of bodies, sexual violence, kidnappings, forced recruitment by armed groups, and torture.”
In response to ongoing insecurity around villages north of the district capital of Macomia, South African troops based in the town have relocated several kilometers north to a site between the villages of Quinto Congresso and Nova Zambezia. Both villages have suffered attacks in recent months. The move is seemingly intended to put pressure on insurgents operating in those areas. Other reports suggest foreign forces, possibly Rwandans, have been deployed around the coastal towns of Quiterajo and Mucojo in Macomia district. This suggests that a coordinated squeeze on insurgents still operating in this district is likely to unfold as the rains come to an end and operational options improve. Much will also depend on the support of air assets from the FDS who will be able to support operations on the ground in pursuit of still relatively mobile insurgent groups.
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