Cabo Ligado Update: 19 August-1 September 2024
Situation Summary
After several weeks of intensive bombing, the Rwandan-led offensive on the Macomia district coast appears to have concluded, or at least paused, with no reported incidents in the area. However, Rwandan forces clashed with insurgents in Mocímboa da Praia town, marking the first case of insurgent violence in the town since September 2021, shortly after Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF) regained control of the town the previous month. Insurgents had controlled the town since August 2020. Meanwhile, other groups of insurgents continued to circulate around western Macomia.
On the night of 31 August, around 10 armed insurgents infiltrated Mocímboa da Praia, entered at least one civilian home, and asked for water. Local sources told Cabo Ligado that insurgents opened fire on Rwandan forces just as they were about to be discovered in the neighborhood of Mota. A 15-year-old girl was fatally shot in the clash. The administrator of Mocímboa da Praia, Sérgio Cipriano, told state broadcaster TVM that Rwandan police fell into an ambush. Islamic State (IS) claimed to have killed at least one Rwandan soldier and injured several more. Local sources also report that there may have been Rwandan casualties but this has not been verified. Some UN agencies have scaled back operations in Mocímboa da Praia following the incident.
Prior to the incident in Mocímboa da Praia, on the night of 20 August, insurgents burned and looted several homes in the village of Mbau, approximately 30km from Mocímboa da Praia, in an attack claimed by IS through its weekly newspaper al-Naba. The newspaper published a photo purportedly of the attack, showing a fighter holding an IS flag in front of a burning building. The attack mirrors a similar incident on 8 August when IS fighters snuck into Macomia town, burned a car, and posed in front of it with an IS flag before retreating back into the bush.
On 22 August, a truck triggered an insurgent IED outside the village of Chitunda on the N380 highway in Muidumbe district, but no one was reported injured. IS later published a video filmed in the bush by the side of the road showing the truck driving over the explosive. This is the second time in August that a civilian vehicle has been hit on the N380 highway in northern Cabo Delgado province, suggesting that ISM is deliberately targeting traffic to and from Mocímboa da Praia.
In Macomia district, insurgents fired several shots on the outskirts of Litamanda village, where the Rwandans operate an outpost, on 31 August before quickly withdrawing. No casualties were reported.
On 20 August, a small group of insurgents were observed moving south around the village of Nanjaba on the R766, which connects Macomia town and Mucojo on the coast, where much of the Rwandan offensive had been focused.
Elsewhere, traffic on the N380 was inexplicably interrupted between Silva Macua in Ancuabe district and Macomia town between 16 and 21 August when Rwandan troops traveling from Pemba saw the disruption and reopened the road.
Focus: ISM in Mocímboa da Praia
Regaining control of Mocímboa da Praia was a priority for Rwandan forces when they deployed to Mozambique in July 2021. By August of that year, the town was back under government control. Low-level insurgent activity in the wider district has continued since, though at a much higher level than in neighboring Palma district to the north. The incidents in Mocímboa da Praia and Muidumbe districts reported above illustrate the current challenge of maintaining security across Mocímboa da Praia district and surrounding areas, but they should be considered in the light of operations against Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) in Macomia district.
Since September 2021, ACLED records 100 violent actions involving ISM in Mocímboa da Praia district, compared to just 20 in Palma in the same period. ISM’s resilience in the area can be explained in two ways. Firstly, it has maintained support networks in the town. As recently as March 2023, authorities were concerned about supply networks emanating from the town to support the group. Secondly, the group has maintained a strong presence in Macomia district to the south, exposing southern Mocímboa da Praia to persistent incursions around Mbau, as well as on the coast.
Though less intense, the group has also maintained a presence along the N380 running east from Mocímboa da Praia headquarters to Awasse. Last week’s successful deployment of an IED illustrates their continued concern to disrupt commercial and social life in the town.
On the other hand, the clash in Mocímboa da Praia town and the arson attack in Mbau are likely the effect of recent operations in Macomia district. The incursion and clash in Mocímboa da Praia was neither a serious reconnaissance operation nor an assault on the town. Disrupted command systems, and likely casualties from recent operations, preclude such an operation. The incident in Mbau, like a similar incident in Macomia town on 8 August, was likely opportunistic.
A result of current counterinsurgency operations is that there has not been significant diffusion of the group’s activities out of Macomia district, other than isolated incidents in Mocimboa da Praia, and Nangade districts. If this can be maintained, it would represent a significant success for the RDF.
Round Up
The former Colonel Justus Majyambere of the RDF is now Brigadier General Majyambere, following a promotion announced by Rwanda’s Ministry of Defence on 1 September. Brigadier General Majyambere commands troops in Macomia district, and likely directed recent operations against ISM.
The promotion came amidst significant changes at all levels of the RDF. On 30 August, the ministry announced the dismissal of 197 officers. These included Major General Martin Nzaramba, and Colonel Etienne Uwimana, who were dismissed for corruption and gross misconduct, respectively, according to the RDF spokesperson. This follows a similar set of dismissals in June 2023 when 118 officers were dismissed, including a Major General and a Brigadier General.
Cabo Delgado journalist receives death threats, MISA reports
The Media Institute of Southern Africa (MISA) has condemned death threats sent to TV Sucesso journalist Rui Minja in Pemba. Beginning on 24 August, Minja received several threatening calls late at night from an unknown number, which also tried to extort 7,000 meticais from him, according to a statement published by MISA on 3 September. These threats reportedly began several hours after Minja published a report accusing the police of preventing a gathering held by opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane in Pemba. Misa said: “The attempt to silence a journalist through violence and death threats is unacceptable and reveals a dangerous setback in the guarantee of fundamental freedoms in Mozambique.”
Defense Minister Chume discusses SAMIM’s record
A two-day conference organized by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Maputo on 28 and 29 August explored the lessons that could be learned from its military mission (SAMIM) in Cabo Delgado. Minister of National Defence Cristóvão Chume highlighted SAMIM’s key achievements, including the dismantling of insurgent bases and the containment of insurgent violence, which has allowed 70% of displaced people to return home. In unscripted remarks, Chume also acknowledged the challenges that faced SAMIM, including the lack of legal framework to underpin SADC’s intervention and the fact that funds had to be diverted from Mozambique’s own military to support the intervention forces. SAMIM’s experience should inform SADC’s intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chume said.