Cabo Ligado Update: 27 May-23 June 2024

Jun 27

Situation Summary

Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) suffered a severe setback on 29 May when an attempted assault on Mbau in Mocímboa da Praia was repelled by the Rwanda Security Forces (RSF), with insurgents suffering significant losses. Reports suggest that the RSF killed at least 11 and up to 70 ISM fighters. Since then, there has been reduced activity by both ISM and security forces, with the exception of a small insurgent party reaching Cabo Delgado province’s southern districts of Mecufi and Chiúre and staging minor attacks.

As many as 150 insurgents took part in the attack on Mbau, where the RSF maintains a large forward operating base. ISM possibly hoped to replicate the success of its surprise attack on Macomia on 10 May. However, Rwandan forces reacted quickly to the assault and routed the insurgents by the end of the morning. A Rwandan spokesperson told state broadcaster TVM that the RSF killed at least 70 insurgents. Local sources supported this claim, reporting at least 50 insurgents dead. IS newspaper al-Naba dismissed these estimates as a “blatant exaggeration” but admitted that 10 insurgents were killed.

On 8 June, a much smaller force of insurgents attempted to attack Mbau again, but this time succeeded only in burning several houses before retreating. On 19 June, insurgents launched a third attack on Mbau, killing at least three civilians, including a child. ISM claimed to have killed one, wounded others, and burned five homes.

The RSF likely dealt a significant blow to the insurgency, which probably still only numbers a few hundred fighters. Besides the clashes at Mbau, ISM claimed to have killed or injured five Rwandan soldiers between the villages of Napala and Manica in Macomia district with an IED on 8 June, but this has not yet been corroborated by other sources. On 11 June, a child was killed in Mbau after stepping on an IED, presumably planted by insurgents, according to Carta de Moçambique.

While the rest of ISM regroups at its bases around Mucojo and the Catupa forest in Macomia, a small insurgent raiding party has been dispatched south. Insurgents looted a health center and burned a school in Nacoba village in Quissanga district on 10 June before passing through Nicavaco on the N1 highway outside Pemba on 14 June. Four days later, insurgents burned several vehicles in the village of Nahavara in Mecufi district. Later that day, they also burned and looted the nearby village of Nicupua in Chiúre district. Residents of Mazeze in Chiúre fled into the woods after hearing that insurgents were in the area, according to Lusa.

Focus: Crackdown on Islamic State online platforms

The European Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (EUROPOL) announced on 14 June the dismantling of “critical online infrastructure” used by Islamic State (IS) for “propaganda, recruitment, and radicalization.” This was through joint operations since 2022 conducted by EUROPOL itself, Spain’s Guardia Civil, and the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation. The operations are the likely cause of the greatly reduced number of IS telegram channels in recent months, the most accessible way for people to access and share IS content related to the conflict in northern Mozambique and elsewhere.

The operation conducted by the Guardia Civil, in cooperation with the FBI, targeted the IS-affiliated Ilham Foundation. This is the brand of a network of websites that acted as “a node and archive” to disseminate IS incident claims, newsletters, and videos through social media and messaging apps. They also had links through which contributions could be made to cryptocurrency accounts. Within Spain, the operation led to arrests in Andalucia, Catalonia, and the Canary Islands. The operation, dubbed Operation Almuasasa, targeted “dozens” of servers and web hosting providers in the Netherlands, Germany, Estonia, Romania, Iceland, and the US.

The operation has significant implications for ISM. The group has been able to demonstrate its affiliation to IS and, by implication, its access to financial and technical support by being featured in IS media channels. Perhaps more damagingly, the management of public communications by IS media operations has meant that perceptions of the conflict have been shaped by IS imperatives rather than those of its local leadership. Typically, the IS Telegram channels that have been removed had less than 10 members each. Popular dissemination depended on content being shared by others through open platforms such as X, formerly known as Twitter, or large Mozambican discussion groups hosted on apps such as WhatsApp and Telegram. In taking down the IS Telegram channels, the potential for mass distribution to a Mozambican audience has been greatly reduced.

It is not yet clear that Telegram will continue to keep IS off its platform. The company is in talks with the European Union on whether or not it is covered by the bloc’s Digital Services Act of 2022. If Telegram submits to coverage under the act, IS activity will remain constrained. In the meantime, IS content remains available online through sites available on the Tor browser.

Round Up

State to set up rehabilitation centers for insurgents in Cabo Delgado

Cabo Delgado is planning to establish rehabilitation centers in the districts of Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia, and Muidumbe for former insurgents. Secretary of State António Supeia noted that while some insurgents join voluntarily, others are forcibly recruited, and they should be given the opportunity to reintegrate into the community. The rehabilitation centers will be run by the government and the International Organisation for Migration without the presence of state security forces as they often deter insurgents from turning themselves in. It is unclear whether it will be practical to establish such a center in Macomia in the near future, given the frequency of insurgent attacks in the district. President Filipe Nyusi has previously urged insurgents to leave the bush, promising amnesty.

Daniel Chapo and President Nyusi visit Kigali in secret

Daniel Chapo, the Frelimo candidate for the presidential election in October, visited Kigali in secret alongside President Nyusi on 15 June. The trip has not been publicly acknowledged by the Mozambican government, but it probably involved an audience with Rwandan President Paul Kagame. Prior to going to Rwanda, Chapo visited Tanzania, where he met with President Samia Suluhu Hassan, a meeting which Tanzanian security sector leaders have been pushing for since his nomination as presidential candidate for Frelimo in early May, Cabo Ligado understands. Chapo subsequently met with President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe in Harare.

US Exim will not release Mozambique LNG funds before 2025

The United States export credit agency Exim Bank will not take a decision on releasing financial support for TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project prior to the US election in November, according to Africa Intelligence. Exim Bank remains concerned about the deteriorating security situation in Cabo Delgado and is reluctant to approve long-term projects amid domestic political uncertainty. TotalEnergies may proceed without US support due to political pressure in Mozambique while Rwandan troops are being deployed to stabilize the region.

Dutch government inadequately assessed security risks at Afungi, report argues

The Dutch government overlooked significant security concerns to approve export credit insurance worth over $1 billion for a major company involved in the $20 bn liquefied natural gas project led by TotalEnergies in Afungi, northern Mozambique, according to a report released last week by Dutch civil society organizations Milieudefensie and Both ENDS. The report also accuses the Dutch export credit agency, Atradius DSB, of downplaying the risks to the safety of project workers, despite being aware of the deteriorating security situation ahead of the insurgent attack on Palma in March 2021.

EU considers further funding for the Rwandan mission in Cabo Delgado

The European Union is considering a new request for financial support for Rwandan forces fighting the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, the European Commissioner for International Relations, Jutta Urpilainen, announced during a visit to Maputo. Any further funding would build on the previous approval of 20 million euros in 2023. Approval requires consensus among EU member states.

Cabo Ligado