Cabo Ligado Weekly: 8-14 August 2022
By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-August 2022
Figures updated as of 12 August 2022. Organized political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Organized violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.
Total number of organized political violence events: 1,382
Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 4,188
Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,818
All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.
Situation Summary
Insurgent activity across Cabo Delgado was relatively muted last week, with the exception of Muidumbe district, which saw two attacks in quick succession, beginning on 9 August. The first attack took place in the Nambayaya area of Muidumbe, where insurgents beheaded two men, according to a local source. The news website Carta de Moçambique reported that the attack specifically took place around the village of Nampanha, about 15 km from district headquarters, and that a woman is missing, presumed kidnapped, and that the insurgent group did not number more than 20 people.
The next day, insurgents attacked again, approximately 20 km to the south, burning either the village of Mapate or the adjacent village of Mandela, 4 km to the west – sources conflict as to the precise location. One local source claims that residents fled as the insurgents entered Mapate village and set fire to homes. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack, stating on social media that its forces burned dozens of houses in Mandela before returning to their positions. IS also published several pictures reportedly of the attack, featuring insurgents walking through the village burning thatched huts. News agency Lusa reported that one local militia member was shot in the leg but survived.
Southeastern Muidumbe district is isolated with a limited security presence currently. In July 2021, the area around the villages of Mandela and Nampanha saw clashes between insurgents and Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) and Mozambican Defense and Security Forces (FDS), as well as attacks on civilians and property in the area.
There was also a reported kidnapping of at least six people from their fields in the area of Mungano village in Nangade district, approximately 15 km from district headquarters. No further details of the incident have been reported so far.
According to a source working in security in Cabo Delgado, there is an established insurgent presence in the southeast of Nangade around the Nkonga forest and south of Pundanhar and Olumbe in Palma district. These areas are not currently well protected by security forces, even in spite of recent attacks, and will likely need to be reinforced if further attacks are to be prevented.
One insurgent was captured during the week in Ancuabe, taken when scavenging for cassava in fields, reports MediaFax. According to the report, the man is originally from Ancuabe and was involved in attacks on Micaia and Mihecane villages. He was driven to the fields by thirst and hunger, according to the report. An unconfirmed source tells Cabo Ligado that the group the man was attached to had planned to attack the district headquarters, but that when their commander read the Quran prior to the attack, “he saw only darkness”, and called it off.
The lack of detail in the published story, such as the location of his capture, and the colorful detail circulating locally cast doubt on the incident, though there have been numerous incidents of fighters fleeing poor conditions. While conditions are undoubtedly poor in the bush, the insurgency has survived numerous such defections and captures in the past. Reports such as this suggest that conditions can vary considerably between insurgent groups, even those operating in the same district.
Although the frequency of insurgent attacks has declined in recent weeks, the fear of attacks remains high. A sighting of suspected insurgents near the secondary school of the Chitunda neighborhood of Nangade caused some alarm as insurgents had attacked the area only three weeks before on 26 July. Cabo Ligado also received a report that local militia in Mueda have enforced strict hairstyle codes on residents and banned the wearing of shorts outside in order to distinguish the civilian population from insurgents.
Weekly Focus: IS Video Statement
IS social media channels released an Amaq News Agency branded video from the insurgents on 9 August. Titled “Islamic State Fighters Send a Message to the Government and Army of Mozambique and their Christian Subjects,” the video was short at just one minute and 14 seconds, of poor quality, and in Arabic language.
The clip featured one speaker, with seven others, and was hurriedly shot. Flames and smoke rose from behind the group, one of whom held an IS flag aloft, during what seemed to be an attack on a village. Five had their faces fully covered, the faces of the remaining two were blurred in the video. One joined the clip late, rushing in to squat down in front of the speaker. Another was only seen in the final second of the clip. The clip’s message was simple. The speaker makes a declaration in Arabic addressed to President Filipe Nyusi and his government that the fight in Mozambique will continue as part of IS’s global struggle to establish an Islamic state
Shaky and blurred, consisting of one continuous shot made on a mobile phone, the clip was of poor quality by IS standards. Guidelines known to have been used in the past by the group stated that “any bad filming using one camera will be rejected.” Video skills are poor amongst the insurgents in Cabo Delgado. When part of IS Central African Province (ISCAP), very little footage from Mozambique made it to set piece propaganda clips, such as ISCAP’s pledge of allegiance to the new IS leader in April this year.
The quality seems especially poor when compared to the releases of other IS affiliates’ videos in recent months. On 30 July, IS Somalia released a 25 minute video, “Upon the Path of the Conquerors,” targeting Muslims in Ethiopia. Mostly in Amharic, it blended effective graphics, stock footage, and footage of recruits to encourage Ethiopian Muslims to join IS. IS West Africa Province’s “The Empowerment Generation,” released in January 2022, was similarly sophisticated.
The choice of Arabic language for the clip tells us that the audience is both regional, and more widely international. Arabic is widely understood in East Africa, if only at a basic level, through its use in Islamic religious schools. Beyond East Africa, it speaks to other affiliates and their followers, particularly in Africa. Nevertheless, a handwritten Portuguese translation was also produced, photographed, and circulated on social media.
Amaq News Agency’s reasoning in putting out such a poorly produced clip is not known. It is the first direct message from the field in Cabo Delgado since 2020, and similar in quality and content to a March 2020 statement filmed outside the Quissanga district administrator’s office. Possibly the only clip from the field in Portuguese, it was similar to the most recent clip in both quality and content, calling for the IS flag to take the place of that of Frelimo. Perhaps the most recent clip just indicates that affiliation with IS, enthusiastically demonstrated in 2020, has brought little material change to a bloody and continuing insurgency.
Government Response
The week was marked by narratives of external interference, reconstruction, and continued hardship. During the opening ceremony of the National Youth Conference last Monday in Maputo, President Filipe Nyusi once again turned the focus of the conflict outward, saying that “terrorism” in Cabo Delgado is a "new form of colonialism" funded by "evil forces" manipulating the minds of young people in order to plunder natural resources and act against "their own homeland." The president said his government is aware of the challenges faced by young people due to limited employment opportunities but added that these should not be an encouragement for them to engage in "illicit or terrorist acts." Nyusi continues to push the narrative that the external factors are fueling the conflict.
President Nyusi is likely to be less forthright when attending the Southern African Development Community (SADC) 42nd Summit in Kinshasa on 17-18 August. He will be accompanied to the meeting by General Commander of the Police, Bernardino Rafael, and Lieutenant General Bertolino Capitine, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM).
Government leaders have been putting a positive spin on the state of affairs in Cabo Delgado, presenting a province that is moving back to normality. Minister of Health, Armindo Tiago, said there is 820 million meticais ($12.8 million) available for re-establishing and building new health units in the districts of Palma, Mocímboa da Praia, and Macomia, in Cabo Delgado province, MediaFax reported. However, in order for the work to start, the minister said that security must first be restored in the region. Out of the budgeted amount, 120 million meticais ($1.9 million) will be allocated to Palma, where the local health center will be revamped to become a hospital, and 350 million meticais ($5.5 million) for Mocímboa da Praia, and also 350 million meticais ($5.5 million) for Macomia, intended for the construction of a new hospital in each of the districts.
On a similar note, Cabo Delgado province’s Director for Industry and Commerce, Ossifo Magaia, announced last week the re-opening of 110 industrial enterprises and 371 commercial establishments in the province. No detail was given on the scale or location of the enterprises, or how the data may have been gathered.
Efforts to repopulate Mocímboa da Praia town, with the assistance of the RDF continue. On 13 August, Mocímboa da Praia received 437 internally displaced persons from Quitunda in Palma district. One of the displaced people said she and her children "lived in hardships without basic needs in the camp."
Progress has also been reported in Quissanga by the independent Integrity Magazine. It reports that the district’s police headquarters has re-opened and basic services such as water supply, health centers, and public transport are being reinstated. The renovated police headquarters has been operating since April. Sources told Integrity Magazine that around 99,075 households had returned to Quissanga and that at least five schools were already in operation.
Less positively, the World Food Program (WFP) has said that if funding for its northern Mozambique operations is not received “in a timely manner, a complete disruption of operations is expected in January 2023.” The agency’s July update on Mozambique noted that it provided food assistance to 335,640 people in northern Mozambique during that month, while anticipating that it will assist 944,480 people in the August/September cycle. The agency has faced a persistent funding shortfall. In the past, it has had to cut rations in half in order to meet basic needs. In order to continue meeting needs in the face of a funding deficit, it will be adapting its targeting to prioritize vulnerability over displacement. Japan has donated $3.9 million for food support in Mozambique, to be implemented through the WFP. The aid will support those affected by drought in the south, and displaced communities in Cabo Delgado.
Difficulty in accessing food in the camps has become a major complaint by groups of displaced people in different locations. According to local sources, children among the displaced are showing signs of malnutrition. The Governor of Nampula province, Manuel Rodrigues, said that displaced people are welcome to stay, telling them that “this land is also yours,” but despite Rodrigues' willingness to accommodate those who fled the northern province, some people want to return to their land because having access to food in the camps "has become a serious problem," a former fisherman told DW, adding that "the government promises, but fails to deliver." Other displaced people said they would prefer to stay in Nampula where they “don’t hear the sound of the guns.” In Chimoio, Manica province, displaced people have also complained about lack of basic supplies such as flour, oil, salt, soap, and sugar, and have asked authorities to support them with employment opportunities and land where they could grow their own produce.
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