By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-June 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 16 June 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events. ACLED is a living dataset and figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Total number of political violence events: 1,650
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,695
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,010

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Last week was exceptionally quiet in Cabo Delgado. One source reported continued insurgent activity along the Macomia coast, specifically in the area around Ntoni, which has led some fishermen to abandon the area for Pemba or Macomia district headquarters. On 13 June, Valige Taubo, the governor of Cabo Delgado, visited nearby Pangane village, which insurgents have regularly visited since February, and encouraged local people to resume their normal lives.

Security forces have been criticized for failing to pursue insurgents in this area, but on 19 June, a joint operation comprising the Mozambican Defense Armed Forces (FADM) and the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) was launched around Pequeue, about 15 kilometers north of Ntoni. Insurgents are known to have been in Pequeue as recently as 7 June. The joint operation will complement SAMIM patrols that are ongoing around Mucojo, just south of Pangane.

Weekly Focus: Security Force Indiscipline Challenges Return and Reconstruction

The death last week in Mocímboa da Praia town of a teacher has further contributed to existing dissatisfaction about the security forces in the town. Such incidents of violence against civilians by state forces are not novel. However, in the context of reduced insurgent activity, and the increasing return of displaced people, these incidents present a significant challenge to the Mozambican state. Firstly, they present a challenge to the state to maintain basic security in areas of return. Secondly, it makes more urgent the need for security sector reform, particularly the integration of Local Forces into the FADM, as has been legislated for. Failure in these areas runs the risk of insurgents successfully embedding themselves in communities, as we see them attempting in Macomia.

According to a source in Mocímboa da Praia town, a public meeting was held in Pamunda neighborhood, where the teacher died, on 10 June. The source speaks of a ‘campaign’ having started under the slogan “Majeshi Atiwasaka,” meaning “we don’t want the forces,” referring to police and army forces in Kimwani language.

ACLED data show three incidents of violence against civilians by Mozambican state forces in Mocímboa da Praia town since the beginning of the year. Two lives have been claimed in these incidents. Locally, the perception is that the rate is much higher. One speaker at the 10 June meeting claimed that up to 10 people had died in such a way since their return to the town. As return began in earnest in October 2022, he was likely referring back to that time. The challenge in providing basic security in the town is high. Of the almost 104,000 returnees in the district, 68% were living in district headquarters, by the time of the International Organization for Migration’s April Assessment. The vast majority of those have returned since October last year.

FADM has, at least at a senior level, recognized that relations with communities in the province need to be improved significantly. At a conference last year at the Higher Institute for Defense Studies, one officer spoke of their lack of understanding of cultural norms in the country’s north. He also spoke of FADM’s lack of understanding of communities, and how “the enemy is hardly distinguishable from the civilian population.”

In the current phase of the conflict, this disconnect with communities challenges security sector reform. A decree-law approved in April enables the incorporation of Local Forces into the FADM. Yet recent disagreements between the police’s Rapid Intervention Unit and the Naparama militia in Ancuabe district, and between FADM and Local Forces in Miangelewa in Muidumbe district, indicate such reform will not come easy. Local Forces and the Naparama militia share the characteristics of language and culture of the north of the country that FADM, with troops drawn from the south, can find difficult to interpret and engage with.

This leaves citizens with unenviable decisions to make. The ongoing approaches made by insurgents to communities in coastal areas of Macomia force recent returnees to risk being seen as collaborators by state forces. Those same forces provide limited protection against insurgents. Potential returnees to coastal Macomia, who raised such concerns with the district administrator, were advised to deal with insurgents themselves.

Weekly Round-Up

OMR report indicates levels of conflict trauma in the community

The Rural Environment Observatory’s (OMR) most recent report examines the humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado province. Perhaps its most striking findings concern the personal impact of the conflict on people across the province. OMR’s survey was conducted in Chiure, Metuge, Mocímboa da Praia, Metuge, and Palma districts. Overall, 43% of respondents reported a family member “murdered,” 34% reported at least one family member “abducted,” while 18% reported “missing” family.

Figures for those with “murdered” and “missing” family members were considerably higher around Afungi. At Monjane, also spelled Mondlane, the respective figures were 57% and 34% of respondents, respectively. In this way, the study reveals the considerable and long-lasting impact of the conflict on individuals, families, and communities.

These figures are not directly comparable with those released by British journalist Alex Perry last month. OMR’s figures cover the whole conflict, while Perry’s cover the fighting in Palma in March 2021, and its aftermath. OMR’s figures also specifically include family losses at the hands of the Defense and Security Forces.

Fishing and coffee flourish in Ibo district

The district of Ibo in Cabo Delgado has had a successful first quarter of 2023, catching 1,726 tons of fish, representing 51% of its annual target. Farmers have also sown 33 hectares of coffee – 67% of their target and 4% more than the previous year.

The figures were presented by District Administrator Issa Tarmamade at the meeting of the Provincial Executive Council of Cabo Delgado, held in Pemba on 15 June. While official figures may sometimes be viewed with suspicion, Ibo district has been relatively peaceful, and in a position to achieve some development. The most recent incident of political violence there recorded in ACLED data was in March 2022.

Café do Ibo was among the brands presented by Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Celso Correia in London last week, where he formally signed Mozambique up as a member of the International Coffee Organization, a club of coffee exporters and major importers.

Coffee production on Ibo is being supported by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the Illy Foundation, the Ministry of Agriculture, and a local producers’ association.

Defense minister and army chief of staff clash

Tensions between the Mozambique Minister for National Defense Cristóvão Chume, and the army chief of staff, Joaquim Rivas Mangrasse, are reportedly hampering military operations in Cabo Delgado. Mangrasse often refuses to implement Chume’s decisions and regularly misses sessions of the defense ministry’s advisory council, according to Africa Intelligence.

Tanzania preventing opening of Namoto border, police chief says

Contrary to earlier reports, it appears the Namoto border crossing in Palma district still has not fully reopened. Mozambique’s police chief, Bernardino Rafael, has said the reopening depends on Tanzanian authorities, which still have not provided the green light despite all the necessary infrastructure being in place on the Mozambican side. On the Tanzania side, the border is not operational, if only because the access road to the Kilambo border crossing was badly damaged by the recent rains, according to a local source. Until the border is officially reopened, traders from Palma will have to use the Negomano border crossing in Mueda district.

Cabo Ligado Weekly: 12-18 June 2023