Cabo Ligado Update: 5-18 August 2024

Situation Summary

The Rwandan offensive in Macomia district launched at the end of July has continued into August, with aerial bombing concentrated on the coastal administrative post of Mucojo. The Rwanda Security Forces are also committing troops around the N380 highway to confront Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) insurgents moving west to escape the offensive. Other small groups of insurgents have continued to operate in the districts of Mocímboa da Praia and Nangade.

Mucojo has been under repeated rounds of bombardments by Rwandan helicopters since the start of the offensive. On 8 August, a source reported that Mucojo was “in ashes” due to the intensity of aerial attacks, raising fears of civilian casualties. On 16 August, Mucojo was bombed once again, with local sources reporting that many civilians had sought refuge in Macomia town. Some civilians were said to be fearful of reprisals by government troops once they take back control of the coast and are fleeing from the advancing security forces. By 16 August, hundreds of troops of the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces had been deployed to Ibo island, over 30 kilometers south of Mucojo, possibly in advance of another phase of the offensive.

Despite the offensive, a small group of insurgents on the night of 8 August managed to infiltrate the Nanga neighborhood of Macomia town, the base of Rwandan forces in the district and burned a car, spreading panic throughout the community. The Islamic State (IS) newspaper Al Naba published a photo of an insurgent posing in front of the burning car with an IS flag. More insurgents were seen moving west across the N380 around the village of Nova Zambezia in Macomia on 12 August. Four days later, Rwandan troops were deployed to Chai, approximately 15 km north of Nova Zambezia on the N380.

Insurgents are also fighting back by mining key roads with IEDs. On 7 August, a civilian woman was killed after her car triggered an IED on the road between Chinda and Mbau in Mocímboa da Praia. IS claimed the vehicle was being used by the military but there is no evidence for this. On 9 August, a driver with the police Rapid Intervention Unit was killed when he drove over an IED in a Mahindra truck between Chinda and Xitaxi on the N380 in Muidumbe district. Another police officer was also badly injured.

Off the coast of Mocímboa da Praia, insurgents kidnapped around 70 fishermen in three trawlers on 9 August. They were taken to Quiterajo in Macomia, where they were held by men some fishermen recognized as acquaintances and relatives from Mocímboa da Praia. After three days they were released unharmed with their fish, with no ransom being paid. The fishermen claimed there were Tanzanians among the insurgents, they had several bases in the Catupa forest, and they were seen driving vehicles stolen from Macomia town in May. The insurgents also reportedly confessed to the fishermen that they had suffered losses in the recent offensive.

Insurgents still have not been driven out of Nangade district, despite several clashes with local and Tanzanian forces in recent weeks. On 12 August, insurgents entered the village of Chitama, approximately 30 km from Nangade town, and asked for food. One source reported that insurgents fired shots into the air to intimidate the local population.

Focus: Rwanda’s airborne campaign

A feature of the current campaign against ISM in Macomia district is the sustained use of helicopters in combat. Since 29 July, ACLED data show the deployment of helicopters at least seven times in battles with ISM or in airstrikes against their positions. Helicopters were involved in five events in the final three days of July alone. Cabo Ligado understands that these are Rwanda Defence Force helicopters, a number of which have been only recently deployed in the province. The use of air power is a significant shift in Rwandan tactics in Cabo Delgado. It comes with some risks that thus far Rwanda seems to be avoiding. 

Since their first deployment in July 2021, Rwandan forces have relied in combat on small-unit, mobile infantry that is better equipped, better trained, and more skilled than their host country counterparts, or ISM. In addition to this, they have invested in community relations through formal civil-military cooperation initiatives, such as providing health services. This approach adheres to Kigali Principles, designed to guide behavior in peacekeeping operations, and in which Rwanda is strategically invested. 

Use of combat helicopters is a significant departure from this approach. There is a risk that Rwandan airborne operations will lead to significant casualties, or the perception thereof. In 2020 and 2021, The Dag Advisory Group (DAG) was contracted by Mozambique’s Ministry of Home Affairs to provide combat air support to Mozambican forces. In that period, there were over 500 reported fatalities in 52 actions involving DAG. FADM and DAG were accused of being indiscriminate in operations, though DAG denied accusations of more widespread recklessness, though acknowledged that civilians may have been killed in their operations. Rwanda already runs the risk of such accusations. Civilians fleeing operations around Mucojo have alleged civilian casualties in the operation. 

The reason for the change in tactics is unclear. According to security sources, a considerable number of IEDs have been uncovered in Macomia district in recent weeks. Successful deployment of IEDs would hinder state forces' movement. There may also be political pressure to move more quickly against ISM now that they appear to be isolated on the coast, and in Catupa forest bases. However, in the short term, air assets will only be effective if backed up by infantry operations that can hold cleared territory. Sustaining any success achieved will then depend on Mozambican authorities committing to rebuilding social infrastructure.

Round Up

Ibraimo Mbaruco disappearance case closed

The Provincial Prosecutor’s Office of Cabo Delgado province has formally closed the investigation into the April 2020 disappearance of journalist Ibraimo Mbaruco. Mbaruco disappeared on the evening of 7 April 2020, having left the offices of Palma Community Radio, where he worked as a journalist. In his last communication, a text message to a friend, he said that he was “surrounded by military forces.” According to the Provincial Prosecutor’s Office, requests to military authorities in Palma, and mobile phone companies gave no leads on the circumstances of his disappearance, or his whereabouts. 

Mozambique claims progress on FATF actions

Mozambique may be removed from the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) when the FATF Plenary and Working Group meetings are held in October in Paris. According to Luis Cezerilo, the deputy director of the Financial Intelligence Office, Mozambique has made significant progress in implementing FATF recommendations. He expects Mozambique to be either removed from the list, or given an extended deadline to comply. ‘Grey list’ refers to countries under increased monitoring from FATF to address strategic deficiencies in their frameworks to address money laundering and terrorism financing.

NGOs criticize changes to electoral law

The More Integrity consortium of election observers criticized recent electoral law amendments which remove district courts' power to order vote recounts. Instead, recounts will be overseen behind closed doors by the National Election Commission and approved by the Constitutional Council, Mozambique’s supreme court. This change follows controversy from last year's local elections, where district courts overturned some results. The consortium advocates for district and appeal courts to handle election disputes, with the Constitutional Council only addressing constitutional issues.

EU observers to monitor general election

The European Union has announced the deployment of an Election Observation Mission to Mozambique for the general election on 9 October, following an invitation from Mozambique's National Election Commission. Laura Ballarin Cereza, a Spanish socialist Member of the European Parliament, will lead the mission. Observers will arrive in August and stay until the election process is completed, producing a report with recommendations for the conduct of future elections.

Defense ministry officials investigated for embezzlement

Senior officials from Mozambique’s Ministry of National Defence are under investigation for embezzling MZN52.3 million ($826 thousand) by transferring funds to companies without proper tenders or contracts, citing military urgency. Armed forces accounts are kept separate from other government departments on the basis of national security, facilitating corruption schemes.