Cabo Ligado Update: 13-26 May 2024

May 30

Situation Summary

Following Islamic State Mozambique’s (ISM) assault on Macomia town on 10 May, insurgents in Cabo Delgado province have largely kept a low profile. Aside from two attacks claimed by ISM, the most notable development was the return of insurgents to the northern Nangade district on the Tanzanian border, where they have not been active since 2022.

ISM claimed to have shot and killed one person in the village of Muaguide in Meluco district on 13 May, 22 kilometers south of Macomia town, but this has not yet been corroborated by other sources. On the afternoon of 14 May, insurgents attacked the village of Nanduli in Ancuabe district while many were working in the fields, according to the Lusa news agency. ISM claimed to have burned a Mozambican military outpost in the village. Two days later, it released images of the attack, including a picture of a small cache of captured weapons. Carta de Moçambique reported that the insurgent force was six strong and that Rwanda security forces were sent to protect Ancuabe district headquarters, over 27 km southwest of Nanduli. One source reported that up to 25 children were also abducted, but this has not been independently verified.

Insurgents have been observed in Nangade district since 9 May, mostly around the village of Nkonga, marking the first insurgent activity in the district in almost a year and a half. Two armed insurgents entered the village on 10 May, asked for food and money, and assured the locals that they meant no harm. A light skirmish reportedly took place between insurgents and Local Force fighters on 18 May, but there were no casualties, one local source told Cabo Ligado. ISM previously had a base in forested land in the Nkonga area.

The source also claimed that the insurgents were on the way to Michenjele village in Tandahimba district on the Tanzanian side of the Rovuma river. A local source in Tanzania reported that four suspected insurgents were arrested in Tandahimba town, near Michenjele, on 23 May. Two more were arrested on a bus in Tandahimba several days later, allegedly carrying explosives, according to the source, who witnessed the arrests on the bus.

At least four insurgents were captured by security forces on the outskirts of Mocímboa da Praia town and put into Rwandan custody on 21 May while attempting to reconnoiter the area. Local elders were invited to the barracks to try and identify the prisoners, according to a source who also said that prisoners are thought to be treated well by the Rwandans. Two women from Mocímboa da Praia were also arrested that week on suspicion of smuggling food to the insurgents.

Focus: State Forces Reconfiguration

The reconfiguration of state forces continues in Cabo Delgado. In the past fortnight, both the departing Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) and Rwandan Security Forces (RSF) have passed significant milestones. Following the departure of the South Africa contingent from their base near Macomia town, there are now no SAMIM troops left in Macomia district, while the expansion of RSF troop numbers is underway. Meanwhile, the European Union has adjusted its support to the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM), pivoting to an advisory rather than training role, while Maputo continues to lobby for increased counterinsurgency support from the bloc.

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi was in Kigali from 16-17 May, ostensibly to attend the Africa CEO Forum. However, security issues were the main agenda in at least four rounds of talks with Rwandan President Paul Kagame, as well as talks with TotalEnergies CEO Paul Pouyanné, and Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Italian oil company ENI. Upon his return, he confirmed that the RSF mission in Cabo Delgado would expand to replace SAMIM.

Though it has been known for some time that the RSF’s troop numbers would increase, the extent of the expansion is not yet fully clear. On his return from Kigali, President Nyusi stated that the current deployment of 2,500 troops was to be increased but did not give a figure. In Kigali, Rwanda Defence Force spokesperson Brigadier General Ronald Rwivanga was reported on 28 May as saying that over 2,000 troops had already been sent to Cabo Delgado. For Cabo Ligado, Zitamar News calculated that up to 1,500 troops came in on seven flights between 15 and 28 May. Given the numbers estimated, RSF is likely to be deployed across the province.

Reaction to RSF’s expansion has been mixed. According to local sources, they remain popular with the general population in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia districts. However, their presence and expansion have met criticism in the capital. The Centre for Human Rights and Development has pointed out that it is still not known how what it calls the “Rwanda-ization of Cabo Delgado” is paid for or what other benefits Rwanda may be enjoying.

Islamic State also focused on benefits to Rwanda in its editorial in the 16 May edition of its weekly al-Naba newsletter. The writer claimed that Rwanda was looking to “secure a larger share of gas and minerals in this rich region, in addition to expanding its influence and seeking its recognition as a Western-backed commissioner in the region.” The editorial went on to question their likelihood of success “in what other countries have failed to achieve…. scattered in the forests of Mozambique.”

Finally, Minister for National Defense Cristóvão Chume is in Brussels this week, lobbying for both the supply of lethal weaponry to Mozambique and further support to underpin the expanded Rwandan mission. Prior to this, on 14 May, the European Council announced the extension of military support to Mozambique until 30 June 2026. The current European Union Training Mission to Mozambique (EUTMM) will become the European Union Military Advisory Mission to Mozambique. The new mission will be slimmed down and have an advisory role to FADM’s Quick Reaction Force units trained up in the past two years by EUTMM.

Round Up

Abu Dhabi buys Galp stake in offshore oil and gas block

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) announced it would buy a 10% stake in the Area 4 offshore oil and gas concession from Portuguese energy company Galp. The Area 4 consortium is jointly operated by Italy’s Eni, which manages the existing floating LNG platform on the Coral South Field, and is planning another on the Coral North field; and American oil company ExxonMobil, which operates the planned onshore LNG project, to be built next to the Area 1 LNG project being developed by TotalEnergies.

Galp is reportedly focusing on a recent discovery offshore of Namibia, and ADNOC is expanding into trading LNG and other energy commodities. The Mozambique government has been courting the major Gulf oil and gas states and is likely pleased to see one of them take a stake in the Rovuma projects.

Beyond commercial considerations, the deal may have been supported by elements in the Mozambique government that continue to suspect gas producers in the Middle East may be encouraging the insurgency in Cabo Delgado as a way of retarding the development of Mozambique’s gas export projects.

Police suspect illegally sold SIM cards used for insurgency

Mozambique’s National Criminal Investigation Service (Sernic) arrested 27 people in Nampula city on suspicion of providing SIM cards to insurgents. The initiative was led by a 21-year-old who told authorities he was encouraged to set up the scheme by a former Vodacom employee, who has also been arrested. Sernic said thousands of SIM cards were registered without valid identification and were supplied to insurgents in Cabo Delgado, although no evidence of this has been released to the public. It is believed that insurgents use Movitel, not Vodacom, as its SIM cards are not systematically registered to the user, and its facilities were spared in the occupation of Quissanga in March while the premises of two other mobile phone operators were vandalized.

Cabo Ligado