Cabo Ligado Weekly: 27 February-5 March 2023

Mar 7

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-March 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 3 March 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.

Total number of political violence events: 1,625
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,677
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,020

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Another week of relative quiet has passed in Cabo Delgado. The only confirmed fatalities were reported in Mitope, Mocímboa da Praia, where insurgents attacked on the afternoon of 4 March, killing two members of the Local Forces and injuring a woman and possibly one other civilian. The insurgents occupied the town for several hours, looting food and goods before withdrawing west toward Chitolo. Mitope was previously attacked in December and remains vulnerable to insurgents infiltrating from Nangade district to the east. It is situated just under 40 km from Mocímboa da Praia town, where security forces are clearly still struggling to ward off insurgent threats.

Insurgents appeared near Ncoripo village on 1 March, approximately 10 km west of Meluco district headquarters. Sources give conflicting accounts of what happened. Two agree that at least seven people, men and women, were kidnapped. One claims that three were killed, while another claims that the women were sexually assaulted. The incident took place 25 km northeast of Ravia, where insurgents appeared on 29 January, and tried to reassure locals that they came in peace. A local source suspects that the Ravia group was responsible for the Ncoripo incident.

Also on 1 March, seven insurgents surrendered to Local Forces near Ngangolo, approximately 25 km south of Nangade district headquarters, according to one source. Despite being armed with AKM-47 assault rifles, machine guns, bazookas, and grenades, they were captured without a shot being fired, the source said.

Reports emerged last week of an improvised explosive device detonation near Chai, Macomia, on 24 February which injured two members of the Local Forces. The incident occurred near the lake to the east of Chai, just 2 km east of the village, with no military position nearby. One source claims it was likely to have been a booby trap laid by the Mozambican armed forces. This is thought to be a common cause of friendly fire incidents. Patrols by Rwandan forces in the area have been stepped up in the past week.

Weekly Focus: Forces Strategize

Rains have limited everyone’s movements in recent weeks. The last attack by the insurgents on a military target was on a Defense and Security Forces (FDS) position near Miangelewa in Muidumbe district on 14 February. Since the announcement of the end of Operation Vulcão IV on 22 February, there have been no reports of actions by the FDS. Of international forces, only events involving Rwandan forces in Mocímboa da Praia have been recorded, reflecting continuing pressure in that district. With rain likely to continue until the end of March, the situation will likely remain quiet. Signals and human intelligence allow state forces and allies to have a good idea of the location of key leaders, but not of how they will respond to the next round of operations against them. The success of such operations will depend on coordination between various forces on the ground.

The most likely location for insurgency leaders remains the shifting camps along the Messalo river valley, stretching from Mueda to Mocímboa da Praia. Cabo Ligado received an unconfirmed report this week that an insurgent leader named Abu Dardai Jongo has been leading groups active in southern Mocímboa da Praia. With the end of the rains, this will likely be the focus of security operations. Currently, the most active forces in the area are the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM) and the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF).

Past counter-insurgency operations have seen their success limited through a lack of coordination between the various forces in the province. Expanded Rwandan deployment may be a remedy for this during operations after the rains. Ancuabe was added to their areas of responsibility in January, which may act as a bulwark to the south, while they have been patrolling heavily in Chai area in the past week. A weakness may be poor coordination between the RDF, FADM, and the South African contingent in Macomia with the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM).

Risk lies to the southwest, and the north. The insurgents seem comfortable to the southwest of the Messalo river in Montepuez district. In November last year, their route back north took them through Montepuez, after a campaign conducted in Ancuabe, Namuno, and Balama districts. Attacks last month indicate they are still comfortable there. The RDF in Ancuabe will give potential cover in that area, but by pulling the blanket over their head, they may just expose their feet.

For the same reason, and mindful of the continuing threat in that district, the RDF may be reluctant to stretch forces in Mocímboa da Praia to cover any move into Muidumbe. Otherwise, movement north from the Messalo river will only be effectively contained if there is adequate coordination with SAMIM’s Botswana contingent in Mueda, and the Lesotho and Tanzanian forces in Nangade.

Weekly Round-Up

Nyusi in Saudi Arabia

President Filipe Nyusi concluded a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia from 3 to 5 March. While the headline issues were agriculture, infrastructure, and energy, sources say that Cabo Delgado was one of the principal topics discussed.

Amongst the officials accompanying President Nyusi were four of the Mozambican Muslim community’s most prominent figures. These included Sheikh Aminnudin Muhammad, president of the Islamic Council of Mozambique, Salimo Omar, who heads the Mohammedan Community, businessman Inusso Ismael, and lawyer Abdul Carimo.

Saudi Arabia, and other Arab states, have had considerable influence on the practice of Islam in Mozambique. Wahhabi interpretations of the faith have spread across east Africa, including in Mozambique, since the 1970s and often by clerics educated in Saudi Arabia. Research has shown a link between Wahhabi clerics with funding from organizations in the Gulf region and the movement based in mosques and madrasas that fomented the insurgency, particularly in its early days.

Concern about how to address the insurgency is driving closer relations with Middle Eastern states over the past year, according to diplomatic sources. The hope is that their historical influence can be leveraged in Muslim communities, as well as their experience in counter-terrorism. President Nyusi met with the Amir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani, and last year met with King Abdullah of Jordan during the Aqaba Process meetings. While President Nyusi was in Riyadh, Minister for National Defense Cristóvão Chume was in the United Arab Emirates to sign agreements on military, security, and counter-terrorism cooperation with his counterpart Mohamed bin Ahmed al-Bowardi. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Adriano Maleiane is currently in Doha until 9 March to represent President Nyusi at the fifth United Nations (UN) Conference for the Least Developed Countries. The Middle East is becoming increasingly important in the equation of Mozambican foreign policy, and in how to respond to Cabo Delgado.

IOM announces support to community policing in northern Mozambique

The First Regional Conference on Community Policing was held in Pemba from 28 February to 1 March, supported by the International Organization for Migration (IOM). It gathered police, district and provincial officials from Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa. The event was part of a program of support to the police in northern Mozambique in place since March 2021.

Where community policing will sit in the security matrix is not yet clear. It has been reported that existing “community policing forums” have developed into Local Forces. Such reporting may oversimplify a complex set of relationships at the community level. Recent legislative amendments to bring Local Forces under the control of the FADM rather than the police may be tested in this environment.

Mozambique LNG to restart in July, says contractor, with humanitarian report still pending

A report into the humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado, prepared by veteran French diplomat and humanitarian Jean-Christophe Rufin, should by now have been delivered to TotalEnergies. TotalEnergies insists its decision on whether to restart the liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, mothballed since an insurgent attack in March 2021, will depend on the outcome of the report.

However, the main contractor on the project, Italy’s Saipem, said last week that it has been told by TotalEnergies that work will restart in July – suggesting TotalEnergies has preempted the report, unless it was delivered, and digested, ahead of schedule. Zitamar News quoted a TotalEnergies spokesperson last week saying that “the situation has not changed,” and that it would wait for Rufin’s report.

This is not the first time TotalEnergies has commissioned an independent human rights report for one of its projects. In 2021, the company commissioned Michel Forst, a former Special Rapporteur for the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, to provide an independent report on the situation of human rights defenders in Uganda. The report, along with a series of recommended actions, was published on TotalEnergies’ website.

Mozambique takes Security Council chair, to focus on countering terrorism

Mozambique took the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council (UNSC) on 1 March, intending to focus on fighting “terrorism.” The theme comes in the wake of a recent report to the UNSC highlighting the growing threat that Islamic State (IS) poses in southern and central Africa.

Mozambique's presidency will last for a month and will culminate with a debate on “Combating terrorism and violent extremism,” to be chaired by President Nyusi on 28 March. Mozambique's presidency of the UNSC is being effusively celebrated by pro-government media in Mozambique. On 6 March, for example, the Frelimo-owned newspaper Público wrote about it under the headline: “The world [is] in Mozambique’s hands.”

Designated IS financier allegedly kidnapped by the South African state

In March 2022, the United States government designated Farhad Hoomer, Siraaj Miller, Abdella Hussein Abadigga, and Peter Charles Mbaga, all in South Africa, as “ISIS organizers and financial facilitators,” specifically for supporting “Islamic State Mozambique.” According to papers presented in court last week in South Africa, Mbaga disappeared a few days later, and Hoomer has reported numerous attempts on his life.

The papers are part of a case brought before South Africa’s High Court by Abdella Hussein Abadigga’s brother, Abdurahim Hussein Abadiga, demanding the state reveal the whereabouts of his brother. In evidence presented to the court, he claims that his brother was abducted in a shopping mall on 29 December 2022 by South African National Defence Force (SANDF) operatives.

The judge ruled that four of the defendants should explain to the court the whereabouts of Abadiga. By Friday, only the Ministry of Defence had responded, their lawyer denying that SANDF had any knowledge of the incident. No other responses have been submitted yet.

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