Cabo Ligado Weekly: 10-16 April 2023

Apr 19

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-April 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 14 April 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events. ACLED is a living dataset and figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Total number of political violence events: 1,623
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,658
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,000

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Last week saw the first fatal attack by insurgents in Cabo Delgado since 14 March. Insurgents assaulted two separate positions around the village of Miangalewa in Muidumbe district on 15 April, one occupied by the Mozambican Defense Armed Forces (FADM) and the other by Local Forces. At least one local militia member was killed, and up to four were wounded, but casualty figures are not yet confirmed. Insurgents also burned a truck, videos of which have circulated online. The Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) based around 8 kilometers away at Primeiro de Maio intervened, along with a helicopter dispatched from Mueda. The battle lasted for approximately three hours before the insurgents withdrew, according to one report.

The next day, Islamic State (IS)-affiliated news agency Amaq issued a report claiming responsibility for the attacks. The report also claimed the attackers fought with troops of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), killing one and injuring others, but this has not been substantiated by other sources.

Insurgents had been sighted in the area in the days prior to the attack. On 13 April, a Local Force patrol encountered a group of insurgents outside Litapata in Muidumbe, less than 15 km from Miangalewa, killing five of them while one escaped. The day before, insurgents had appeared in Mandava, another 15 km to the west, and shot a man in the hand while he was picking oranges, but he escaped and managed to get medical attention in Miteda village. Several days before the 15 April attack, insurgents infiltrated Miangalewa and tried to buy fish but fled when they were reported to the security forces.

Miangalewa has now been abandoned by the 500 civilians who had returned two weeks before.

Civilians from Nguida in Macomia district visited their homes last week and found recent traces of insurgent presence. There are reports that insurgents are still living in the forests between Nguida and the Messalo river, which is likely given the attacks in Mandava and Miangalewa, which are near the Messalo river.

Last week, IS Mozambique issued a martyrdom notice on social media for Mustafa al-Tanzani, thought to be an insurgent leader in Cabo Delgado. His nom de guerre implies he is from Tanzania, but little else is known about his identity. A study by the Center for Democracy and Development (CDD) in Mozambique reported in October 2022 that a senior IS member named ‘Mustafa’ was active in western Macomia, but it is not clear if the two are the same.

Weekly Focus: Miangalewa Attack

The Miangalewa attack on 15 April highlighted a number of issues that will remain relevant in this phase of the conflict. While the insurgents have been quiet, they still retain the capacity to make pointed political statements through their actions on the ground, and media statements from IS. Operationally, it offered further evidence that Operation Vulcão IV did not succeed in permanently dislodging insurgents from Muidumbe district. Coming soon after a movement of displaced people back to Miangalewa, it illustrates the challenge there will be in supporting return elsewhere in Muidumbe district, and in northern Macomia district.

The return of people is fundamental to reestablishing state authority, so active support of such return movements by Frelimo is no surprise. The initial return to Miangalewa was supported by the party, which donated agricultural tools to returnees in both Miangalewa and nearby Xitaxi village. First Secretary of the Provincial Committee of Frelimo, Jose Kalime, oversaw the distribution of the items.

Coming just two weeks after Kalime’s visit where he called for more people to return, the 15 April attack undermines Frelimo’s credibility. The speed with which IS media issued detailed reports of the incident suggests this may have been deliberate. A detailed Amaq News Agency report issued within 24 hours reported that “the simultaneous attacks came days after the Christians began returning to the village after the Mozambican government and its militias deluded them into establishing security.” The report also referred to “enemy media” reporting that the war is over. This likely refers to a 4 April report on Pinnacle News that opened with that assertion.

Returnees’ flight approximately two weeks after first arriving home will make it harder for the state to persuade people to return, and thus reestablish authority, elsewhere in Cabo Delgado. The Miangalewa attack took place in a relatively well-defended area, with active Local Forces, a FADM outpost, and a nearby RDF outpost. This suggests that holding territory and sustaining return in the rest of Muidumbe as well as in northern Macomia district will be a significant challenge. Frelimo’s interest in returning civilians to Miangalewa reflects the concomitant political challenge.

Weekly Round-Up

South Africa extends mission in Cabo Delgado by another year

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has extended the South African National Defence Force’s deployment in Cabo Delgado until 15 April 2024. The deployment comprises 1,495 soldiers as part of the SADC Mission in Mozambique and will cost nearly 1 billion rand (54.18 million US dollars). The mission will continue to “support the Republic of Mozambique to combat acts of terrorism and violent extremists affecting the northern areas of Mozambique under Operation VIKELA,” Ramaphosa told the South African National Assembly.

Mosques in Mocímboa da Praia reopened for morning prayers

Authorities in Mocímboa da Praia have lifted a ban on the opening of mosques at dawn, which had been in place for two years on security grounds. Muslims in the town are currently preparing to celebrate their first Eid al-Fitr since returning after the town was retaken by government forces in August 2021. The Rwandans and the Police of the Republic of Mozambique indicated that the reopening of madrasas might soon follow, according to a local source.

CDD study finds “uncoordinated” response to extremism in Cabo Delgado

A report last week from the CDD in Mozambique found that the lack of coordination between the humanitarian, development, and peace sectors in Cabo Delgado has undermined the response to violent extremism. Based on two months of field research in Mocímboa da Praia, the CDD found that humanitarian and development organizations tend to see each other as competitors for resources rather than potential partners and collaborators, while military actors are too reticent to share intelligence with non-military actors. The report also points to corruption as a major impediment to combating extremism, accusing influential groups such as Frelimo veterans’ organization, the Association of Combatants of the National Liberation Struggle, of using their leverage to channel aid disproportionately to their members and relatives.

Boys escaping from insurgent captivity ostracized on return home, government study finds

Young boys abducted by insurgents and used as child soldiers are often rejected by their communities when they manage to escape and return home, according to a study conducted by the Cabo Delgado Provincial Service of Social Affairs. These boys tend to be regarded with suspicion, while girls are usually viewed as victims and welcomed back into the community.

India and Mozambique to expand counter-terrorism cooperation

India and Mozambique will strengthen collaboration on strategic areas such as the fight against terrorism, said the Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar following a visit to Mozambique last week. Jaishankar was in Mozambique from 13 to 15 April and met with President Filipe Nyusi and other senior government figures. No details of this collaboration were announced, but India has previously gifted two Fast Interceptor Crafts to the Mozambican security forces, which were formally launched in May last year by Indian Deputy National Security Advisor Vikram Misri while visiting the country. India also carried out joint maritime surveillance activities in the Mozambique channel with France in May and November 2022 to help combat piracy and drug trafficking.

Warehouse storing seized drugs burns down in Pemba

A warehouse in Pemba containing 80 kilograms of drugs seized by the Mozambican National Criminal Investigation Service burned down on Friday 14 April. The Pemba fire department extinguished the flames, but the cause and extent of the damage are still unknown. The drugs, which included 42 kg of cocaine, 34 kg of amphetamines, and four kg of heroin, were confiscated in Metuge and are thought to have been bound for Nampula from Comoros.

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