By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-June 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 23 June 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events. ACLED is a living dataset and figures are subject to change as new information becomes available.

Total number of political violence events: 1,652
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,698
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,013

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

The Mozambique Defense and Security Forces (FDS) appeared to escalate their counter-insurgency operations along the Macomia coast last week. Civilians in the villages of Pequeué, Milamba, Ingoane, Quiterajo, and Pangane were ordered on 19 June to evacuate to make way for FDS, Rwandan, and South African forces. On 20 June, security forces imposed restrictions on bringing food into Quiterajo to prevent collaborators from feeding insurgents. At least one man was turned back to Macomia district headquarters for carrying 25 bags of rice. The next day, all travel to Mucojo from Macomia town was blocked, reportedly to prevent insurgents from accessing supplies, according to one local source.

Large movements of insurgents have been sighted just north of Mucojo. Families in the area have reported missing young men, and it is thought they have joined the insurgency, one local source told Cabo Ligado.

Meanwhile, insurgents were detected moving from west to east about 4 kilometers south of Chai in Macomia, heading toward the coast, according to a local source.

Further north in Mocímboa da Praia district, at least one other group of insurgent fighters continues to operate. On the night of 21 June, a number of insurgents, reportedly led by a 24-year-old man named Chissano Andulahi Sualeh, entered Kalugo village, approximately 30 km south of Mocímboa da Praia town, bought food and clothing, and cooked for themselves, a local source claimed. The group left at around midnight and did not hurt anyone.

In Mocímboa da Praia town, graffiti appeared last week in a mosque depicting the Islamic State (IS) flag, accompanied by a message inciting violence against non-believers, and citing particular verses of Quran. It is not yet known who was responsible.

Weekly Focus: What is Meant by ‘Hearts and Minds’?

Since September 2022, the number of political violence events recorded by ACLED in Cabo Delgado has declined considerably. This was initially attributed to the rains. Ramadan closed the rainy season, and Eid el-Fitr on 21 April did not signal a change in the pattern of conflict. With no signs of disruption to the leadership, and reports of ongoing contacts between insurgents in Cabo Delgado and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC – see Weekly Round-Up), this seems to be a time of reorganization, reliance on dogma for justification, and cash for incentives.

Central to this has been the ‘hearts and minds’ approach taken by the insurgents, particularly in the coastal areas of Macomia district, but also in evidence in Nangade district where at least one approach has been made to civilians. It also reached Mocímboa da Praia town last week, as noted in the situation summary.

The term, ‘hearts and minds’ captures the non-violent nature of their propagandizing, and how they provide communities with opportunities to benefit from cooperation with them through trade. The approach does not necessarily indicate a weakening of violent jihadism as an organizing dogma. Communities thus continue to live under threat.

The approach first became evident to remote observers in the second half of last year, with the distribution of handwritten leaflets to communities. In October 2022, a handwritten note was left at the scene of an attack at Ntoli, in Nangade district. This note drew clear lines between those who ascribe to their jihadist dogma, and those who oppose them, or collaborate with the security forces. A second note distributed in November laid out three options for civilians: submission to Islam, payment of tax, or endless war. These echoed similar conditions laid down in DRC not long before, and in the same week in the IS newsletter, al-Naba. According to one report from October 2022, this followed instructions from IS leadership given at a meeting in June or July 2022 in South Kivu in DRC. This, and other meetings, are corroborated in the most recent United Nations Group of Experts report on DRC.

Recent outreach in coastal communities has stressed Islam as a unifying identity. At the start of Ramadan, residents of Quiterajo were urged to fast and pray during the month. Towards the end of the month, in Ntoli village, visiting insurgents again appealed for adherence to Muslim practice. They also promised that there would be no more killing of civilians, under what they termed was a new leadership. These visits have also seen insurgents making considerable purchases, to the point where limits have had to be put on basic food supplies being trucked to coastal villages from Macomia district.

There is thought to have been a change in leadership in the first quarter of the year, with a figure known as Ulanga being appointed overall leader, and religious leader, and Ibn Omar remaining as operational commander. However, earlier attempts at outreach indicate that this approach predates Ulanga’s appointment, and suggest a measure of strategic direction coming from outside Cabo Delgado, and some resilience in the leadership in the province.

Weekly Round-Up

UN Experts Group report on DRC documents Cabo Delgado links to DRC

The most recent report of the UN Experts Group on DRC documents Cabo Delgado’s place in IS financing networks, as well as ongoing, and recent, contacts between the province’s insurgents and ADF in DRC.

The report’s examination of financing networks is similar to that of the Bridgeway Foundation, reviewed by Cabo Ligado earlier in the month. The Experts Group report goes further, with reference to the Cabo Delgado leadership attending meetings held in South Kivu in DRC and Kigoma in Tanzania in June and August 2022, respectively. It claims a further meeting in South Kivu earlier this year.

As noted in our Weekly Focus, these contacts suggest that the lull in the conflict likely reflects a time of reorganization, with some strategic direction being received from outside.

Mozambique government still yet to receive Total human rights report, defense minister says

Mozambique Minister for National Defense Cristóvão Chume has claimed that the government has not yet received TotalEnergies’s human rights report on Cabo Delgado. The report produced by Jean-Christophe Rufin was published in English on 23 May, but a Portuguese version is not yet available. Chume disputed the notion, that some had ascribed to the Rufin report, that Mozambique has ceded sovereignty in Cabo Delgado to TotalEnergies or Rwanda, affirming that both respect the jurisdiction of the Republic of Mozambique and its security forces.

Plexus Cotton sold to Portuguese textile company

Plexus Mozambique Limitada, a major cotton producer in Mozambique, has been sold with all its assets and liabilities to FESAP - Sociedade Agrícola e Pecuária Limitada, a subsidiary of Portuguese textile company Felpinter, saving at least 50,000 farmers in Cabo Delgado from potential ruin. Plexus claimed its chronic financial difficulties stemmed from the impact of the insurgency in northern Mozambique, the Covid-19 pandemic, and bureaucratic obstacles in Maputo. The cotton industry in Cabo Delgado supports at least 250,000 livelihoods, and there were concerns among humanitarian actors that its collapse could drive more youth toward the insurgency.

Journalists taken on surprise visit to Cabo Delgado

A large group of Mozambican and international journalists were taken on an unexpected press tour of Mocímboa da Praia on 23 June. The journalists were attending an event in Maputo to mark the closure of the last Renamo base but, on arrival, were invited to join an impromptu trip to Cabo Delgado province. In Mocímboa da Praia, defense minister Cristóvão Chume took questions from the press group, which included journalists from domestic outlets, such as Radio Moçambique, Savana, and STV, as well foreign media, including France24, Jornal de Angola, and Chinese state-owned CGTN.

Cabo Ligado Weekly: 19-25 June 2023