• Total number of organized political violence events: 1,242

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized political violence: 3,990

• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence targeting civilians: 1,705

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Situation Summary

After a flurry of violent activity in the previous two weeks, insurgents have once again withdrawn to their bases in the forests, appearing occasionally in search of food. Multiple incidents of raids for food were reported last week — and the insurgents appear to be releasing hostages to reduce the number of mouths they have to feed, though some hostages still serve a purpose in helping secure food supplies.

On 10 May, insurgents raided the village of Nova Familia in Nangade district, stealing bags of dry cassava and other foodstuffs with no reported civilian casualties, according to one security consultant report. Although this report has not yet been corroborated, a local source reports that insurgents do not currently seem to be interested in killing and are only launching attacks to seize food to survive. The source speculates that many insurgents are looking to return to their villages and would surrender if there were an amnesty and they did not fear reprisals.

Two further incidents have since been reported, which fall outside the date range for this report, but which indicate further hostage releases, and hunger as a dominant issue. The incidents will be covered in next week's edition of this report.

Further accounts have emerged of the raid on Olumbe village in Palma on 6 May, which also saw foodstuffs targeted. Sources originally reported that 20 insurgents and three Defense and Security Forces (FDS) members were killed in the ensuing clash, but other sources have dismissed the claim that there were any casualties. FDS sources, who would have an interest in claiming credit for the killing of 20 insurgents, have not commented on the incident, adding to doubts over the initial version of the incident. 

Security forces are mobilizing to take advantage of the insurgents’ weakness. A group of 12 insurgents was arrested on 13 May, trying to cross the Rovuma river in a canoe, according to a local source. They were arrested on arrival in Tanzania and returned to Mueda over the Unity Bridge. According to the same source, Tanzanian troops arrested a further 17 insurgents on 16 May. This will be welcome news in Nangade, where the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) troops from Lesotho and Tanzania have come under persistent criticism for not pro-actively pursuing the insurgents. The point was most recently made by SAMIM Force Commander, Major General Xolani Mankanyi, when visiting Nangade in early May.  

Operations continue in Macomia district. According to Cabo Ligado sources, approximately 350 Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) members were deployed from 31 March to the Catupa Forest Reserve area, a 250 square kilometer area east of Chai in Macomia. The deployment has been confirmed by Rwanda’s defense ministry. Sources told Cabo Ligado in early April of a deployment between Mucojo and Quiterajo towns. In mid-April, sources spoke of daily patrols by Rwandan forces around Chai, Quiterajo, and Mucojo as well as a nighttime curfew in Macomia town. 

Sources say the deployment came at the request of the Mozambican authorities and is part of a wider move for Rwandan forces to bolster security operations outside their Areas of Responsibility (AOR). SAMIM forces, we are informed, are not part of the operation, although this falls within their AOR, though the Rwandan authorities describe them as joint operations.

The Catupa area presents very difficult terrain for counterinsurgency operations, with dense forest and multiple steep ravines and gullies. Fierce clashes between insurgents and “allied forces” in the forest were reported on 28 April. Another security source reported clashes on 27 April, with unconfirmed reports of RDF fatalities. Whatever the truth, over six weeks into this offensive, there is a sense that the RDF have found this operation particularly challenging and they have not been able to make the kind of quick gains experienced elsewhere in previous months. Rwanda’s defense ministry has not made any claims to success against the insurgents yet, though attributes to the operations the return of displaced people in the area to Awasse, Diaca, and Mocímboa da Praia.  

Weekly Focus: Insurgents and Victims Alike Suffer Hunger 

Islamic State’s designation of Cabo Delgado as “Mozambique Province” on 9 May suggested an effort to portray a fighting group that is on the front foot. But armies march on their stomachs, recent incidents suggest the insurgents’ stomachs are empty. The insurgency has always preyed on the population for supplies. This was sustainable when it controlled significant territory, and had supply chains into urban areas in Cabo Delgado, and across the border into Tanzania. With operations severely disrupted, particularly by the Rwandan forces, and minimal return of displaced people, supply chains are broken, while still empty villages have little to loot.

The first effect of this is that long-term captives continue to be released. On 7 May, three men and two women arrived in Nangade town, claiming to have been released by the insurgents. Originally captured near the town in September 2020, they said they had passed through bases in Palma, Muidumbe, Macomia, and Nangade districts. According to one of those released, the purpose was to leave a trusted core of fighters, removing those likely to flee and betray the group. These are not first releases of course. Up to 200 captives were released in March across Macomia, Muidumbe, and Mocímboa da Praia districts, many hungry.

The Nangade arrivals spoke of insurgents being reduced to stealing crops directly from the field, a practice also noted by a Cabo Ligado source in the district. They speak of insurgents leaving a message with people they encountered two weeks ago, saying “now we're hungry, we don't have any support and we can't go back.” Another, who has been observing insurgent activity in the district for years, noted that they are currently not out to kill, but that “their incursions are for food to survive.”

Not all hostages have been released though. Sources with knowledge of the attack on Olumbe administrative post say that it was primarily a food raid, with women and children in the party carrying off what food they could bear. Areas such as Olumbe, where there has been limited return will continue to be a target for food raids, given the small amounts of food aid they attract. News of attacks such as that at Olumbe is likely to make people think twice about returning, particularly given its location in relatively secure Palma district. The World Food Programme (WFP), according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net), is warning of a “potential pipeline break” in June due to lack of funds, threatening the thin rations currently available in the province. 

As for Islamic State, their designation of “Mozambique Province,” at a time it was known the insurgency was under great stress, suggests that they see these lean days as being temporary. Apparent resistance in Catupa suggests some resilience. Testimony from Nangade this week indicates that releases are tactical, as they were in Macomia in March, even if driven by difficult circumstances. 

Government Response

General Commander Bernardino Rafael, Mozambique’s chief of police, paid a visit last week to Cabo Delgado province, where he gave his view on the state of the ongoing counterinsurgency efforts of the FDS. 

At a meeting with Rwandan forces in Chai in Macomia district on 14 May, Rafael said that the pro-government forces are close to achieving their objectives in the northern operational theater, claiming that operations have been “70%” executed. Without mentioning the recent incursions by insurgents into Palma, Macomia, and Nangade, Rafael also claimed that at least 54 insurgents have been killed and four captured in the last two months. He further disclosed that more than 195 civilians, mostly women and children, have escaped from the custody of insurgents. 

At the same event, he was confronted with appeals from displaced people trapped in the bush due to insecurity. They asked for the conditions to be created for a safe return to their areas of origin and talked about the difficult situation in the bush. The police chief did not promise an immediate solution, stating only that he would take the message to the government and its partners. This appeal provides a counterbalance to the more positive spin presented by Rwanda’s defense ministry in a statement on the same event, which claimed movement of displaced people out of Chai, and return of others to the town. 

The previous day, Rafael held a meeting with local residents in Nanga A neighborhood in Macomia town. According to a Cabo Ligado source, he called on the insurgents to lay down their weapons and surrender to the authorities. He also promised amnesty and gave guarantees that they will receive humane treatment by the FDS, a claim also reported by pro-government website Notícias de Defesa. However, he also raised his suspicions that town residents are in touch with the insurgents, and urged his listeners to “tell their children to return” before they meet the fate of their counterparts in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia. Meanwhile, at the meeting, the population complained of misconduct and inhumane acts committed by members of the Mozambican police force's Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR). The locals accused the UIR of committing acts of physical aggression and extortion and called for their withdrawal from the main town of Macomia. Relations between the locals and the FDS remain poor, and if they continue, this could constitute a major barrier to both the process of social reintegration of communities, and to collaboration between police and community.

Rafael's trip came days after the National Defense and Security Council meeting, led by President Filipe Nyusi. The meeting, held on 11 May in Maputo, called for the intensification of fighting to eradicate the insurgency in the northern operational theater and urged the local authorities to move forward with the reintegration of people returning to their areas of origin.

Mozambique's Foreign Minister Veronica Macamo traveled to Cabo Delgado between 9 and 11 May with a delegation of Mozambique's ambassadors abroad to show solidarity with the people affected by the conflict. Macamo donated money and expressed her gratitude to the SAMIM and Rwandan forces for supporting the government of Mozambique in its counterinsurgency efforts. Frelimo Secretary-General Roque Silva was also in Mocímboa da Praia on 9 May to launch a program to rehabilitate damaged party infrastructure. Besides Mocímboa da Praia, Frelimo plans to rehabilitate the headquarters of its district committees in Palma, Muidumbe, and Quissanga. 

In Niassa, authorities reported that all the people who had been displaced from the insurgent attacks in Niassa have now returned to their home villages. According to the Secretary of State of Niassa province, Dinis Vilanculos, the process of transferring a total of 3,700 displaced people to their areas of origin ended last week. The insurgent attacks took place in November and December and had their epicenter in Mecula district. Throughout 2022, there have been several incidents of a criminal nature, and little is known about their connection to the insurgency in Cabo Delgado. 

SAMIM Force Commander, Major General Xolani Mankayi, visited SAMIM's areas of operation in Cabo Delgado. Mankayi visited the districts of Mueda, Macomia, Nangade, and Pemba to assess SAMIM's work and to provide support to the conflict-affected populations. In Macomia, the Commander held meetings with Rwandan Security Forces’ Joint Task Force Commander, Major General Innocent Kabandana, and the commander of the land forces of Mozambique, Major General Tiago Nampele. Rwandan troops have been conducting joint operations in Macomia along with SAMIM troops since March 2022. Mankayi was also in Nangade where he proceeded with delivering donations to displaced populations. In Mueda, the Commander said that displaced people had returned to almost all the villages in Mueda district that had been attacked by insurgents.

Despite these advances, Portugal’s Foreign Affairs Minister, João Gomes Cravinho, said on 11 May that instability in Cabo Delgado remained a major concern and that the province was still not under control. Cravinho was speaking in Marrakech, Morocco at a meeting of foreign ministers of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. This was the first time for the Global Coalition to meet in an African country. Mozambique is not a member. The only members in East or Southern Africa are Kenya and Democratic Republic of Congo.

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