Cabo Ligado Weekly: 16-22 January 2023

Jan 24

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-January 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 20 January 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.

Total number of political violence events: 1,575
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,572
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,007

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Cabo Ligado has confirmed just one incident since 10 January. This has also been reflected in the pattern of Islamic State (IS) claims. Only one new claim has been issued by IS since 16 January, for a clash with Mozambican forces at Litandacua, in northern Macomia, which they claim took place on 22 January. The 16 January statement was a photo report of arms seized in the 10 January attack on a military outpost in Xitaxi, Muidumbe district. The 19 January edition of al-Naba, IS’s weekly publication, contained just one new report, claiming an attack on Mozambican forces in Macomia district on 11 January that could not be confirmed.

Local Forces in Muidumbe district saw some success last week. On 19 January, according to two sources, six insurgents were killed in Namacule village by members of Local Forces on patrol in Namacule village. Namacule was the scene of clashes between insurgents and Local Forces on 30 and 31 December, along with the nearby villages of Nampanha and Namande. According to a report, the six said they had been part of a larger group that had been broken up by Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM) operations and that their colleagues had made their way towards the Messalo river.

According to another source in Macomia, that second group wanted to cross the Messalo river to reach the Chombaindo area near Nkoe, where they are understood to have a base. The river being too high to ford, they moved west to find canoes to hire, rather than commandeer them. Some drowned in the crossing, according to our source. This is one of a number of unconfirmed reports received by Cabo Ligado over the past week, that indicate engagements north and south of the Messalo river between insurgents, and Mozambican and allied forces.

The rains that started in recent weeks will continue to affect insurgents’ movement. Both the Ruvuma and Messalo rivers are flowing now, which restricts the movements of groups of fighters across the province. One security source has speculated that the recent focus on attacks on military outposts rather than on civilians is an attempt to restock arms for this difficult period, and to give people time to plant in hope of future supplies. The offer to hire the canoes, rather than commandeer them, may also reflect a tactical decision to not disturb people in these areas, for now at least.

Pressure is being applied to the insurgents elsewhere too. The Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) is understood to be active in Pundanhar, in the west of Palma district. The Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) is understood to have been deployed since October to Mandimba, just 23 km west of Pundanhar, in Nangade district. The FADM, in joint operations with the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), appears to have successfully disrupted the insurgents’ Nkonga base, roughly 30 km south of Mandimba. An unconfirmed but detailed report describes the capture of three Tanzanian insurgents, and the surrender of one more over the past two weeks. They had been based in Nkonga, having been pushed out of a camp at Panjele, near Diaca in Mocímboa da Praia in mid-2022. As well as having short-term security objectives, these RDF and TPDF deployments are also of strategic importance. Road widening has been taking place in Palma and Nangade to improve the road linking Palma to Mueda district headquarters.

Weekly Focus: Rainy Season Operations

The rains make conditions harder for both sides, restricting movement as already difficult terrain becomes more challenging. There are also new coordination issues to be faced with Local Forces, now influenced by the Naparama movement. Currently, the most intense operations are in Macomia and Muidumbe districts. Conditions there present a challenge to FADM and SAMIM forces involved in Operation Vulcão IV, as well as the RDF.

Their conventional forces depend on armored convoys to get about. Unsurfaced roads and the thickening bush of the rainy season will make movement more difficult. Air assets could provide some support, but only a limited number of helicopters are available. One security source told Cabo Ligado this week that FADM has one Mi-8 and one Gazelle currently operational in the province. The former can effectively move over 20 troops, while the latter is more suited to surveillance. The source noted that they should have at least two more Gazelles, and two Mi-24s, but that these are not seen in the province. The South African contingent of SAMIM initially deployed with two Oryx helicopters, which was then seen as inadequate; however, Cabo Ligado understands that no more air assets have been deployed by South Africa.

Recent operations have also seen increased collaboration with Local Forces in the north, and possibly with Naparama militia in the south. The RDF is patrolling with Local Forces in Pundanhar, while in Ancuabe, there is an unconfirmed report of RDF patrolling with Naparama militia. These are sensible moves that allow RDF to draw on local knowledge, and may contribute to community acceptance of their presence. In Macomia, things have been more complicated for Operation Vulcão IV. Some Local Forces in the area have undergone the Naparama ritual. Whether this undermines their legitimacy in the eyes of the state, which is seeking to integrate them into the military, remains to be seen.

Weekly Round-Up

TotalEnergies funds Rádio Moçambique return to Palma and Mocímboa da Praia

TotalEnergies is financing the restoration of Rádio Moçambique’s transmission infrastructure in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia – meaning the state broadcaster can again speak directly to people in those districts. The signal repeaters were vandalized in insurgent attacks on the towns of Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, according to Rádio Moçambique Chairman Abdul Naguibo, who visited Palma to see how the project was advancing.

Naguibo said the Rádio Moçambique’s involvement in these districts would not be restricted to just broadcasting programs there, but would also see local youth produce programs that would be broadcast nationwide.

To that end, Rádio Moçambique has had a flurry of stories from Palma over recent days, including one about locals’ complaints over a lack of banking infrastructure (see below), and the need to reopen the Namoto border post to allow trade with Tanzania. District Administrator of Palma João Buchili said it was up to the Defense and Security Forces to decide if and when the border could open.

Rádio Moçambique is a key propaganda tool for the government of Mozambique, in particular in fostering a sense of national unity, something which doesn’t necessarily come naturally to the whole of the country. It is particularly important in the far northeastern corner of the country, the furthest point in Mozambique from the capital Maputo, and where of course state authority is being challenged by the insurgency.

The absence of banks is a continuing concern

Delays in restoring the banking services are causing concern to the population in northern Cabo Delgado. In Palma, the gradual return of the population is boosting business activity, with several shops reopened, streets busy with people and commercial activities, and even the fish market fully functioning. However, the flourishing of Palma's economy is not being followed by the return of banking services – the nearest bank to Palma is at Quitunda, 24 km south. This was one of the issues raised by local people to the administrator of Palma, João Buchili, claiming that they have nowhere to keep their savings.

The absence of banking services is also compromising the situation of pensioners in Nangade district. This is because changes have been made in the way pensions are paid to war veterans, which are now paid by bank transfer instead of cash. In Nangade, the only bank has been closed for much of the conflict, and locals have to travel to Mueda to access a bank. This could undermine counterinsurgency efforts, as many of the war veterans who are part of Local Forces will have to give up their weapons to sort out their bank accounts in Mueda.

Mozambican soldiers create panic in Mocímboa da Praia

In Mocímboa da Praia, one person was killed when drunk Mozambican soldiers began shooting wildly in the largely Makonde neighborhood of 30 de Junho, according to one local source. Lack of discipline is a chronic problem among the Mozambican security forces. In June last year, Minister of the Interior Arsénia Massingue said that elements of the police Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) were prone to getting drunk and abandoning their positions instead of fighting. Such incidents continue to undermine faith in government forces.

Spontaneous return to Mucojo

Displaced people who had taken refuge in Macomia district headquarters are returning to their homes around Mucojo in the east of the district due in part to lack of food and the need to tend to their land, according to a source. Shortages of food aid have been a longstanding issue across Cabo Delgado, but supplies are particularly scarce in Macomia where in some camps only 50 out of 300 people receive aid packages, the source claimed. People are now working in the once abandoned coastal villages of Pangane, Crimize, and Nambo, mostly in fishing. These returns have not been authorized by the government or the military.

Lesotho prime minister visits Cabo Delgado

Prime Minister of Lesotho Sam Matekane visited his country’s forces over the weekend in Nangade district, where they are serving in SAMIM operations in Mozambique. The permanent secretary of Nangade, José Njaz, thanked Matekane for his visit and the work of Lesotho troops, who are deployed alongside Tanzanian forces in the district. Though a much smaller contingent than the TPDF, local authorities are happier with their performance according to sources in the district.

Cabo Ligado