Situation Summary

Following an apparent lull of several weeks, the security forces deployed ground troops to Macomia as part of an ongoing offensive, targeting territory that has been systematically bombarded by Rwandan helicopters since the end of July. On 17 September, local media reported that a joint force of Mozambican and Rwandan troops had attacked an insurgent base at Quiterajo, killing five Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) fighters. The next day, the governor of Cabo Delgado, Valige Tauabo, announced that government and Rwandan troops had recaptured the critical coastal town of Mucojo. 

However, the area clearly had not been fully secured, as Mozambican and Rwandan troops clashed with insurgents just outside Mucojo between 24 and 26 September and suffered at least four fatalities on the second day, according to the chief of staff of the Northern Operational Command, General Omar Saranga. He also reported that at least 10 insurgents were killed and four were captured on 25 September. Islamic State (IS) claimed to have injured several Mozambican and Rwandan soldiers in the clash. Military vehicles were seen speeding toward Mucojo on 25 September by a Cabo Ligado source. State broadcaster TVM reported that insurgents had laid improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on key roads to the Macomia coast, hampering the movements of the security forces,  a challenge highlighted by Cabo Ligado in August. 

The clashes were referred to by President Filipe Nyusi when speaking at a ceremony to mark Armed Forces Day on 25 September. He said that the government was in control of Mucojo town, but insurgents were still active in “some areas of the forests of the Mucojo administrative post.” He acknowledged that government troops had been “in direct combat with the enemy” and that insurgents operating between Mucojo and Quiterajo “are trying to find logistical means to sustain their actions.”

In a major security breach in Palma district, insurgents beheaded a man less than 10 km from Palma town in the early hours of 26 September, marking the first attack so close to town since at least 2022. IS claimed the incident took place in the village of Manguna but Cabo Ligado understands it was in nearby fields, close to the road to Pundanhar. Panic spread throughout Palma town, but calm had been restored by the end of the day.

In Mocímboa da Praia district, insurgents attacked the village of Mbau on 17 September and killed at least one person, for which IS claimed credit on social media. Mbau has clearly become a key target for ISM insurgents as this is the third attack on the village since 20 August, despite it being the location of a major Rwandan forward operating base.

Reports continued to emerge of insurgents scavenging for food. The district administrator of Mocímboa da Praia, Sérgio Cipriano, announced that insurgents kidnapped five women in fields outside the village of Chinda on 27 September on the N380 and ransomed them for potatoes, cassava, and tomatoes. Cipriano also claimed that insurgents asked if they would be given amnesty if they surrendered. A small band of insurgents was also spotted in Nangade district, circulating around the villages of Chitama, Quinto Congresso, and Nkonga, occasionally asking for food, one source told Cabo Ligado.

Meanwhile, it appears that some insurgents have been forced into the forests of Quissanga district by the security forces’ offensive in Macomia.

Focus: Nyusi on the insurgency

Armed Forces Day commemorates the start of the liberation war on 25 September 1964. This year, President Nyusi used the occasion to provide his most detailed understanding so far of the insurgency in northern Mozambique, touching on its origins, transnational nature, and leadership.

Firstly, Nyusi recognized the insurgency’s deep roots in northern Mozambique. He spoke of the arrival of people from the Great Lakes region in 2009 and cited their connections with the Allied Democratic Forces, now also known as Islamic State Central Africa Province. He also noted the contribution of some of those who returned from religious studies overseas.

During his speech, Nyusi recognized the contribution of forces from Rwanda, Tanzania, and the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique. He failed to mention the Wagner Group’s ill-fated mission in Cabo Delgado, from late 2020 to early 2021. The Dyck Advisory Group (DAG), a South African private military contractor, was not mentioned either. DAG was operational in Cabo Delgado from April 2020 until March 2021.

Focusing on the state of the insurgents now, Nyusi confirmed that ‘Ulanga,’ a Tanzanian, is still in place as the group’s leader, “assisted by Faridi Suleiman Haruni.” Ulanga is thought to have been appointed spiritual leader by April 2023. A report in circulation at the time noted that a “Farido” was the overall military commander, with Bonomade Machude Omar in charge of operations. Though Omar was killed later that year, the continued presence of Ulanga and Faridi/Farido indicates stability in the group’s leadership.

Discussing the insurgency’s financing, Nyusi pointed to the role of kidnappings and the extortion of businesses as important sources of income for the insurgents. However, he also noted the “financial and military support” provided by IS. While IS has been shown to have financed the group, military support is thought to be limited to technical assistance and recruitment.

The president referred to a propaganda and deradicalization program that he said had been running since August 2022. However, he indicated no shift in the state’s current uncompromising approach to the insurgency, eschewing any suggestion of talks. He went on to warn people not to collaborate with “terrorists” for it is “difficult not to give space for people to comment on the lack of human rights when trying to solve a real problem.” This reflects current practice in Macomia district, where operations are currently focused. Thus far in 2024, ACLED data show that 29% of political violence events in Macomia district involving state forces were targeting civilians. 

Round Up

IS propagandists allege dirty tricks

The producers of an IS Kiswahili language podcast have claimed that their productions are being distributed by a fake channel. They claim that the fake channel is being used to attract potential recruits, who then disappear. The claim was made in a statement released on 28 September on the Telegram channel the group uses to distribute the podcast and stay in touch with followers. The statement claims that they knew those behind the operation, “even by face,” saying they are based in Mombasa in Kenya, and in Tanzania. In a further statement on 30 September, the producers threatened that “we will not leave them alone as long as they do not leave us alone.”

Politico alleges massacre in Palma

A report in Politico alleges that members of a Mozambique Armed Defence Forces (FADM) “commando unit” held up to 250 men from villages south of Palma in containers at the entrance to the Mozambique LNG project for three months in 2021. The report alleges that most were killed over that time, but is unclear on the actual number of alleged fatalities. Cabo Ligado has been unable to substantiate the report.

Nyusi opens UIR barracks in Cabo Delgado, featuring Mark Tout memorial

President Nyusi inaugurated a new 183 million meticais ($2,865,245) base for the police Rapid Intervention Unit in the Metuge district of Cabo Delgado on 28 September, the largest barracks built since Mozambican independence in 1975. The base includes a memorial to South African Mark Gilbert Tout and Mozambican police marksman Safinate Bernardo Matai, who were killed when Tout’s Bat Hawk light aircraft crashed in Cabo Delgado in April. The memorial standing in the parade square described Tout as a “sniper pilot” and includes a photo of him in his Bat Hawk. The shooting range was named after Matai.

Chief of Mozambique’s armed forces meets with Rwandan and Tanzanian commanders

The chief of FADM, Admiral Joaquim Mangrasse, met with Major General Emmy Ruvusha, commanding the Rwanda Security Forces in Cabo Delgado, on 27 September to review joint military efforts against the insurgency. Mangrasse also discussed security cooperation with the chief of the Tanzanian armed forces, General Jacob Mkunda, during his visit to Maputo on 25 September to participate in the 60th anniversary celebrations of FADM. Tanzania still operates a counter-insurgency force in the Nangade district of Cabo Delgado.

Macomia and Quissanga not safe for schools to reopen says teachers’ representative

A senior representative of the National Teachers’ Organisation, Dinita Dos Santos Dinis, has criticized the government's push for teachers to return to the districts of Macomia and Quissanga in Cabo Delgado. She called it a "dangerous illusion" to claim security has been restored. She argued that the districts remain unsafe, and the government must ensure genuine security before reopening schools there.