Cabo Ligado Weekly: 3-9 April 2023

Apr 12

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-April 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 7 April 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events. ACLED is a living dataset and figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Total number of political violence events: 1,623
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,658
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,000

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

The combination of the wet season, lean season, and Ramadan continues to effectively pause the conflict, as there were almost no sightings of insurgents last week. The only reported instances of violence were committed by government security forces. One source in Ancuabe claimed that the police Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) based in Salaue, near Metoro, regularly beat and abduct civilians, subject them to forced labor, and harass married women, often under the influence of alcohol. At a public meeting last week, locals called for the UIR to withdraw, the source said. Meanwhile, in Nangade town on 6 April, police kidnapped two traders without justification and later released them.

Incidents such as these will surely strain an already tense relationship between civilians and security forces. Distrust of the Mozambican authorities in Mocímboa da Praia district has become so critical that the Rwandans have taken over many of the essential responsibilities of the state in the area, including enforcing law and order and implementing infrastructure projects. One local source told Cabo Ligado last week that people feel like they are being governed by Rwanda.

About 500 people returned en masse to Miangelewa in Muidumbe district last week, after civilians abandoned the area in April 2020 following a massacre perpetrated by the insurgents, Notícias reported. There are almost no functioning public services in the area, like schools, health centers, or running water. Frelimo party members have provided some basic agricultural equipment like hoes, machetes, and rakes so returning civilians can start cultivating crops once again. Brigadier General Rose Keravuori, the deputy director of intelligence for the United States Africa Command, said in an interview in January that without basic services and governmental structures, it will be hard for security forces to hold areas cleared of insurgents. The Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) is reportedly preparing to establish a military position at Miangelewa to protect the returning population, one source claimed.

In Mocímboa da Praia town, two insurgents appeared outside the Catholic church and asked to convert to Christianity, Pinnacle News reported. One of the insurgents, named Assumane Anli, had approached the church two weeks earlier asking for protection and, this time, brought a fellow fighter who wanted to surrender, according to Pinnacle News. Anli promised to return to the church with more fighters. The credibility of this report has not been established.

In the village of Quelimane, just north of Mocímboa da Praia town, two insurgents called the Rwandan hotline to surrender on 9 April, one source told Cabo Ligado. The RDF immediately drove out to their location and took them into custody, according to the source.

Weekly Focus: War is Over?

“There are clear signs that the war is over,” stated a Pinnacle News report on Facebook on 4 April. The report accompanied footage taken near Xitaxi of people returning to Miangelewa from Macomia district and other parts of Muidumbe district. The clip was filmed by Local Forces members wearing the Naparama symbol of red scarves. “Welcome to Miangelewa,” the clearly optimistic Local Forces members repeated happily in Makonde language.

Pinnacle News gave a number of reasons to think the conflict might be over. It firstly claims that insurgents from that area have announced that they will no longer attack, and that the returnees themselves testify that “there has been no slaughter.” Pinnacle News also points to insurgents handing themselves in to the military, particularly Rwandan forces, as well as their recent practice of openly approaching communities to buy food, as signs that they wish to reintegrate. Pinnacle News also claims that the insurgency’s finance and logistics networks have been cut, and arms caches have been uncovered, thanks to intelligence from those who have surrendered.

Testimony from returnees to Miangelewa that there has been “no slaughter” is in line with ACLED data for violence targeting civilians in Macomia and Muidumbe districts. There have been just four recorded incidents of violence targeting civilians in those two districts for January, February, and March 2023. This is the lowest recorded figure for violence targeting civilians in those two districts for these months since 2019. Nevertheless, at least one insurgent group remains active in Muidumbe. On 13 March, an armed clash between Mozambique’s Defense and Security Forces and insurgents was recorded near Miangelewa itself. Further west in the district, two IED attacks and two more armed clashes were recorded in the same month.

Pinnacle News’ claim that insurgents from the area have indicated that they will no longer attack maybe informs their interpretation of insurgents’ friendly approaches to villagers. It suggests that this is a means of ‘winning hearts and minds’ in preparation for return, rather than creating a conducive operating environment to continue the conflict. With insurgents active recently in Muidumbe, the latter seems more likely.

How many are handing themselves in is not clear, though just this week Cabo Ligado learned of one fighter who handed himself in on 9 April by directly communicating with the Rwandan forces by mobile phone. He had been in Quelimane village, less than 20 kilometers north of Mocímboa da Praia town.

The claim that supplies and finance networks have been disrupted is significant. There is no direct evidence of how these networks have operated. Sources indicate that early links to the informal gemstone mining sector may have been maintained in recent years, and that small businesses in Pemba have been contributing to the insurgency voluntarily. If funding has been mainly local, then disrupting the insurgency through targeted interventions against support networks would likely prove highly effective.

In the clip shared by Pinnacle News, Local Forces members urged others to also return “without fear.” Much is riding on their analysis. While the decrease in violence targeting civilians is welcome, there is no evidence that the insurgents have abandoned Muidumbe.

Weekly Round-Up

Renamo presses electoral authorities to exclude Mocímboa da Praia from municipal elections

Mozambique’s biggest opposition party Renamo continues to call for Mocímboa da Praia to be excluded from municipal elections in October as the Cabo Delgado Provincial Elections Commission begins its civic education drive in advance of voter registration next week. Voting is expected to be limited to the municipal area of Mocímboa da Praia town due to security risks, which Renamo claims violates a 2018 agreement that elections will take place throughout the district. The National Election Commission has not yet sent a team to assess the viability of holding elections in Mocímboa da Praia. Renamo argues that the concentration of government security forces will manipulate voting in Frelimo’s favor.

Meanwhile, Frelimo has put itself on an election footing, according to a local source. The first provincial secretary of the party has been holding rallies in Awasse and Mocímboa da Praia, despite police banning marches for deceased rapper Azagaia last month on security grounds. Party delegates have also been seen visiting villages in the district to mobilize supporters.

Government passes decree regulating Local Forces

Mozambique’s Council of Ministers last week approved a decree-law that will regulate the functioning of Local Forces. This concludes the process of legalizing the community militias that fight alongside the government in Cabo Delgado. The enactment of this document follows the approval last December of the law that incorporates Local Forces within the structure of the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces. The decree now approved defines Local Forces, their activation and deactivation, composition, how members can join and leave, and their rights and duties. The decree should be published shortly in the Boletim da República, the government gazette, at which point it will become law.

Namoto border post in Palma reopens

The Palma district government called a community meeting in early April at Quionga, close to the border with Tanzania, and announced the reopening of the border crossing across the Rovuma river at Namoto, a local source reported. The border was closed during the covid-19 pandemic and has since stayed closed due to the conflict. Last week, a provisional border control post was set up in tents. Small boats are now taking people across, while the regular ferry, the MV Kilambo, is brought back into operation. The formal reopening is set for 15 April, another source in Palma said.

The reopening should have a significant effect on the local economy, for which trade with southern Tanzania is a major activity. The crossing at Namoto is the only border post east of the bridge at Negomano, and sees a good deal more traffic, but Namoto links Palma directly to Mtwara town, an important market, and source of goods, for Palma, and Cabo Delgado more generally.

Police-organized football tournament kicks off in Nangade

A two-week football tournament in Nangade, organized by the Mozambican police and including teams representing the police, Local Forces, the Lesotho military, the Tanzanian military, the Mozambican military, and local football club Desportivo de Nangade, kicked off on 8 April. According to a schedule published by the police and circulating on social media, the last game will take place on 23 April.

The forward-looking event is indicative of stability in Nangade district headquarters at least.

Local tournaments in east Africa attract large crowds of mostly young men. Clearly, security forces in the district are confident that such gatherings will not present a security threat.

Japan to donate surveillance ship to Mozambique

The Japanese government has pledged to donate a coastal surveillance ship to Mozambique to aid “the fight against terrorism,” according to Mozambican Foreign Minister Veronica Macamo. She did not specify exactly what type of ship is being provided, but she noted that it is still under construction. Last week, Joaquim Manjate, an academic and general in the Mozambican armed forces, argued that Mozambique desperately needs to strengthen its maritime security to prevent piracy and hijackings around Cabo Delgado’s gas projects. South African Specialized Vessels Services is already providing maritime security to Eni’s Coral Sul offshore gas platform.

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