Cabo Ligado Update: 2-15 September 2024
Situation Summary
Seven bodies washed up on the coast north of Mocímboa da Praia town on 5 September in unexplained circumstances. All were blindfolded with their hands tied behind their backs. One had been beheaded. Islamic State has not claimed responsibility, and with the exception of the decapitated body, the deaths do not reflect the insurgents’ usual methods.
Some local sources have reported that the victims had been kidnapped by security forces on the Anga bridge on the south side of Mocímboa da Praia town, next to a barracks on the road to Luchete. The military has been accused locally of extorting civilians trying to cross the bridge and in some cases, tying people up and beating them. These allegations have not been corroborated by official sources.
Otherwise, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) has remained largely quiet throughout Cabo Delgado province in the last two weeks as insurgents are likely busy entrenching themselves in new bases around the Messalo river after being forced from the Catupa forest and Macomia coast by the Rwandan-led offensive.
Despite the overall lull in ISM activity, insurgent activity has been confirmed in the vicinity of Mocímboa da Praia. A woman and her three children were kidnapped on 4 September in Mangoma village, just 5 kilometers west of the town near the N380, according to the civil society group the Centre for Public Integrity (CIP). The four were later released. On 8 September, two insurgents reportedly robbed two traders in the south of the district as they passed through Nazimoja village on the way to Mocímboa da Praia, stealing over 60,000 meticais ($939), according to a source.
IS also claimed to have burned six houses in an attack on Mbau on 13 September, approximately 30 km from Mocímboa da Praia. A local source told Cabo Ligado that it was a raiding party in search of food. The NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) indicates significant fires around the town for 14 September.
Insurgents appear to be focused on gathering supplies and have launched raids for food on several villages near the Messalo river. On 4 September, insurgents entered Nguri in Muidumbe district and looted foodstuffs including fish, maize, and rice. They forced more than two dozen locals to help carry the stolen goods into the woods, releasing them the next morning, CIP reported. The insurgents reappeared in the village of 1 de Maio near Nguri on 10 September and searched for food before retreating back into the forest. On 12 September, they looted up to five sacks of dried cassava from Litamanda village in Macomia district, one local source claimed. Litamanda lies less than 10 km south of Nguri, across the Messalo river. Around 11 September in Nangade district, two insurgents were also reportedly seen by the Nkundi river, causing residents of the village of Luneque approximately 7 km away to flee to Nangade town.
Rwanda’s aerial operations against insurgent bases around the Messalo river and the Macomia coast continue, according to a TVM interview with outgoing commander Major General Alex Kagame on 10 September. Kagame also said that insurgents have been pushed out of Catupa, Mucojo and Quiterajo but “it is not yet done.” One security source reported that helicopters bombarded targets in the Catupa forest on 11 September.
Focus: Preparing for an election during an insurgency
During a training session for election officials in Pemba on 14 September, an official of the National Electoral Commission (CNE) stated that security conditions across Cabo Delgado province were adequate to allow the 9 October elections to go ahead. To support this, he stated that from Sunday 15 September, election officials would be sent to all districts to carry out further training for officials at the district level.
This election will be the second general election to be held since the Cabo Delgado insurgency began in October 2017. The last general election was held in October 2019, when overall levels of political violence in Cabo Delgado province in the months preceding the election were lower than today. In June, July, and August this year, ACLED data show 56 political violence events involving ISM in the province, compared to 47 in the same period in 2019. In both periods, seven districts were affected by this violence.
In 2019, state concerns about the threat of the insurgency to that year’s election were one factor that led Mozambique to contract Russian military contractor the Wagner Group that year. Despite the political imperative, Wagner didn’t perform well, primarily due to poor relations with Mozambique’s Defense and Security Forces (FDS). By April 2020, it was gone.
Similarly, concern with this year’s election is likely an important driver of the current Rwandan operation, which is seeing some success. TVM journalist Brito Simango has reported that Mozambican forces are now present in Mucojo and Quiterajo in an attempt to hold territory cleared by Rwandan air operations. Major-General Kagame’s remarks to TVM broadly reflect the current situation, which he described as primarily a “mop-up” operation, though air operations were continuing at the time of his interview.
Despite this, election officials on the road in the pre-election season will face risks from ISM. ACLED records seven successful IED deployments in June, July, and August 2024, while more are understood to have been laid. These have been in Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, and Muidumbe districts. If appropriate risk assessments are conducted prior to election-related work, and adequate security measures are in place for CNE teams, they should be in a position to ensure that voting and counting can go ahead in most of the province. However, in districts most affected by the conflict, such as Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, and Muidumbe, the vote may be restricted to district headquarters.
Round Up
Nyusi calls on insurgents to surrender; MDM’s Simango vows to negotiate
Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi has called on insurgents in Cabo Delgado to surrender, warning that patience is running out. Nyusi was speaking in Matola to mark the 50th anniversary of the Lusaka Accords. Nyusi said that on 25 September, Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) Day, he might again reveal the names of the leaders of the 'terrorists' operating in Cabo Delgado.
Meanwhile, the presidential candidate of the Mozambique Democratic Movement, Lutero Simango, has vowed to address ‘terrorism’ in Cabo Delgado and said he is even willing to negotiate with the insurgents to end the violence. Simango is, however, highly unlikely to win the election — and will even struggle to finish in the top three.
Progress countering terrorism financing
Reports this week that two people have been convicted in Maputo of terrorism financing should be good news. According to a spokesperson for the Cabo Delgado provincial prosecutor’s office, the two were given 28- and 30-year sentences. However, no other details have been released yet. More information may come out if the two are officially designated as ‘terrorists,’ and placed on the National Designated List, updates of which are published in the government gazette.
One report in the Portuguese press stated that the two individuals had passed through Portugal at one point, and maintained bank accounts there for the purposes of funding the insurgency in northern Mozambique. According to the report, the convictions were possible due to cooperation between the Mozambican and Portuguese authorities. However, this has been denied by the Mozambican Attorney General’s office, which told RDP Africa, Portugal’s lusophone radio service for Africa, that the convictions were driven at the provincial level, with no Portuguese involvement.
The convictions come at a good time for Mozambique as the country looks to get removed from the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) ‘grey list.’ Critical to that is passing assessments made by the Eastern and Southern Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group (ESAAMLG). At the most recent meeting of its Council of Ministers, positive progress was recorded on seven of FATF’s recommendations. FATF will next consider Mozambique’s position on the grey list at its meetings in Paris next month.
Mocímboa da Praia government claims to have negotiated the release of kidnapped fishermen
The local government of Mocímboa da Praia negotiated the release of 66 fishermen captured by insurgents in August, according to the town’s administrator Sérgio Cipriano. He told ZumboFM that his team persuaded the insurgents to free the hostages and denied that any ransom was paid.