Cabo Ligado Update: 29 April-12 May 2024

May 16

Situation Summary

On 10 May, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) insurgents launched a multi-pronged assault on the strategically significant town of Macomia in Cabo Delgado, marking one of their most daring operations since the attack on Palma in March 2021. Elsewhere, Rwanda Security Forces (RSF) successfully expelled insurgents from Nampula province.

The offensive on Macomia began at dawn, with at least 100 insurgents descending on the town from at least three directions, via the neighborhoods of Xinavane in the southwest, Bangala in the south, and Nanga in the east. Mozambican security forces resisted the advance, but they were driven off their position at Xinavane, and by the afternoon, insurgents had managed to fight their way into the town center, where they were filmed by one of the remaining locals. Much of the civilian population fled into the woods when the fighting began. Human Rights Watch reported that the insurgent group included “dozens” of child soldiers.

A South African convoy consisting of four armored vehicles was dispatched from the provincial capital Pemba to respond to the offensive, but it was ambushed by insurgents around 20 kilometers from Macomia, according to a report by South African news outlet DefenceWeb. The South African Ministry of Defence acknowledged that its troops had “encountered” insurgents and insisted that it had not suffered any casualties, although DefenceWeb reported that one soldier was lightly wounded on the hand. A separate small South African force based just north of Macomia did not intervene as its vehicles had already been withdrawn ahead of the conclusion of the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) in July.

President Filipe Nyusi addressed the nation on the same day at around 12pm local time, confirming that Macomia had come under attack and fighting was ongoing. By mid-afternoon, insurgents were busy looting the town, targeting shops owned by foreigners such as Bangladeshis and NGO warehouses, including the World Food Programme. They reportedly distributed the looted goods among town residents, one local source told Cabo Ligado. They also stole several vehicles, including 4x4s, a car carrying medicine, and a large truck, before finally withdrawing from Macomia on Saturday.

It is unclear how many were killed in the attack as security forces blocked access to the town after retaking it and immediately began clearing away bodies. One local source reported that at least 10 people were killed, while another claimed there were up to 23 fatalities. A Local Force commander named Mr Ngarare was among the dead. After the insurgents returned to base in Mucojo, on the Macomia district coast, they held a meeting where they celebrated killing four soldiers, three Local Force militia members, two police officers, and six “disobedients,” which likely refers to non-Muslims, according to a local source.

Healthcare charity Médecins Sans Frontières said it had relocated some of its staff and suspended its local activities following the attack. According to humanitarian sources, some district authorities remain unreachable while health and education services in the town are no longer functioning. At least six humanitarian organizations reported damage or losses in the attack, including the theft of vehicles and clothing bearing humanitarian logos, causing concern that insurgents may be able to pose as aid workers.

Meanwhile, the insurgents who attacked Nampula province at the end of April were forced back across the Lúrio river into Cabo Delgado by a Rwandan-led operation. The RSF claimed the raiding party was mostly destroyed but enough survived to attack the village of Nacoja in Chiúre district on 3 May, where they killed a civilian and burned houses. Two days later, they attacked the nearby village of Siripa. Islamic State claimed to have burned two churches, a school, and about 190 homes, but this has not yet been independently verified.

On 11 May, an insurgent group, possibly the same one, killed a member of the Naparama local militia in Missufine village in Ancuabe district and also stole livestock and burned homes.

In Mocímboa da Praia district, the RSF led another operation against insurgents in early May, around the villages of Calugo and Lucete. Carta de Moçambique reported that the Rwandans killed up to five insurgents, captured three more, and recovered a boat used to carry looted food.

Focus: Macomia attack

ISM’s successful assault on Macomia district headquarters on 10 May was well-timed. The previous day SAMIM’s South Africa contingent withdrew most of its vehicles from its base north of the town, and a significant aid delivery was made to warehouses in the town. The complexity of the operation, though, suggests that the attack was not wholly opportunistic. Organizing an attack on three fronts, being ready to move looted goods out of the town, and ambushing a returning SAMIM convoy required considerable planning. State forces, national and international, do not seem to have put as much thought into the town’s defense.

There have been rumors of a likely assault on Macomia since February. While it is unclear if SAMIM had specific intelligence around a potential attack, in the days prior to the attack, SAMIM was considering a scenario in which ISM would “attack the villages of the Macomia, Ibo, Quissanga and Quirimbas islands.” Despite this, the lack of coordination between FDS and international forces that left the town open to attack suggests that if they thought it likely, no steps were being taken to address it.

So soon after the attack, it remains difficult to reconstruct the actions of the various forces. DefenceWeb’s report indicates that SAMIM did not take offensive actions against ISM. Though the report mentioned a possible ISM ambush of RSF in Mocímboa da Praia district, supposedly on their way to assist, multiple sources in the security sector say that RSF was not called on to assist and did not seek to engage. RSF has issued no statement on the matter.

The responsibility for calling for assistance from RSF lies with the Mozambican government, which downplayed the scale of the attack in its 10 May statement. Clearly, the FDS did not adequately defend the town, with the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) having to abandon its base at Xinavane on the town’s southwest outskirts. However, their withdrawal appears to have been a move to other positions rather than an ill-disciplined flight, which has happened on occasion in the past.

A reliable source in the province claims that ISM leaders in Mucojo said at a meeting on 12 May that after the success of Macomia, the towns of Mocímboa da Praia, Palma, Meluco, Metuge, and Ancuabe were potential future targets. Prior to last week, such reports could be dismissed as rumors. In the wake of the attack in Macomia, it is clear that the posture of state forces in the province will need to be urgently revisited.

Round Up

Daniel Chapo is Frelimo’s surprise pick for next president

In an extraordinary meeting held from 3-5 May, ruling party Frelimo’s Central Committee chose Daniel Chapo, the governor of Inhambane province, to be the party’s candidate at Mozambique’s presidential election to be held on 9 October this year. If he wins the election, he will take office in January 2025 and appoint his cabinet of ministers. As president, he will be the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. He will also likely take over as president of the party soon thereafter. In the interim, he is now serving as acting secretary general of Frelimo.

The choice of Chapo surprised everyone, including himself. Frelimo’s Political Commission put him on a shortlist of three candidates. He was only informed of this hours before it was announced to the Central Committee. President Nyusi’s preferred choice was the party’s Secretary General Roque Silva, but when he proved unacceptable to the Central Committee, Chapo emerged as the compromise candidate.

Before being made governor of Inhambane in 2016, Chapo was administrator of Palma district, where he gained plaudits from civil society for his conciliatory approach to relations between the local community and Anadarko, the American company that was at that time the operator of the Mozambique LNG project. Before Palma, he administered the district of Nacala-a-Velha, on the coast of Nampula province.

As Commander-in-Chief and head of state and government, the next president will, like President Nyusi, need to manage relationships between FADM and the Police of the Republic of Mozambique in the counterinsurgency effort. The nature of the new president’s relationship with key allies, including Rwandan President Paul Kagame and Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu Hassan, as well as allies such as the EU and the US, will also be important determinants for the future path of the conflict in Cabo Delgado.

CISLAMO’s Sheikh Aminuddin under attack

A pseudonymous writer in the Canal de Moçambique newspaper last week accused government officials in Nampula of threatening Muslim leaders who wished to celebrate Eid-el-Fitr on Thursday, 11 April, rather than the day before. The issue stems from disputes over whether the holiday should be determined by the sighting of the moon in Saudi Arabia, or locally. The Islamic Council of Mozambique (CISLAMO) favors the former.

Though seemingly petty, the issue is a proxy one for dissatisfaction with the leadership of Sheikh Aminuddin Mohamed, the president of CISLAMO. The writer - “Issmail Zahid” - alludes to the support of Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs Helena Kida for CISLAMO’s position and accuses Sheikh Aminuddin of racism against Mozambican Muslims of Indian origin.

This is a challenge for those supporting community-level peacebuilding projects. As the government works only with CISLAMO, much donor assistance for such programs goes there too. Distrust in the community of CISLAMO and the government will likely make such efforts less effective.

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