Cabo Ligado Weekly: 6-12 March 2023

Mar 14

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-March 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 10 March 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.

Total number of political violence events: 1,627
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,679
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,020

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Insurgents remained mostly inactive last week, an ongoing trend for almost a month. Two confirmed incidents involving insurgents took place around the village of Mandava in Muidumbe district. On 6 March, between three and four insurgents came to steal food but were captured by Local Forces without reported clashes. According to a source, the group included an armed gunman and at least two children, who were later taken to Miteda for questioning.

On 9 March, an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated under an armored personnel carrier belonging to the Botswana Defence Force. According to a security source, there were no reported injuries, and the vehicle was able to continue its patrol. However, the source noted that the IED was more sophisticated in its construction than usual. The Islamic State (IS) later claimed the IED wounded two soldiers and damaged the vehicle. The use of such devices is possibly becoming more common on both sides. On 24 February, a booby trap thought to have been laid by the Mozambican armed forces injured two Local Forces fighters near Chai in Macomia. ACLED has recorded four other IED attacks by insurgents since August 2021.

Insurgents were also observed during the week around Marere, south of Mocímboa da Praia town, trying to establish relations with the local villagers. They reportedly gave three young people up to 18,000 meticais to buy food and supplies for them. One of them who tried to report the insurgents to the Mozambican security forces was found by the insurgents and threatened with decapitation. He subsequently fled to Mocímboa da Praia town, according to local sources.

Despite the presence of insurgents, people continue to return to Mocímboa da Praia. Between 1 and 7 March, the district saw an influx of 2,542 displaced people returning home, according to the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Displacement Tracking Matrix. By contrast, IOM recorded 1,867 people returning over two months between 30 November 2022 and 27 January 2023. This recent influx comes despite the many difficulties facing returning civilians, namely abuse by security forces who demand money for passage across the Montepuez river in Moja, where they must pay again for another escort north to Mocímboa da Praia.

Weekly Focus: “Totalandia” Report Highlights Constraints Elsewhere

Observatório do Meio Rural’s (OMR) latest publication (see Weekly Round Up, below) argues that the Mozambican state is not necessarily in control of Palma and Mocímboa da Praia districts, particularly in terms of security, service provision, and economic development. Dependence on Rwanda for security, and TotalEnergies for support to infrastructure rehabilitation, basic services, and business development has led to the creation of a “Totalandia” in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia districts, OMR argues. The report offers a valuable framework for understanding how return, reconstruction, and security are managed. In this way, it offers an approach to looking at how neighboring Nangade district may manage in a context where numerous security forces are in place but no investor with deep pockets, like TotalEnergies.

After at least four months of concerted actions against insurgents’ encampments, Nangade remains relatively peaceful, exemplified by a sports and cultural event at the district headquarters last week. The last significant action by the insurgents was on 15 November, when Tanzanian troops were ambushed near Mandimba. The recent arrival in Nangade district of 54 Tanzanian police officers as part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) also points to improved security. The deployment is the first demonstration of SAMIM’s decision to move from a security-oriented Scenario Six to Scenario Five, where they focus more on working with communities.

Nevertheless, as in Palma, there are signs that local authorities in Nangade are reliant on the support of intervention forces. Tanzania’s bilateral force, based in Mandimba in the district’s northeast, has been instrumental in allowing internally displaced people (IDPs) in the district headquarters to return to villages around Mandimba, as Rwandan forces have been instrumental in supporting return in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia districts.

However, the hundreds of people returning to Mandimba are just a fraction of the total displaced in the district. Ntoli, in the south of the district, hosts over 11,000 IDPs, according to the IOM’s November assessment. The IDPs are mostly from Muidumbe district, according to IOM, but also include people from villages in the west of the Nangade district, according to a local source. The source tells of increasing tensions between the host community and IDP populations, with the latter accused of over-harvesting firewood and scavenging crops from farmland.

Careful coordination between civilian and military authorities in Nangade and Muidumbe districts will be needed to support the return of IDPs in Ntoli, of whom there is a much greater number of people than those who returned to Mandimba recently. A return of the local population would also require significant support to livelihoods and public administration, without an international oil major in place to pay for it.

The civil-military liaison challenge is considerable. SAMIM’s introduction of a more community-oriented approach comes amidst continuing tensions between IDPs and host communities. The success of this approach will depend on the provision of resources to support local administration and humanitarian organizations, as well as finding the right entry points with local authorities and international forces.

Weekly Round-Up

Absence of the state has reduced Palma and Mocímboa da Praia to “Totalandia” - OMR report

Basic public services and amenities are still lacking in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia despite the return of over 150,000 civilians, according to a report published by the OMR on 6 March. In Mocímboa da Praia, just 38% of schools have reopened, while 25% of its prewar hospital beds are available, serving a population of about 87,000. Palma has fared slightly better, though only 40% of schools have reopened, along with a major shortage of hospital beds.

Economic life has made a recovery, but OMR found it has focused on agriculture to the benefit of Makondes and Christians inland. In contrast, Mwanis and Muslims in coastal fishing areas have been largely neglected, OMR says.

As an illustration of the weakness of public administration, the report notes how Quionga, Olumbe, and Pundanhar's Administrative Posts have no heads. Since the report was published, heads of the Quionga and Olumbe Administrative Posts were sworn in on 10 March.

In the absence of the state, TotalEnergies has filled much of the void in rebuilding infrastructure, leading the OMR to dub Palma and Mocímboa da Praia "Totalandia" and to draw a parallel with the Niassa Company, which ran much of northern Mozambique during the colonial era.

World Bank vice president visits Cabo Delgado

Last week, World Bank Vice President Victoria Kwakwa spent a day touring Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, concluding that the towns once occupied by the insurgents show positive signs of recovery.

“I am pleased with what I have seen: it is encouraging to see vibrant economic activity in the markets, it is pleasant to see the return of youth, construction and agriculture,” she said.

These comments may foreshadow the conclusion of Jean-Christophe Rufin’s report for TotalEnergies on the security and human rights situation in Cabo Delgado, which will determine whether the company will unfreeze its gas project at Afungi. This report was due to be completed by the end of February, but its findings have not yet been published.

Azagaia marches planned for Pemba and Montepuez

Prominent protest rapper Azagaia died at home in Matola last week at the age of 38. His death has led to an outpouring of grief around the country, including Cabo Delgado. Vigils were held on the night of Friday, 10 March, in cities around the country, including in Pemba and Montepuez, and marches are also being organized for 18 March. In Montepuez, the planned march has been communicated to the municipal authorities, who must give final clearance for it to proceed. Authorities in Mozambique tend not to permit demonstrations that are not explicitly favoring Frelimo. In Cabo Delgado, local authorities may use the security situation as a pretext to deny permission for a march. As a result, there is potential for conflict between protesters and police, whether or not the marches are allowed.

TotalEnergies recruitment confirmed

There are further signs that TotalEnergies’ is preparing to restart operations in Afungi in July, as claimed by Saipem recently. Most recently, recruitment agencies in Maputo have been contacted to check on the availability of former senior staff members to return to work.

Tanzania maritime contribution

South African news site DefenceWeb reports that the Naval Command of the Tanzania People’s Defence Force deployed a “war vessel” to patrol the Mozambique channel. According to the South African Navy (SAN), the ship joined three SAN vessels operating in the area. The announcement was made after a meeting of the Southern African Development Community’s Standing Marine Committee, held from 8 to 10 March in Cape Town. A statement made by the South African National Defence Force after the meeting noted that Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo agreed to host planning for “Exercise Migebuka,” described as “the Riverine and Inland military exercise designed to allocate maritime assets and resources” to SADC’s Mission in Mozambique.

French maritime contract

Africa Intelligence reports that the French parastatal Economat des Armées is facilitating the supply of eight patrol vessels to the Mozambican coast guard under European Peace Facility support to Mozambique. According to Africa Intelligence, the boats will be from Zodiac Milpro, a French firm specializing in small military craft.

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