Cabo Ligado Weekly: 13-19 March 2023

Mar 21

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-March 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 17 March 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.

Total number of political violence events: 1,630
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,683
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,020

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Last week saw insurgent activity concentrated in Mocímboa da Praia district, and along the coast in Macomia. Reports suggest a large group of insurgents, numbering up to 100, may have crossed the N380 road from the Rovuma basin to establish a new base around Namurussia, also known as Quinherussia, in Macomia district. The area lies between the Catupa forest to the west, and Cogolo village on the road linking Mucojo to Quiterajo to the east. Most of last week’s incidents occurred around this area.

The most significant incident took place on 14 March in Mitope, Mocímboa da Praia district, where insurgents clashed with Local Forces. There is disagreement over the number of casualties. Some sources report one of the Local Forces was killed, while online news site Carta de Moçambique claims there were four fatalities, including two civilians, and two wounded. News agency Lusa quoted one local man who said insurgents beheaded two Local Forces and a civilian and kidnapped 10 women and children. Villagers have since fled to Awasse, 10 kilometers south, according to a local source. Despite being attacked earlier in the month, and in December, Mitope was last week protected by just a Local Forces detachment.

On 13 March, a convoy of the police Rapid Intervention Unit encountered insurgents who were preparing an ambush on the N380 near Miangalewa on the border of Muidumbe and Macomia districts. A firefight ensued, and the insurgents fell back with no reported casualties on either side. Roadside ambushes have become one of the insurgents’ preferred modes of attack. In February, Islamic State newspaper al-Naba claimed fighters were targeting the R698 and N380 roads that connect the north and south of Cabo Delgado to “strike the economy of the Mozambican government.”

Meanwhile, along the coast of Macomia and Mocímboa da Praia districts, insurgent groups are redoubling efforts to win ‘hearts and minds.’ In Pangane, Macomia, approximately 30 insurgents appeared on the afternoon of 13 March, looking to buy supplies without using or threatening any violence. The next day, they returned to confiscate and burn alcohol and cigarettes but otherwise behaved peacefully. The day after that, they were spotted in Ingoane village, 10 km to the north, and were thought to be moving toward the Messalo river.

About 14 insurgents arrived in Ulo village, just over 10 km south of Mocímboa da Praia town, on 18 March, ostensibly to buy food and supplies again. Despite their insistence that they came in peace, many villagers fled and hid in the nearby mangroves. One local source told Cabo Ligado that eight insurgents were subsequently captured, and the rest escaped.

In Ancuabe, three artisanal miners were beheaded around the village of Nacassa, but the culprits are unknown. One local community leader claimed the incident was a result of a dispute between miners.

Weekly Focus: The Security Challenge of Normalization

Continuing return of displaced people to Mocímboa da Praia – over 2,500 returned in the first week of March – is straining public services. Alongside this trend, insurgents continue to reach out to communities, as they did in Ulo last week, or attack them, as they did in Mitope last week for the second time this month. Under these circumstances, communicating a clear strategy for dealing with the insurgency in and around Mocímboa da Praia town is proving as challenging as service delivery.

On 17 March, the police called a public meeting in Mocímboa da Praia town, according to a source in the town who attended. Seven men who were claimed to be surrendered insurgents were presented to the crowd. One of them, supposedly from Pemba, told the meeting that he had come to ask the people to cooperate with both Mozambique’s Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and their Rwandan counterparts, and that fighters should hand themselves in so they could be rehabilitated, and return to their families. He also called for motorcyclists involved in supplying the insurgents from town to get out of that business.

Encouraging collaboration with FDS and Rwandan forces is difficult when they are not equally respected. Just two days after the 17 March meeting, the same source attended a public meeting called by motorcycle taxi drivers, who requested the presence of the police district commander. They complained to him that last week, a suspect they identified to police was quickly released. Their appeal to Rwandan authorities was well met, and the suspect was again taken into custody by them. In a different case, a source in the town tells of a suspect arrested on 17 March by the Mozambican police one day after his family claimed he had been cleared by the Rwandan security forces who had visited their home to speak with him. In neither case is it clear to residents that the arrest was justified, and in both cases, the police’s authority has been questioned by the community.

Beyond Mocímboa da Praia town, strategic coordination between security actors remains imperfect. Mitope in the west of the district has been attacked twice in the past month, most recently last week. Nevertheless, the town still has just a Local Forces detachment, and has seen no Rwandan operations. This contrasts with Malinde, just 10 km north of the district headquarters, where the appearance of insurgents triggered a significant response from Rwandan forces. Mitope is 40 km from Mocímboa da Praia town, but less than 10 km from southeast Nangade district, where insurgents have in the past found shelter. The security architecture in Nangade is complex, with FDS collaborating there with the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique, and a separate Tanzanian force operating under a bilateral arrangement with Mozambique. Intelligence sharing between the various intervention forces is poor, which Rwanda may see as presenting a risk to their forces.

In September 2022, President Filipe Nyusi similarly presented some supposed insurgents, and offered amnesty to those who give themselves in. These offers are having little impact, if continued movements and attacks, such as last week in Mitope, are a measure. A viral video in circulation in closed chat apps may also be a measure. In it, a youth playing a Mozambican soldier threatens to arrest a young man. “You are the ones who go around talking in the neighborhoods that we smell like old socks,” he says. “You don't respect us. It’s because of the Rwandans, isn't it?”

Weekly Round-Up

Exxon tender adds weight to likely LNG restart in second half of the year

ExxonMobil published a call for proposals at the end of last week, for companies to design and ultimately build its onshore gas liquefaction project on the Afungi peninsula, on the same site as the liquefied natural gas (LNG) project operated by TotalEnergies. The American super-major has consistently said it will wait for TotalEnergies’ project to get back to work before it does, so this move is yet another indicator that TotalEnergies is telling its partners, if not the public, that it has decided to get back to work in the second half of this year.

The call for proposals suggests quite a different project design, based on smaller modular units, than that envisaged in the development plan that the government approved in 2019, meaning ExxonMobil and its partners in the Mozambique Rovuma Venture will need to submit a new development plan for government approval. All sides – Exxon and its consortium, TotalEnergies, and the government – are likely to want to have that process done and dusted before the presidency is due to change hands in October 2024.

Police meet peaceful marchers with brutality across Mozambique

Popular marches were planned in all Mozambique’s provincial capitals, and some other towns, for Saturday 18 March, in remembrance of protest rapper Edson da Luz, better known by his stage name Azagaia. In each city, including Pemba and Montepuez in Cabo Delgado, the organizers informed the municipal authorities and the police, as required. In Cabo Delgado, the police objected, and so they were canceled.

Elsewhere in the country, however, marchers gathered on Saturday morning – but were in most cases violently dispersed by the police before the marches could start. Amateur footage in Maputo showed seemingly indiscriminate firing of tear gas, and at least one person being brutally beaten by police. One young man lost an eye after being hit by a tear gas canister.

In Nampula, one of the organizers of the aborted march, Gamito dos Santos Carlos, was taken by police and, according to an account posted on his Facebook page, taken away, blindfolded, tied up, and beaten and tortured for a number of hours.

The behavior of the police has raised alarm internationally, with Amnesty and the United Nations Human Rights Office expressing concern. But internally, it will contribute to levels of distrust between the police and the population, which already complicates the counter-insurgency effort in Cabo Delgado.

Call for release of detainees in Tanzania

Leading Tanzanian human rights non-governmental organization (NGO), the Legal and Human Rights Center (LHRC) last week called for the release of six members of one family who have been held awaiting trial on terrorism charges since 2016. The LHRC also called for an inquest into the death of one other family member in custody, Sheikh Said Mohammed Ulatule. He was 96 years old.

The call was made jointly with Sheikh Ponda Issa Ponda, a longtime activist from the Muslim community. Arrested for inciting religious hatred in 2012, he has, in recent years, been moving into the mainstream, collaborating with secular NGOs and opposition political parties.

Mozambique armed forces deploy latest military plane to Cabo Delgado

The Mozambican armed forces are one of the first customers for the new South African built Paramount Mwari multi-purpose aircraft. Paramount has kept its list of clients confidential after announcing in September that its first nine orders had been placed, but last week pictures of the aircraft apparently at an airfield in Cabo Delgado emerged online.

The Mwari boasts reconnaissance and precision strike capabilities, making it one of the most sophisticated pieces of equipment fielded in the conflict so far.

Flight International reported that the first Mwari was delivered in December 2022, with a second arriving in February. Paramount has previously provided the Mozambican military with equipment, including Marauder armored personnel carriers and Gazelle light helicopters, as well as military training through Dubai-based Burnham Global, in which it owns a stake.

Detained missionaries released after four months

Missionaries Ryan Koher, W.J. du Plessis, and Eric Dry were granted a provisional release from prison last week after being detained in November last year while trying to fly aid packages to a Christian orphanage in Balama, Cabo Delgado. The Mission Aviation Fellowship announced that their pilot Koher, from the United States, and the two South Africans are still forbidden from leaving the country while the case continues in the courts.

Local business community complains reconstruction contracts are going to outsiders

The local business community in Cabo Delgado has complained of being excluded from contracts to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by the conflict. Mamudo Irache, chairperson of the Cabo Delgado Business Council, told Notícias newspaper that local businesses had hoped that reconstruction efforts would provide an opportunity for them to recover after suffering losses related to the conflict. But instead, local companies have not won any tenders, he claimed, saying that “even for the rehabilitation of restrooms, they are contracting companies from outside Cabo Delgado,” according to a report from state news agency AIM. Cabo Delgado businesses, he added, are beginning to believe that the agencies involved in reconstruction are deliberately working against local businesses. He also complained that “international agencies” are making excessive demands for certification of local companies, who nevertheless still miss out on contracts.

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