By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-June 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 9 June 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events. ACLED is a living dataset and figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Total number of political violence events: 1,647
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,693
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,008

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

While insurgents continue to harass communities in Macomia and Muidumbe districts, the only confirmed civilian killing last week was committed by security forces: a teacher named Arlindo Camisa who was killed in the Pamunda neighborhood of Mocímboa da Praia on 9 June. Carta de Moçambique reported that he was run over by a military vehicle, but a source told Cabo Ligado he was shot by the police Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) following an argument in which two others were also killed.

In Ancuabe district, tensions between UIR and the Naparama militia came to the fore as UIR members refused to enforce the Naparama’s 11 pm curfew on businesses, arguing they have no authority to impose orders on the security forces. This issue was raised at a meeting between the Naparama, UIR, and Mozambican Defense Armed Forces in Salaue village on 12 June to assess the UIR’s conduct in the area. Allegations of UIR brutality against innocent civilians were also discussed, and police representatives promised to investigate all instances of wrongdoing, a local source claimed.

Meanwhile, violent insurgent activity continues around the Messalo river basin. Armed insurgents appeared next to a small lake near Miangalewa on 5 June, firing their weapons and scaring off some fishermen. The insurgents then stole their fish and other belongings.

That same day, approximately 20 kilometers southeast in Chitoio, Macomia district, graves containing the bodies of three missing individuals, including a seven-year-old child, were discovered, Lusa reported. The victims were part of a group from Chitoio who went missing in early May.

Along the Macomia coast, near the village of Ilala, a minibus was stopped and searched by insurgents looking for security forces also on 5 June, according to Carta. There were reportedly two soldiers on board, but they were not identified as the driver had hidden their weapons. The bus was eventually allowed to continue, and no one was hurt. Meanwhile, in contrast, security forces reduced escorts on the N380 road between Macomia district headquarters and Mucojo last week, a source told Cabo Ligado.

Insurgents were also sighted around the coastal village of Pequeue in Macomia on 7 June. One source claimed an insurgent died of unknown causes near the village that day, and his comrades borrowed a bier, a stretcher to bear the deceased to the grave, from a local mosque, which they later returned.

A team from the National Criminal Investigation Service has been deployed in Macomia district headquarters since 6 June, according to a local source. Their objective is to investigate alleged collaboration between displaced families returning to their villages and the insurgents, but a source reports widespread concern that innocent civilians may be targeted. It has previously been reported that displaced families returning to Macomia have left their homes again for fear of being accused of collaborating with insurgents.

Weekly Focus: Governor Hails Ongoing Return

Cabo Delgado’s Governor Valige Tauabo used a tour of Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, and Muidumbe districts to highlight the ongoing return home of the displaced. Speaking to Pemba’s Zumbo FM, he stated that the official return figures of over 400,000 have likely been surpassed. His visit sent a strong message to a domestic and international audience that stability is being maintained. His visit may have been timed to contribute to the decision-making process on the resumption of TotalEnergies’ liquefied natural gas project.

The source for the governor’s figures is the latest assessment of displacement and return from the International Organization for Migration. The assessment, conducted in March 2023 through key informant and group interviews, indicates a 19% increase in the overall number of returnees. The March assessment indicated 420,200 returnees, compared to 352,437 in November 2022. This was matched by a fall in the recorded number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), which fell from 1,028,743 to 834,304 from November 2022 to March this year. As well as the report, a public dataset is to be made available soon.

Returnees are concentrated in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, which together account for approximately 50% of returnees in the March assessment. Such strong return to these two strategic districts is a function of improved security and incentives in place in those districts, but also of the difficulties faced by IDPs when they are away from home. Governor Tauabo raised these three issues during his tour. As reported by Zumbo FM, he pointed to the provision of food aid, materials for shelter and agricultural inputs, for returnees, amongst other supports. However, as noted by the Rural Environment Observatory in November 2022, the poor living conditions faced by IDPs are as much drivers of return as the limited incentives available. Reports received by Cabo Delgado this week suggest that aid for both returnees and IDPs remains inadequate. According to a source in Nangade, food aid remains inadequate at the center for displaced people in the district headquarters, while efforts to support IDPs to grow their own food have still not seen positive results. For returnees, too, receiving aid that arrives can be problematic. Another source in Mocímboa da Praia told of a melee at a food distribution in the town last week that was only settled by the intervention of Rwandan troops.

The challenges were touched on by Governor Tauabo himself in Mbau in Mocímboa da Praia district, where he recognized the damage done to basic infrastructure and the challenge that presents to returnees. At the same time, his presence in Mbau, long a stronghold of the insurgency, indicates confidence, or at least hope, that security can be sustained.

However, perhaps the most striking figure in the report is the extent to which the burden of displacement is borne by communities themselves across the province, though most notable in Pemba, Metuge, and Mueda districts. Overall, the assessment recorded that 65% of IDPs are hosted by communities, and just 35% are housed in displacement centers.

Weekly Round-Up

Over 1,300 killed in 2021 Palma attack, survey finds

Up to 1,357 people were killed or went missing after the March 2021 attack on Palma by Islamic State-affiliated insurgents, according to research led by British journalist Alex Perry. A team comprising six surveyors and three supervisors spent five months visiting over 13,600 homes in Palma and the surrounding villages gathering data on who had been killed and the manner of their deaths. The Bishop of Pemba, Antonio Juliasse, has asked the government to declare a day of national mourning in response to Perry’s claim.

Egypt promises to provide special forces training in Mozambique

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi have reached an agreement on security cooperation, with Egypt promising to train Mozambican special forces in the fight against terrorism, according to an AIM press release. Egypt has considerable military experience and has been fighting its own Islamic State-affiliated insurgency in the Sinai peninsula since 2014. Egyptian military cooperation with FRELIMO dates back to the Mozambican war of liberation. Al-Sisi also said Egypt would be willing to provide religious education in Mozambique to counter the spread of extremist preaching. Nyusi has recently visited a slew of Middle Eastern countries, including Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, apparently in an attempt to court Muslim countries where extremist networks are known to exist.

Cabo Delgado reconstruction “satisfactory,” says provincial governor

Governor Valige Tauabo has reported that the province is at a “satisfactory” stage of reconstruction in the districts affected by the insurgency. In an interview with Zumbo FM, Tauabo mentioned ongoing efforts to rebuild and rehabilitate economic and social infrastructures, including the rehabilitation of buildings, installation of water supply systems, and road rehabilitation. Infrastructure rehabilitation projects are also underway in Palma, Macomia, and Quissanga districts, such as the rehabilitation of the local airstrip and solar power systems.

Cabo Ligado Weekly: 5-11 June 2023