Cabo Ligado Update: 13 - 26 January 2025

Jan 29

Written By Cabo Ligado

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By the numbers

Data highlights in Cabo Delgado province (13 - 26 January 2025)

At least 6 political violence events (2,004 in total since 1 October 2017)
At least 2 reported fatalities from political violence (5,907 since 1 October 2017)
At least 2 reported civilian fatalities (2,451 since 1 October 2017)

Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) remains active in northwest Cabo Delgado, sourcing supplies through looting villages. A number of ISM actions have taken place close to state forces’ positions, including those of the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF), which has not responded. In the south of the province, disorder has subsided to some extent. In Chiúre district, residents forced Mozambican military out of their town, expressing mistrust in their capacity to provide protection. ISM maintains a presence in coastal Macomia despite RDF patrols. The RDF is showing restraint in recent months, which is likely to continue amid concerns over its role in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Situation Summary

The past two weeks saw insurgent activity across Cabo Delgado, with attacks, abductions, and movements reported in several districts, mainly north of the Messalo river. These events have not prompted a response from state forces stationed in the area. In the south of the province, post-election disorder continues, though at reduced levels.

State forces fail to respond to ISM actions

Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) insurgents attacked the village of Pundanhar in Palma on the night of 26 January, burning several homes and looting goods and food. A stray bullet injured one civilian, but there were no reported fatalities. State forces did not respond to the attack, even though the RDF operates a base at Pundanhar, and the Local Force is also present in the area. However, on the Tanzanian side of the border the following day, the Tanzania People’s Defence Force increased patrols and checked credentials of all travelers heading to Mtwara town from border areas. This marks ISM’s first action in Pundanhar since June, when insurgents beheaded a man they encountered in farmland.

Insurgents appeared in the village of Nanquidunga, just south of Mocímboa da Praia town, on 22 January, where they bought food before disappearing. The following day, in the west of Mocímboa da Praia district, insurgents abducted seven people, possibly children, in Mumo village on the N380 highway, according to local sources. One source claimed that one of the captives was killed. Three of the hostages were later released. As in Pundanhar, the incident took place close to a military position, thought to be RDF, less than 6 kilometers west of Mumo. Again, there was no military response.

In Muidumbe district further south on the N380, on 19 January two trucks, one carrying food aid and the other mosquito nets, were attacked on the road north of Chitunda. Chitunda is approximately 15 km south of an RDF base at Chinda. The attack prompted the reintroduction of military escorts for traffic between Macomia and Awasse. Further south on the N380, ISM remains present around the village of Miangelwa on the Messalo river, despite the presence of an RDF base to the south in Macomia district and a Defence Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) base in nearby Xitaxi to the west. A local source reported that insurgents entered the village on 16 January, kidnapping three and looting goods. Islamic State claimed that ISM had beheaded one person there on 18 January in the village.

Further south, groups of insurgents have been reported moving westward into Meluco district from Macomia, suggesting that at least some elements of ISM are regrouping. On 17 January, around 50 insurgents were seen crossing the N380 westward toward Meluco district around Litandacua village in Macomia district. Another insurgent group was observed crossing at around the same spot on 23 January. In Meluco district, insurgents passed through Iba village on 18 January. Three days later, on 21 January, almost 40 insurgents passed through Minhanha, heading westward, but their movements have not been reported since.

Chiúre villagers expel military, while disorder in the south subsides

In the village of Mazeze in Chiúre district, relations between the local population and security forces deteriorated to the point that an angry mob armed with machetes and rocks confronted soldiers on 6 January, forcing the army and the Local Force to withdraw from the area, according to ZumboFM. The forces had been deployed in the area in early December, in response to a spate of attacks in November.

On the N1 highway to the provincial capital, Pemba, criminals have taken advantage of post-election unrest to rob vehicles. On 14 January, security forces detained two men from Impiri in Metuge accused of extorting drivers during days of protests organized by presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane. Carta de Moçambique reported on 20 January that a group of masked men armed with machetes had set up roadblocks on the N1 between Silva Macua and Pemba at night and were stealing phones and money from passersby.

Focus: RDF treads lightly in Cabo Delgado

Sources in Macomia describe an increasingly complex environment for displaced civilians beginning to return to the coast. In the area, the RDF has operated alongside FADM since August, but ISM also maintains a low-key presence. The RDF’s intense air operations in July and August have not been repeated, with both FADM and the RDF maintaining a lighter presence through patrols. This restraint may continue, given concerns about the RDF’s role in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo.

On 16 January, the permanent secretary of Macomia district, Alberto Cristóvão, told Zumbo FM that while people are returning to the coast, they are limited to those involved in fishing, and that conditions are not yet conducive to broader return. Cristóvão’s description of the situation as “stable” is not unfounded. ACLED data show just two events in Mucojo and Quiterajo Administrative Posts this year. However, this stability belies a continuing ISM presence. Two sources have told Cabo Ligado of insurgents visiting Pangane, just 5 km north of Mucojo town, at different times in January. One mentions that they have used such visits to preach, cook, and refresh themselves, and purchase supplies from locals who have returned. The same source also refers to fishers returning with their families, contradicting Cristóvão. A real risk of insurgents remaining in the community presents itself as larger groups of people return.

RDF and FADM continue to patrol the area, according to sources, but are not engaging with ISM. It is not just on the coast where state forces seem to be holding back. To the west on the N380, ISM also appears to have some freedom of movement, despite RDF and FADM combat outposts in Chai Administrative Post in Macomia, near Xitaxi in Muidumbe district, at Chinda in Mocímboa da Praia district, and at Pundanhar in Palma.

The risk of causing civilian casualties during a volatile election period may have constrained RDF operations once the official campaign period began in August. Constraints on Mozambique operations may continue as a result of the RDF’s involvement in the March 23 Movement’s (M23) attack on Goma in the DRC. Rwanda’s use of military power in foreign relations is varied and well-documented, and its contribution to bilateral and multilateral peacekeeping missions has bolstered its reputation. Events in the DRC and increasing international condemnation of Rwanda’s role in the country threaten this reputation. Consequently, RDF’s less aggressive posture in Mozambique will likely be maintained.

Round Up

US suspends all aid spending in Mozambique

US President Donald Trump has issued an executive order suspending foreign aid worldwide for 90 days, pending a review of the alignment of funded initiatives with American interests. The US government allocated just over $500 million in foreign assistance to Mozambique last year. Much of this aid budget is spent in Cabo Delgado, supporting those affected by the insurgency. In 2024, the US funded around 60% of the United Nations Humanitarian Response Plan.

Chapo replaces police chief

President Daniel Chapo has dismissed Bernardino Rafael, the commander of the Police of the Republic of Mozambique, and replaced him with Joaquim Adriano Sive. Rafael had held the post since 2017. New Interior Minister Paulo Chachine had called for the police to regain the public's confidence, saying, “the population cannot be afraid of us; the citizen cannot be afraid of us.” Sive previously served as commander of the police in Sofala province.

Chapo is also set to appoint a new chief of the Intelligence and Security Service, after the last director, Bernardo Lidimba, died in a car accident in November. The chief of the general staff of the Mozambican armed forces is often replaced every three to five years, and Admiral Joaquim Mangrasse has served for more than three years. However, it seems unlikely that Chapo will imminently make a new appointment as there is less political pressure on the army, compared to the police.

President Chapo meets TotalEnergies’ Pouyanné in Maputo

President Daniel Chapo met with TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné in Maputo on 27 January. According to Chapo’s office, the two discussed the liquefied natural gas project in Cabo Delgado. TotalEnergies had hoped that work on the project, stalled since 2021, would resume in 2024, allowing for production to begin in 2029. However, the company admitted on 22 January that this schedule could not be met.

Venâncio Mondlane issues his 'first presidential decree’
Venâncio Mondlane, former Mozambican presidential candidate and self-proclaimed president of Mozambique, issued a document on 17 January titled 'First Presidential Decree,' which was published in his newspaper, Jornal do Povo. The document contains 30 measures due to be put into force on 20 January 2025. Mondlane said that if the government does not implement the measures in the document, it would be a direct affront to the people.

However, the Mozambican Attorney General's Office released a statement on 27 January saying Mondlane’s decree is illegal as the newspaper is not legally registered and decrees are published in the official gazette. The PGR also noted that the decree undermines the principles of the democratic rule of law and constitutes a criminal offense, adding that it will initiate proceedings against Mondlane.

Interpol operation nabs 37 Islamic State and al-Shabaab suspects in East Africa

Interpol announced on 27 January that 37 arrests were made in eight East African countries in a joint operation with Afripol and national security authorities. Interpol released details of arrests in Kenya, Somalia, DRC, and Tanzania only. According to the statement, the two arrested in Tanzania were connected to ISM.

Death of Arlindo Chissale confirmed

The family of Arlindo Chissale, who was last seen on 7 January, confirmed his death to Cabo Ligado last week. While his body has not yet been recovered, his family understands that he was murdered by “death squads.” Chissale, 45, was most recently active as an organizer for the Podemos party in Pemba. He was regularly in conflict with the authorities for his political activity. He had in the past been a communications manager for the former Renamo mayor of Nacala, Raúl Novinte, with whom he was charged with inciting unrest after the municipal elections in 2023. In 2022, he was detained on terrorism charges in Balama, and later released.

Chissale’s work as a journalist covering the conflict in northern Mozambique was groundbreaking. Under his Pinnacle News brand, he led coverage of the crisis from the start, with some of the first reports from Mocímboa da Praia on 5 October on Facebook, the day the insurgency started. In subsequent years, the Pinnacle News website was one of the only outlets with regular detailed coverage of the conflict. Many other outlets relied on Pinnacle News, including Cabo Ligado. He also kept a unique personal diary of covering the conflict, still available on Macua Blogs.

Cabo Ligado