Cabo Ligado Weekly: 4-10 July 2022

July 12, 2022 Cabo Ligado

Total number of organized political violence events: 1,340
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,115
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,780

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Insurgents continued to raid soft targets last week, mostly in Meluco, but the pace of attacks has slowed markedly, possibly as groups burn through supplies that have sustained their offensive since the first attack in Ancuabe on 5 June.

The biggest attack last week saw insurgents assault a security forces position at Pundanhar in Palma district with mortars, which is notable as insurgents have spent recent weeks seemingly trying to avoid direct confrontations with the military. Pundanhar had previously been cleared of insurgents by the Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) in February this year.

According to a security consultant, the assault was launched on a position of the Mozambican police force’s Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) in the early hours of 9 July, surprising the officers, forcing them to retreat and leave behind weapons and equipment. The size of the attacking force is not known, but one security source claims as many as 80-100 members of the UIR fled. Online news service Pinnacle News reported that soldiers arriving in Palma town from Pundanhar claimed to have been overwhelmed by superior forces following intense clashes. Islamic State (IS) went on to claim the attack, saying through its social media channels on 11 July that it had seized weapons and burned the “barracks” after soldiers fled. IS also published photos of weapons, ammunition, explosives, and other miscellaneous equipment allegedly captured at Pundanhar.

Insurgents successfully launched a similar raid on an FDS position in Mandimba, Nangade, last week, seizing a significant haul of weapons, ammunition, and equipment. These attacks may reflect a strategic shift in the insurgents’ operations as they refocus on military and police targets to restock with materiel — and may have contributed to their ability to undertake the bigger raid on positions in Pundanhar, which may be the biggest such attack since Rwandan and Southern African Development Community (SADC) troops arrived in Mozambique last year.

Approximately 50 km to the south, insurgents clashed the next day with security forces at an FDS base in Chitolo, less than 40 km from Mocímboa da Praia town. Details are still emerging and it is unclear who initiated the engagement. According to a provisional report from a security consultant, insurgents attacked the village in the morning, but were forced to withdraw once security forces arrived at the scene. A security source also told Cabo Ligado that there had been a firefight at Chitolo.

Two attacks on villages in Meluco have been confirmed. On 8 July, Mitepo, approximately 16 km from Meluco district headquarters, was raided and several houses were destroyed. IS posted a statement on social media, claiming to have beheaded two people and set fire to 15 homes and a Christian school in the village. The NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) detected a fire over Mitepo on 8 July.

NASA FIRMS also detected a fire over the village of Nsemuco, just over 10 km from Meluco district headquarters on 10 July. A security consultant reported that insurgents attacked the village that day, burning houses and looting goods. The next day, IS acknowledged attacking the village and claimed to have beheaded a civilian, burned down houses, and set fire to a government building. A local source heard that houses were burned and an unidentified body had been found.

Following an intense period of violence in Ancuabe in June, the district has become more settled, though there was one confirmed attack on the village of Ngura, about 25 km northeast of Ancuabe district headquarters. According to a local source, insurgents attacked between 8 and 10 am on 9 July. IS claimed to have beheaded two civilians and burned down houses and a church in the attack. NASA FIRMS detected fires over the village that day.

Despite this attack, a source in the district said that the situation in Ancuabe is beginning to normalize due to an increased military presence which is facilitating the transportation of displaced people back to their homes. About 300 military personnel are said to be currently stationed in Silva Macua, an important junction 20 km south of Ancuabe town, on the road between Pemba and Montepuez.

Weekly Focus: The Ongoing Battle for Macomia

The establishment of a new military base north of Macomia town during the course of June and early July by an expanded South African National Defence Force (SANDF) contingent from SADC’s Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) is intended to improve security amid ongoing instability in large swaths of the district. The new contingent, known as Combat Force Alpha, is made up of several elements from infantry, parachute battalions, special forces, artillery, and the air force. It is commanded by SAMIM’s only female commander, Lt. Col. Erica Cambinda. Over 600 SANDF soldiers will operate from the base. Eighty armored vehicles have been shipped to Pemba, most of which are deployed to Macomia.

Macomia has been and remains one of the hardest hit districts by the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, with large numbers displaced and widespread destruction of an albeit limited infrastructure. The main town of Macomia was briefly occupied in May 2020 after a major assault by over 100 armed insurgents, but despite regaining control of the town only days later, insurgent attacks and clashes, especially to the north and coastal areas, have remained a perennial feature and the FDS have struggled to maintain a controlling presence in the district. The Dyck Advisory Group (DAG) provided air support between April 2020 and March 2021, but was hampered by supply and logistical constraints, having to fly for the most part from Pemba. The FDS maintained a presence in a number of villages, but these too often became targets for insurgent attacks.

SAMIM was given Macomia as one of its areas of responsibility when it deployed on 15 July 2021. A relatively small force was stretched over a wide territory, and also had to face the reality of a major part of the insurgent fighting force now in their operational zone having relocated from Mocímboa da Praia.

Since SAMIM and Rwandan forces joined the fray a year ago, attacks and clashes have been reported every month and in some locations – i.e. villages in Quinto Congresso, Nkoe, Nova Zambezia – repeatedly. The coastline has also been particularly vulnerable to insurgent attacks and raids, and has also been the site of some major confrontations with security forces. In late September 2020, the town of Mucojo and surrounding areas were briefly occupied. While security forces have been able to maintain some presence in major towns and villages, they have not maintained control in surrounding areas. To shore up the Mozambican forces, the police began arming militias across the district from around August 2020. They have remained an important local resource and remain present in many affected areas.

Many attacks and clashes during this period are associated with the north-south corridor and adjoining areas along the main N380 road north of Macomia up to Chai, as well as across an east west axis from the coastal areas of Quiterajo and Mucojo to the western areas of the district bordering Meluco district. On this axis, east of Chai, lies the dense Catupa forest which has remained almost impenetrable to security forces, including offensives by SAMIM and most recently Rwandan forces that deployed in late March 2022 to northern Macomia to bolster efforts to take the fight to insurgents.

Security experts believe that there are likely to be several hundred armed insurgents, as well as hostages and camp followers, in the Catupa forest. From here they have been able to launch raids along the Macomia coastline as well as inland, across a belt of northern Macomia, but also south towards Quissanga district. Many of these fighters had relocated in the face of major security force offensives on their strongholds of Mbau in southern Mocímboa da Praia and on the multiple camps, since destroyed, adjacent to the Messalo river.

Efforts to dislodge them from Catupa, however, have not been successful. SANDF suffered its first combat fatality here in December 2021. A major offensive on this stronghold will be necessary if the backbone of the remaining insurgent fighting force is to be broken. It remains to be seen what the expanded SAMIM force will be able to do, beyond shoring up security along major transport arteries. This reflects the technical shift from peace enforcement (Scenario 6) to a peacekeeping (Scenario 5) role. But ongoing attacks confirm the security forces’ need to actively pursue remaining insurgency groups, who in many instances will actively avoid confrontation with these forces. This raises questions about SAMIM’s capacity for rapid response and hot pursuit operations, as well as its long range reconnaissance and attack capacity, the kind of work undertaken by special forces in such challenging terrain. These options – to take the fight to the insurgents – will remain constrained as long as military operations are not effectively coordinated within a wider strategy and if requisite capacity, especially in terms of air support, is not available.

Government Response

The escalating violence continues to have devastating effects on the people of Cabo Delgado. Last week, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that attacks in Ancuabe district in June affected some 6,403 households in 29 locations, and caused a new wave of displacements in the province. Most (60%) of the displaced are in internally displaced people (IDP) sites in Metuge district, 18% in Chiure, and 16% in Montepuez. IOM says conditions in the IDP centers remain critical, with a lack of shelter, food, and hygiene kits.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) made an appeal for increased humanitarian assistance on 7 June. The UNHCR reported that 36,000 people have been displaced as a result of recent attacks in Ancuabe that have led to beheadings, burning of homes, and looting of properties. According to the UNHCR, this new wave of displacements is increasing pressure on humanitarian assistance, and the displaced populations are in urgent need of food assistance, shelter, and basic services. Furthermore, insurgent incursions south of Cabo Delgado have constrained the delivery of humanitarian aid due to attacks on the main access routes used by humanitarian organizations. The return of displaced populations to the conflict zones under current conditions would be premature, according to the UNHCR.

While the UNHCR advises against the immediate return of the displaced to the areas affected by the violence, the government of Cabo Delgado is preparing logistics to transport those displaced from Ancuabe back to their homes. In his visit to Nanduli village in Ancuabe district to assess the impact of insurgent actions in the district, the Secretary of State of Cabo Delgado province, António Supeia, said that the government is “creating conditions” to return the displaced people from Ancuabe who are now in Pemba, Chiure, and Montepuez back to their communities. Supeia also said that the government is making efforts to restore security in the villages affected by insurgent attacks. While still in Ancuabe, the Secretary of State was approached by the community leaders about the creation of a Local Force in the district; Supeia responded that he was in favor of such an initiative. Local Forces are mostly composed of war veterans of the Mozambican liberation struggle and civilian volunteers who operate with their own command structures. Mozambique's Defense Minister, Cristovão Chume, has indicated that the government is willing to legalize the Local Forces.

Of the 1,800 teachers who had left their workplaces due to the insurgent attacks, 852 have returned to their jobs, according to the provincial Director of Education in Cabo Delgado, Ivaldo Quincardete, who said 52 schools have reopened and 3,800 pupils have resumed classes. In the district of Palma, 125 teachers are assigned to the two schools operating in the district.

According to Mozambique's state-owned national power utility Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM), violence in Cabo Delgado has resulted in at least 25 transformers being vandalized. As a result, 30,000 people have been without power over the past three years. The EDM's provincial Director Gildo Marques has noted that insecurity has limited the expansion of the power grid throughout the province, particularly in northern Cabo Delgado.

On the international front, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, at an event in Turkey's capital Ankara, claimed that the Al Qaeda-aligned militant group, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, has been sending money to fund IS-linked insurgent groups in Mozambique. However, in a statement issued by the Al Shabaab Somali group, it denied President Mohamud's accusations, calling them “absurd and pitifully laughable.” There is no clear evidence of a link between the Somali militant group and the insurgency in Mozambique, although there is some evidence of funds moving from IS-affiliated actors in Somalia to South Africa. Both groups are affiliated with two rival extremist movements vying for dominance, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.